Skip to comments.Mark Steyn: Russia is dying and Islamists will grab parts of the carcass
Posted on 10/30/2005 11:04:36 AM PST by Dundee
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And what exctly does that mean if not a level of AIDS like that of Africa...except its not.
A rate of growth of cases in Russia roughly parallel to the historic rate of growth in Africa.
IOW, the raw number of cases isn't the particular concern, but the rate of growth in number of cases is.
Italy legalized abortion in 1981.
Russia legalized it in 1920
Some history and facts
Sources: The Library of Congress Country Studies; CIA World Factbook
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With the exception of a few ethnic groups in the North Caucasus, birthrates for all nationalities in Russia have generally declined in the postwar period (see Ethnic Composition, ch. 4). Throughout the Soviet period, urbanization was rapid, and urban families generally had fewer children than rural ones. The urbanization process ended in 1992, when for the first time in the postwar period a smaller percentage of the Russian population lived in cities than the year before. By that time, however, substantial reasons existed for Russians to limit the size of their families. The population decline of the Russians has been especially pronounced in comparison with other ethnic groups. In many of the twenty-one republics, the titular nationalities have registered higher birthrates and larger average family sizes than the Russian populations.
The birthrate of Russians already was falling dramatically in the 1960s, moving from 23.2 per 1,000 population at the beginning of the decade to 14.1 in 1968. By 1983 the rate had recovered to 17.3 per 1,000, stimulated by a state program that provided incentives for larger families, including increased maternity benefits. Another decline in the birthrate began in 1987, and by 1993 the rate was only 9.4 per 1,000. According to the projections of the Center for Economic Analysis, after reaching its lowest point (8.0 per 1,000) in 1995, the birthrate will rise gradually to 9.7 per 1,000 in 2005.
In the turnaround year of 1992, the number of births in Russia dropped by 207,000 (13 percent) compared with 1991, and the number of deaths increased by 116,000 (7 percent). The fertility rate has dropped in both urban and rural areas. In the early 1990s, the lowest rates were in the northwest, especially St. Petersburg and in central European Russia. The disparity between birth and death rates was especially pronounced in the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg and in the European oblasts of Pskov, Tula, Tver', Belgorod, Leningrad, Novgorod, Yaroslavl', Moscow, Tambov, and Ivanovo. In 1992 natural population growth occurred only in the republics of Kalmykia, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachayevo-Cherkessia, North Ossetia, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Gorno-Altay, Sakha, and Tyva, and in Tyumen' and Chita oblasts of western and eastern Siberia, respectively. However, although fertility rates in the predominantly Muslim republics of the North Caucasus and the Volga region continued to exceed those of the Slavic population, by 1995 the rate was declining even in Dagestan, the republic with the highest birthrate in Russia.
For Russians the total fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman of childbearing age will have at current birthrates, fell from 2.0 in 1989 to 1.4 in 1993. The State Committee for Statistics (Goskomstat) estimates that the rate will decline further to 1.0 by the year 2000. Roughly half as many children were born in 1993 as in 1987. In 1994 the population of Russia fell by 920,000.
The sharp decline in the fertility rate in the 1990s was linked to the social and economic troubles triggered by the rapid transition to a market economy and resulting unemployment. Families have been destabilized, and living standards for many have fallen from even the modest levels of the Soviet era (see The Family, ch. 5). Under such circumstances, decisions on marriage and childbearing often are postponed. Particularly in the cities, housing has been extremely hard to acquire, and the percentage of working wives has increased significantly in the post-Soviet era (see The Role of Women, ch. 5). The number of common-law marriages, which produce fewer children than traditional marriages, has increased since the 1960s, as has the percentage of babies born to unattached women.
History also has affected the absolute number of births. The birthrate during World War II was very low, accounting for part of the low birthrate of females in the 1960s, which in turn lowered the rate in the 1990s. Between 1989 and 1993, the number of women in the prime childbearing age-group decreased by 1.3 million, or 12 percent, making a major contribution to the 27 percent decline in births during that period. Between 1990 and 1994, the government's official estimate of the infant mortality rate rose from 17.4 per 1,000 live births to 19.9, reflecting deterioration of Russia's child care and nutrition standards. But Russia has not used international viability standards for newborns, and one Western estimate placed the 1995 rate at 26.3. Between 1992 and 1995, the official maternal mortality rate also rose from forty-seven to fifty-two deaths per 100,000 births.
