The potential upside would come from the Likud Party once again standing for something -- for secular right wing values. This disengagement from Sharon can provide an opportunity for straight talk in Israeli politics, and for an end to the hypocracy in which the Likud loyalists are called "rebels", like something out of George Orwell's 1984. The disengagement of Sharon from Likud removes an increasingly undemocratic leader and creates an opportunity for democracy to flourish in the executive and legislative branches of Israel's government (now if Ruti Gavison and others who believe in a limited role for the judiciary are named to the Supreme Court -- or, better yet, if Israel adopts a constitution, then the revolution would be complete).
If the Likud, as the secular right-wing, can identify a leader with character, and form an alliance with the religious right wing, and if the combination (minus the 14 or so seats that are abandoning Likud to follow Sharon) can pick up another 6 or so seats, then there is the possibility of a right-wing/religious alliance.
Best of all, this would finally end the anti-democratic machinations of Shimon Peres.
The risks, of course, are that (a) Peretz finds his way into the government, either as Prime Minister or as one of the king-makers, and the revitalized left wing again leads Israel down the path of protekzia, corruption and socialism, together with radical dovish policies regarding the Palestinian arabs, or (b) Condeleezza Rice and her Arabist tendencies destroy the new government that emerges, if it is not led by Amir Peretz.
The first test will be to see if anyone who can command respect emerges to become Likud's new leader. At the moment, I have no idea whom that could be.
"The potential upside would come from the Likud Party once again standing for something -- for secular right wing values."
Thanks much; this is helpful.
Agree with your post fully.