Virginia Governor's Race Close, Polls Show

Washington Post ^ | October 30, 2005 | BOB LEWIS

[ReaganLegion]

RICHMOND, Va. -- Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Jerry Kilgore are in a tight race for governor, two new statewide polls show.

In a poll conducted by The Washington Post and published in Sunday's editions, 47 percent of respondents said they would vote for Kaine, while 44 percent said they would vote for Kilgore. However, the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

"This is going to be a very close race that goes down to the wire," Kaine spokesman Mo Elleithee said.

The newspaper said 1,004 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 23 through Oct. 26.

Kilgore campaign manager Ken Hutcheson criticized the poll, saying results from GOP strongholds _ such as the Shenandoah Valley and southwest Virginia where Kilgore is from _ didn't make sense.

"In particular, their poll shows Jerry Kilgore losing southwestern Virginia by 5 points and statistically tied in the Shenandoah Valley," he said.

[Perdogg]

This is NOT good.

[Ligeia]

Memorandum

To	Kilgore for Governor Friends & Supporters
From	Ken Hutcheson, Campaign Manager Virginians for Jerry Kilgore
Date	October 30, 2005
Re	Washington Post Poll

There are some things you can count on. The sun will rise in the east. Night will follow day. Birds will fly south for the winter. And the final Washington Post poll of a Virginia gubernatorial campaign will be slanted against the Republican candidate in an effort to suppress Republican turnout.   

The Washington Post released its findings today and shows Tim Kaine with a 47-to-44 lead over Jerry Kilgore, a statistical tie when the margin of error of 3% is considered. On its face, the poll may indicate one thing or another. But if you reflect for a moment on the history of the Washington Post poll, it becomes clear that Jerry is well-positioned to win the election on November 8th.  

In 1993, the final Post poll shortchanged George Allen's percentage by six points. In 1997, Jim Gilmore won eight percent more of the vote than the Post gave him credit for. Mark Earley performed six points better than the Post predicted in 2001. Over the course of the last three gubernatorial races, the Post has misstated Republican performance by an average of 6.6 points. Most publications would shy away from continuing to publish such erroneous polls, but since the Post insists on doing so, it is incumbent upon us all once again to prove its fallibility.

History aside, why are we so confident that this new Post poll is patently flawed and wrong?

1. The new numbers are the result of a poll that was begun on the same day the Washington Post endorsed Tim Kaine.  Since that time, the editorial page has repackaged its endorsement and reprinted it almost daily. While these survey results may well reflect the sentiments and desires of liberal editorial writers, they in no way reflect reality.  

2. If you will notice in the poll analysis article, several regional breakdowns are not printed. Why? Because the Post poll shows that Jerry Kilgore is losing by five points in his home region of Southwest Virginia and tied in the Shenandoah Valley. Anyone familiar with the ongoing public polling in this race knows that Jerry Kilgore has had double digit leads in both of those regions and will win those regions by double digits. What is crystal clear is that while the Washington Post's worldview may stop at the Beltway, the Commonwealth of Virginia does not.  

3. The poll was conducted on Sunday through Wednesday of this past week. A quick glance back reveals that on early Sunday afternoon when the poll began, the Washington Redskins were playing a home game televised across the entire Commonwealth, the Martinsville NASCAR race was being televised and many families were still in church. The poll concluded its interviews on Wednesday night, another big night for church attendance in rural Virginia.

4. The new Post poll has Governor Warner's job approval rating at 80%. When all recent public polls have him hovering in the low 70's, one might infer by this particular number that the Post pollster may very well have over-sampled Democrats by anywhere from 6-8 points.

The bottom line is the Post ran a bad poll and they decided to report the faulty numbers anyway rather than admit there was a mistake and start over again. Think about it, a poll that shows Jerry losing in Southwest Virginia and tied in the Shenandoah Valley. It does not take much to conclude given these facts and the history of Washington Post poll consistently being inaccurate that the news today is based upon a bad poll that is not worth the paper it is printed on.

We all know the race is close and have said so repeatedly. We all know the Washington Post is not our friend and has again with this poll demonstrated a serious lack of judgment, and as a result, lacks the credibility to be taken seriously. And we all know that we have the superior ground operation to turn our vote out on Election Day. 

With less than 10 days to go in this campaign we are ready to implement an unprecedented get-out-the-vote operation unseen in Virginia politics. It will be this effort that assures success on November 8th. Thank you for your tremendous efforts so far in the campaign and with your help in the final "Countdown to Victory," we will be victorious.

---

Paid for and authorized by Virginians For Jerry Kilgore
(804) 421-9966 • (804) 421-9968 fax
P.O. Box 17098, Richmond, VA 23226

Political Contributions are not deductible for income tax purposes.