Fertility in Russia has been adversely affected by the common practice of using abortion as a primary means of birth control. In 1920 the Soviet Union was the first country to legalize abortion. Sixteen years later it was prohibited, except in certain circumstances, to compensate for the millions of lives lost in the collectivization of agriculture and the widespread famine that followed in the 1930s. The practice was fully legalized once again in 1968, and an entire industry evolved offering abortion services and encouraging women to use them. Although abortions became easily available for most women, an estimated 15 percent of the Soviet total were performed illegally in private facilities. Because of the persistent lack of contraceptive devices in both Soviet and independent Russia (and the social taboo on discussion of contraception and sex in general, which continued in the 1990s), for most women abortion remains the only reliable method of avoiding unwanted pregnancy (see Health Conditions; Sexual Attitudes, ch. 5). Russia continues to have the highest abortion rate in the world, as did the Soviet Union. In the mid-1990s, the Russian average was 225 terminated pregnancies per 100 births and ninety-eight abortions for every 1,000 women of childbearing age per year--a yearly average of 3.5 million. An estimated one-quarter of maternal fatalities result from abortion procedures.
Data as of July 1996
Italy legalized abortion (1981
1920 - Lenin legalized all abortions in the Soviet Union.
1936 - Joseph Stalin reversed Lenin's legalization of abortion in the Soviet Union to increase population growth.
Officially Registered Induced Abortion on Demand in the Russian Federation, by Types of Abortion, 1970-1992*
1970 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992
Total abortions (thousands) 4,670 4,506 4,415 3,920 3,442 3,531**
Early (mini) abortions (thousands) n.a. n.a n.a. 952 829 914
Abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-49 134.9 127.8 115.7 108.8 100.3 98.1
Abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-49 (early) n.a n.a. n.a 26.5 23.6 25.4
Abortions per 100 births 200.5 192.9 184.2 195.3 199.4 224.62
SOURCE: Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (MZRF), 1993
NOTES: * Departmental statistics not included.
** Some departmental statistics included.
n.a. = No data available
Since the 1970s, Russia's decline in fertility was primarily accomplished by a very high abortion rate. Moreover, induced abortion in Russia has been used not only for birth limitation, but also for birth spacing. The substitution of abortion with effective methods of contraception has yet to take place on a large scale, and induced abortion is still the primary method of family planning in Russia. In addition, because abortion services remain inadequate, clandestine abortions are performed at a very high rate.
The issue of induced abortion in Russia may be viewed not only as a national problem, but also as an extreme case relevant to world-wide population policy discourse. Russia can be used as a model of what happens when information, services, and contraception are unavailable or inadequate. A system of family planning services has yet to be created in Russia. It is one of the few economically developed countries where abortion still prevails over the use of contraceptives in family planning. The difference between Russia and all Western countries lies not only in this temporal lag, but also in the continuing and widespread underestimation of this as a social problem for Russia.
Nevertheless, we expect a deterioration in the situation as a result of the problem of AIDS and great changes in sexual behavior (especially among the young), changing demographics, and increasing democratization in Russian society.
Basic Health Indicators: (information from WHO, 2002)
GDP per capita: $8,486
Life expectancy at birth: 64.8 years - 58.4 (men); 72.1 (women)
Population growth 1992-2002: -0.3; fertility rate 1.2
An Abortion? What's the Big Deal?
By Anna Arutunyan The Moscow News
With Russia's abortion rate the highest in the world, is a lackadaisical attitude towards this phenomenon another attribute of the "enigmatic Russian soul?"
According to a compilation from the Demographic Yearbook of the European Council and an analogous Demographic Yearbook by the United Nations, Russia is the only nation in the world where abortions consistently outnumber live births by a ratio of about 2 to 1. In 1970, for example, there were only 1.9 million births and 4.8 million abortions.
Voluntary Surgical Sterilization in Post-Soviet Russia of the Early 1990s
Voluntary surgical contraceptive sterilization was legalized in the USSR in the early 1990s. Earlier such sterilization was strictly prohibited in the USSR pursuant to Stalin's prohibition of abortion. During that time, numerous policies were introduced to curtail individual reproductive freedom and increase fertility. During the 60 years between the end of the 1930s and the early 1990s, this method of sterilization was not officially recognized and, as a result, was considered to be clandestine. Contraceptive sterilization could be obtained by payment ("under the table") or through an "acquaintance" only.
The prohibition of voluntary surgical contraceptive sterilization extended until 1990, when the Order of the Ministry of Health of the USSR No. 484, "On permission for surgical sterilization of women," was published. However, judging by personal communications with practicing physicians in the larger cities of the former USSR, this method was very rarely used for contraception in the early 1990s.
Is it complacency among most Russians these days that keeps Putin's group in power or the same old rule-with-an-iron-fist tactics? I think it's complacency. But I think things could change. just not everywhere in Russia at once. I think the Russia's biggest problem is that it's just too darn big.
We proud our territory and military traditions. Probably like no one Russian ppl have empire spirit but it never went out with aggression against other country. Now Russians actually young generation admires Putin and his politic course You should watch recent Russian blockbuster "9 Rota" which beated all records in Russia. Movie is about Afganistanian war
Uhhhm, yea. The chinese are also not doing well when you apply those same set of standards to them!
