FYI.
bookmark.
Looks to be a good article. Will read later.
Just a hunch, but in 1918, the life expectancy was less than 50 years, so there would be a lot more young and middle aged adults with fewer to kill as they got older (even though the efficiency goes up with age). Also, more young people were working outside.
The bird flu reminds me of the scare last year, right before the elections, with the shortage of flu shots.
The 'flu pandemic' is just an excuse for the traitors in our government to move forward with the integration (not annexation which would be Constitutional if the procedures were followed) of Mexico and Canada in a "North American Partnership". This "partnership" effects a European Union like entity with all the trappings of a supranational government.
Develop a North American plan for pandemic influenza.*
The threat of an influenza pandemic requires planning and preparation by all three governments working together. Reaction and response to a pandemic requires cooperation and coordination at both a national and an international level to help minimize the health impact and the potential health effects on society, the economy and the health care system within an affected country.
Draft and complete a North American influenza plan by 2006. Explore the feasibility of establishing a coordinated influenza research agenda, including evaluating influenza immunization programs and tracking and updating the global inventory of pandemic influenza vaccine clinical research projects over the
next 12 months.
Developing and assessing strategic approaches to using vaccines and antiviral drugs will help control and/or slow down evolving outbreaks of avian influenza in humans. The harmonization of quarantine and travel medicine approaches will reduce discrepancies between national responses and facilitate both disease control and public
communications. The harmonization of policies on bioterrorism preparedness will minimize any discrepancies in national approaches and ensure common standards across North America.
By being able to react to a smallpox outbreak anywhere in North America, citizens will be protected as part of a global community. Over the next 9 months, use and build upon discussions in other forums (e.g. GHSI, World Health Organization) to improve Canada-U.S. pandemic preparedness (e.g. develop and assess strategic approaches to using
vaccines and antiviral drugs). Continue to conduct pandemic flu tabletop exercises. Share information and develop common plans for quarantine, travel and isolation during a transborder infectious disease outbreak by March 2006.
Plan and test 24/7/365 early warning case reporting infrastructure and implement plans for infectious disease control and containment by June 2006.
Hold key workshops by June 2007 on:
- Plague and Tularemia
- Detection of Bioterrorism Agents in the Environment
- Phase II Smallpox
- Early Warning Infectious Disease Surveillance.
Adopt common positions on guidance with regard to the international transport of diagnostic materials and samples by
March 2006.
Finalize an operational framework for the management and implementation of a global smallpox vaccine reserve (via World Health Organization ad hoc Orthopox Experts Committee) by June 2006.
http://www.fac-aec.gc.ca/spp/spp-en.pdf
Point One: No one knows how lethal H5N1 (or any animal pathogen) would be if it adapted to human hosts. Not knowing that makes it impossible to reliably predict the as-yet-unmutated virus' mortality rate
True. It could be 100% like HIV, only faster, or it could be like the common cold, or anywhere in between.
Point Two: And it should be no surprise that in 1918, circulation of military personnel was the leading vector for infecting civilian populations the world over. Nevertheless, while the United States is obviously involved in a war in 2005, it is not involved in anything close to trench warfare, and the total percentage of the U.S. population involved in Iraq and Afghanistan -- 0.005 percent -- is middling compared to the 2.0 percent involvement in World War I.
True. But how many people in 1918 went to games packed with 40-50,000 in a stadium? How many people took transcontinental or transoceanic flights with 200+ people from all over the globe packed like sardines breathing some portion of recirculated air? How many children went to school with hundreds of others every day and ate in the same lunchrooms, used the same restrooms and drank from the same fountains? How many ate from fast food restaurants or shopped in malls? (Have you ever caught a cold from a cashier handing you change after wiping her nose? How do you know?)
Point Three: health and nutrition levels have radically changed in the past 87 years. Though fears of obesity and insufficient school lunch nutrition are all the rage in the media, no one would seriously postulate that overall American health today is in worse shape than it was in 1918. The healthier a person is going into a sickness, the better his or her chances are of emerging from it. Sometimes it really is just that simple.
Even in 1918, it was noted that HEALTHY PEOPLE got sick in the morning and died within 24 hours. This is likely due, according to research on the 1918 flu and other viral contagions, to DIC or cytokine storms (in other words, viremia leading to platelet failure--or (and this is important)--cytokine storms, an extreme response of a healthy body to a viral pathogen, which response ends up being more lethal to the host than the pathogen was. Similar in some respects to extreme allergic reaction, although with SARS, corticosteroids didn't help much, if at all. These cytokine storms are particularly likely to occur with people who have STRONG immune systems.
Point Four: fourth factor, which will pull some of the strength out of any new pandemic, is even more basic than starting health: antibiotics. The 1918 pandemic virus was similar to the more standard influenza virus in that the majority of those who perished died not from the primary attack of the flu but from secondary infections -- typically bacteria or fungal -- that triggered pneumonia. While antibiotics are hardly a silver bullet and they are useless against viruses, they raise the simple possibility of treatment for bacterial or fungal illnesses. Penicillin -- the first commercialized antibiotic -- was not discovered until 1929, 11 years too late to help when panic gripped the world in 1918.
I'll just use a personal example here: My nephew, a very healthy, strong, football playing 17 yo Mormon died from today's ordinary garden variety flu. He didn't get pneumonia, he got cardiomyopathy from the flu. It took him a year to die, supported by the finest possible medical care in the country. He was on a waiting list for a donor heart, and didn't get one--he died 5 days before Christmas, 1999. And people made frail by illness die every day in this country from regular old bacteria and fungi which have steadily become more and more treatment resistant.
CONCLUSION: It's my opinion, and my opinion only, that the Avian Flu with mutate in China and go from the avian to the swine population just like thousands of other viruses have done, and infect humans worldwide. I even think it will happen this fall.
DISCLAIMER: I'm a retired nurse. I live in the boonies. I'm willing to be wrong. Your mileage may vary, and I have no argument about that. I've resigned from the debating society, and am just presenting my views here.
save