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To: dorathexplorer
I think part of it is that the human to human transmission is taking place and the mortality rate is 55%. That's really high for a flu.

Now that birds with this have been found in Europe and now Canada, it might be the reason.

7 posted on 11/01/2005 9:04:58 AM PST by Solson (I've got eyes in the back of my head.)
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To: Solson
I think part of it is that the human to human transmission is taking place and the mortality rate is 55%. That's really high for a flu.

That is exactly the reason for concern. While there is no reason to believe that the mortality rate will be that high if avian flu became a readily transmissible disease and struck the US, if the mortality rate was even 1% and one third of our population was infected, that would be one million deaths.

Fortunately, the SARS outbreak was very helpful on teaching us how to fight a modern highly transmissible virus. Simple things like opening the windows of the hospitals greatly reduced the infection rate (because the aerosolized viruses were sucked out of hospital rooms and killed instead of being allowed to concentrate). It also showed who needed to be protected the most. The elderly had a greater than 50% mortality rate while young adults had single percentage mortality rates. If bird flu hits, simple things like opening the windows in nursing homes or in any place where a large number of people congregate could save lives. SARS also showed us that China will cover up a deadly disease if given the chance. If there is a bird flu outbreak, I would expect the same.

26 posted on 11/01/2005 9:27:30 AM PST by burzum (Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, small minds discuss people.-Adm H Rickover)
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To: Solson
I think part of it is that the human to human transmission is taking place and the mortality rate is 55%. That's really high for a flu.

Now that birds with this have been found in Europe and now Canada, it might be the reason. Human to human transmission has not taken place.

Tamiflu (oseltamivir) resistance already exists in H5N1. Relenza (zanamivir) hardly exists. Taking either of them as a prophylactic course is incredibly irresponsible, but a national stockpile for treatment ONLY is not a terrible idea (for any flu season). It is, of course, still a totally hopeless means of containing a pandemic. The only bit of luck on our side is that if H5N1 steals the genetic material it needs for human to human transmission, it will probably make it less fatal. H5N1 has not neccessarily been found in Canada. An H5 type has been found but it hasn't been subtyped. Don't get excited yet, we'll know by end of week I think.

32 posted on 11/01/2005 9:42:56 AM PST by Sols
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