Did you know that China also has a very Serious problem with Islamic insurgency in it's western provences? You don't hear about it much because it is covered up by the Chinese Communist party. This is the "Offical" reasoning behind the Shanghai Coorperative Organization. Also, both countries have growing internal dissent, according to the MSM.
At the same time, Russia and China arm Iran and Syria. Very stupid on their part
It seems to me that Russia (or a major part of it) is bound to improve in terms of standard of living, birth rate, etc, for those reasons alone.
Yes, and 3 years ago it was 56 for males, welcome to the come back. Instead of taking a snap shot and finding all the negatives, its wiser to follow trends.
Frankly, we, here in the US, have some of the world's most leftist abortion laws.
Its the fact that the 6 years of his reign the country is growing, government workers are paid (including back wages), the unemployment rate is 7.9% (lower then most of europe: Germany 12.5%, France 11%, Poland 19%), foreign factories are flooding into the country, the Chechens are down to a few large attacks a year (the last was a total failure where they lost 5 men for every Russian killed), taxes are low (our are absolutely communist in comparison). Other then that, must be their lack of desire to return to the "freedom" of Yeltsin when they were economically raped every day while the Yeltsin intelligencia told them how stupid they were every day.
But you use your own judgement as to why.
You do realize that most of the fighting in Chechnya is now between pro-Russian Chechens and Islamics, right?
IMDB says "9 Rota" stars Fyodor Bondarchuk. Any relation to Natalya Bondarchuk, who co-starred in Solyaris?
I guess that doesn't include anyone from the Russian government or armed forces at all, either up front or behind the scenes. Either way, it's a mess.
Nope, can't argue with that.
That's a wise attitude. The Russian Orthodox church is making a very powerful revival, and all kinds of pre-revolutionary movements and ideas are taking root again.
Just last week, I saw that the Cossack ethnic group, unoffical police force/army, Orthodox crusaders are coming back in force. A lot of good things are on the move in Russia. They also have a great deal of money, and a very realistic attitude about their Muslim friends and neighbors.
Wouldn't count them out, things can change pretty fast.
In 1974 a referendum to repeal the 1970 Divorce Law was defeated, thereby confirming existing legislation. Other failed referendums included those on the repeal of legislation to increase police powers to combat terrorism and organised crime (1981), to legalise abortion (1981)...
I read this story 2-3 weeks ago and misread it, taking it to mean that the 1981 referendum was to legalize abortion in Italy and that it had failed. In fact, abortion in Italy was legalized in 1978 and reaffirmed by the 1981 referendum.
But, interestingly, the fertility rate in Italy has been below replacement level (2.1) since 1975.
At the same time, I researched the history in Russia. What doesn't get discussed much is the historic lack of suitable alternative birth control methods in Russia.... nor the living conditions, housing situ (waiting for an apartment), lines to necessities, women in the labor force, alcoholism, a KGB agent around every corner, a not-optimistic world view, oppression in general, suppression of religion...that affect child-bearing decisions. And life in Russia has been such that children were apparently a luxury that many people felt they could not afford.
For my part, I won't pass judgement on them because I would not willingly change places/ have changed places with them.
Given the declining fertility rates all across the 'modern' world, perhaps the surprise is that Russian women are having as many children as they are.
I didn't make the comment about arresting the death spiral, but I agree with your above comment about immigration.
Problem is that not all immigration is good immigration.
*One would want immigrants who AREN'T going IMMEDIATELY to the welfare rolls (elder family members of new immigrants), medical system (sick family members of new immigrants) or prison system (felon new immigrants a la Castro's dumping).
*Also many new immigrants come here purely for the education, take it home and then are out-source workers. That's a double whammy against us.
*Immigrants who would want to demolish our Christian society aren't welcome either, as far as I'm concerned. I don't want gay marriage MOSTLY because that would open the door for Islam's 4-wife marriage arrangement or Farsi's/India's anything-goes marriages.
Christmas and Easter stay, so do God and Jesus.
*Terrorists, of course, can stay home and pull the bomb cord in their own backyard.
Immigrants who work hard and play by the rules (Arnie's definition) are welcome. That excludes the 11,000,000 illegals here. They are UNwelcome, no matter where they come from or how hard they work or for how little they work. We get enough LEGAL ones to add to our population....and they are welcome, with the above *caveats.
You are corrext. Slicing off parts of countries is what the big-stick countries do. Always have; always will. Those who are the slicers think it's OKAY. Those who are the slicees get pissed. Nothing too new here.