< snip >

[B Knotts]

I don't get it; why is this guy having such a hard time? Is Virginia just getting too liberal to elect a Republican? Or is this guy just hiding his conservatism too much?

[KoRn]

Unbelievable....What the hell is going on here?!?

It's shocking that someone as far left as a typical far left North Eastern Liberal Democrat could be in a statewide close race in VA.

[ReaganLegion]

Kilgore's having trouble because he has pissed off many of his core constiuents.

Folks don't seem to be very enthusiant about campaigning for him because on his refusals to return surveys about pro-life, second amendment, and anti-tax pledges.

Things are so far out of balance there is a movement for a write-in candidate - Philip Van Cleave. I actually saw a "Philip Van Cleave For Va Governor" bumpersticker yesterday on I-95.

It will be a shame if Kaine gets elected because Kilgore ran a poor campaign.

Here is an interesting view of the how Republicans view the effort -

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2005/10/is_the_hutch_a_.html

[Truth29]

Why is Kilgore having such a hard time? Without commenting on the probable bias of this pol, it is getting harder for statewide Republicans in Virginia because of the spreading cancer of Northern Virginia. There is a massive migration of liberals into the NVA suburbs of Washington, DC and each election shows a further spread. Fairfax County is now Democrat controlled. Arlington and Alexandria have long been lost. Add huge illegal immigrant populations and you have democrat majorities that are hard to overcome with Republican turnout in the rest of the state.

Additionally, democrats are targeting Republicans in delegate races, such as the 42nd which is now the most expensive state delegate race in Virginia history. The democrats are motivated and will turn out in high percentages. Republicans need to do even better with their turnout percentages.

[ReaganLegion]

Your Northern Virginia theory is False.

The 2004 Virginia election results showed strong Republican voting patterns. The only Democrat to win, incumbent Moran, only won by 52,000 votes.

Northern Virginia is made up of districts 10, 8, 11, and 1.

In 2004, District One was won by a Republican (Davis).
In 2004, District Eight was won by a Democrat (Moran).
In 2004, District Ten was won by a Republican (Wolf).
In 2004, District Eleven was won by a Republican (Davis).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2004/va/

[Blagden Alley]

I live in DC, and don't really know VA politics, even the NVA variety. But I am politically active here, at the local level, and do have a pretty good handle on political mechanics.

Given all the ads we've seen so far, I have a bit better idea who Tim Kaine is than Kilgore. Not what he stands for, just his face. He's sort of like Warner, is the pitch. And that's the image I have. Not an image I like, but an image.

Both (NVA TV) campaigns are otherwise cookie cutter, political consultant pick one from wedge issue A, one from B, one from C, call ad agency, run ad. No real personality.

I have no idea who is really ahead, or how well GOTV will be do for either. But good GOIV certainly sounds as if it's going to be the difference.

[Truth29]

Don't forget that Kerry won in Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax Counties. Warner also won in all three jurisdictions and the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors is heavily democrat. Check back in two weeks and Kaine will have won Northern Virginia. The only question is how big the margin is and if the balance of the state will vote for Kilgore in sufficient numbers to overcome the NVA advantage for Kaine.

[Kuksool]

The Wash Post has zero credibility with me. However, the Rassumeen Poll yield a similiar result. This is going to be a tight race either you look at.

BTW how are the GOP candidates doing in the races for Attorney General and LT Gov.?

[Corin Stormhands]

Your Northern Virginia theory is False.

No, it's spot on and it's precisely the reason for the shift in Virginia politics.

Yes, you are correct about the races you listed. But you must take into account the more suburban and, in some cases, rural localities that are part of those districts. And make no mistake about it. The design of those districts, which took place under a Republican Governor and Legislature, is not by accident.

Alexandria and Arlington are locked in for the liberals. And Fairfax County is trending more and more that way.

[ReaganLegion]

Really? Spot on huh?

Here are the official Fairfax County election returns from November 2004.

Notice how Republicans candidates (like Frank Wolf, and Thomas Davis) won easily. Bush only loss to Kerry by just 33,700 out of 460,000 votes cast. Hardly a Democratic bastion.


http://www.co.fairfax.va.us/eb/result/RESU0407.pdf

[Corin Stormhands]

You missed my point about redistricting. Fairfax is split between the 8th, 10th and 11th Districts. That is not by accident.

Jim Moran won his portion of Fairfax County by 17 pts.

So, yeah. Spot on.

[Ligeia]

I've scanned the other threads and can't find it but there was some information posted indicating the other two statewide GOP candidates are ahead outside the margin of error and the Virginia General Assembly will remain in GOP hands. Unfortunately, since the teachers' union voted in our primary supporting the RINOs who unnecessarily raised taxes, only one GOP challenger was able to pick off a sitting tax-hiker. He looked like a good candidate until his driving record was made public with about 15 speeding tickets. Yet to see how voters will like that development.