Germany lost land to Poland in 1945, with the requiste ethnic cleansing of Germans from the area. Kurt Mansur, a symphony conductor, was born and raised in Germany but his home is now, by virtue of slicing, in Poland. I only know that because I saw him this past weekend conducting Tchaikovsky's 5th sumphony. He is German and from Silesia; I had to google it.
The U.N. sliced up land to make Israel.
Slicing up always creates winners and losers. Thus is the fodder for FUTURE wars. It never ends. Again, you are correct -- "no surprise."
You think that PUTIN controls the Russian Orthodox Church?
I respectfully disagree, Julius. If Stalin couldn't control the Church, with his army of slashers, gulagers and such, I don't think Putin can. If all the combined 80-year efforts of the Communist Party couldn't control the Church, I don't believe that Putin can or does either. No one is that powerful.
I think you give him way too much credit.
Russian history has always been interesting, especially, I think, with the ebb and flow of foreign wives gotten for the Czars. The mix with Europe, then AND NOW, won't do damage to Russia; it will make it better.
"Rus" is the word for "oar," that is, the men with the oars -- Viking Swedes. The nordic influence is strong. The nordic people, of course, are Germanic.
I think it will take Russia AT LEAST three generations to recover from Communism. It's taking the Germans more time too. Everyone expected the Germans to recover zip-bang because, well, because they are Germans. Lol. No matter what the Germans do, it will never be enough, soon enough or good enough. That is the anti-Germanism we have in this country.
But the ravages of communism linger for, imho, at least three generations, no matter who was under its heinous heel.
They are anecdotal but interesting. For Russia's sake, I hope they are true. They MAY be.
And who brought up those Russian men? Russian women.
Their hatred of their OWN men is very sad....their fathers, brothers, cousins, grandfathers, sons, husbands. Very sad. Shows their own self-hatred.
The Russian brides are clones of the Asian women who hook the 25-years-older sucker-American man for $$$$, to bring in their sick, elderly and poor family....and their own children who are stuck in poverty "back home."
These American men are looking for young doormats because they don't have anything worthwhile to offer American women. Any man who would buy a male-order bride, from Asia, Russia or wherever, is NOT the man any American woman would want.
He is a LOSER. The bride-for-sale is also a LOSER.
Check out the divorce rate of mail-order brides. They almost ALWAYS occur j-u-s-t five years after the marriage....JUST when SHE gets her ciitizenship and learns enough English to say, "I want a divorce, with alimony and child support. I want all the property, cash, bonds and savings. And YOU are paying for it, sucker, the lawyer fees included."
Nothing new here. "There's a sucker born every minute." :o)
Proofread? You proofread? Lol. What a concept.
Good analysis. Steyn doesn't pass the smell test for me either.
Many people in the world don't want Russia to heal. There is that same feeling about Germany.
Wishing, hoping for the failure of another country is not good thinking. A country's failure is bad for everyone in the long run. One likes to see prosperity in the world. Otherwise, those failed countries will be knocking at OUR door. Lol. OOops, that's not very altruistic of me, is it?
I don't think they hope it will out right fail, I think they hope that it will collapse enough to rise as a new Nazi Germany type and then these armchair warriors will have a purpose in life to fight against....Cold War's end left a lot of people with no purpose in life....and after 14 years they're still searching and pushing to return to the "Good Ole Days". Islam just hasn't provided the big enough crusade.
Thanks I didn't find this info on my cursory, first Google look.
But in comparison to other countries, it is mind boggling to me that we Americans have the most far-reaching and extreme and most punitive-kill-the-most helpless laws (i.e. Partial Birth infanticide and kill the "vegetable laws)for our alive and growing American children in their mothers' wombs and helpless disabled laws in the eentire world!
The most relevant question to ask is:
Who would encourage the most materially blessed nation in the world to have American mothers put their own children -- their posterity and ours -- to death and encourage other countries to do the same through U.S.AID and our own native population controllers to do the same?
By the way, no American citizen has to be a far right-wing,fanatical religious zealot to ask this question.
I would agree with you, except that the muSLUMS are particularly aggressive now, and I don't know if the Russians have the means or the will to fight them off while at the same time trying to claim a "new life" after said 80 long years of hell on earth. Can you leave one hell and fight off another if your infrastructure is rapidly deteriorating?
In any case, the Russians have always had "friendly" relations with U.S. enemies, whether or not they claim to be our friends. I see no reason to think that will ever change.
It was my belief that during the Communist era the Church was fully persecuted, forced to live almost underground, with its churches closed. Its priests were all but shut down.
My mother visited Russia in 1971. From her perspective, as a tourist, there WAS no Russian Orthodox Church.
In any respect that is past history. I still don't believe that Putin controls the Russian Orthodox Church.
They must have, considering how much they drank. Just do a google search, not hard to find the info.
Bump for later read.
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