Schröder's legacy will haunt Merkel (Angela Merkel to be Formally Elected Tomorrow)

Financial Times ^ | November 21 2005 | Wolfgang Munchau

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Tomorrow's formal election of Angela Merkel as Germany's chancellor will not mark a new era in economic policy. But in one respect there is a cause for guarded optimism. German foreign policy towards both the European Union and the US may become more stable and predictable.

Ms Merkel intends to return to the foreign policy doctrine that prevailed under Helmut Kohl, the last Christian Democrat chancellor. Mr Kohl managed to combine unwavering support for European integration - often in seeming contradiction to the national interest - with a firm commitment to transatlantic relations. It was this policy that made Germany, more than Britain, a diplomatic bridge between the US and the EU during his chancellorship.

When Gerhard Schröder became chancellor in 1998, he altered both elements of the doctrine. He was never an instinctive European. During his seven-year term in office he failed to build effective alliances in the EU and picked numerous fights, especially with the European Commission. At the same time, German foreign policy became gradually less transatlantic. Mr Schröder's decision to exploit anti-American sentiments during the 2002 election campaign has done lasting damage to US-German relations.

Mr Schröder has said frequently that under his leadership Germany has turned into an "emancipated" mid-sized political power. I would argue that, on the contrary, Germany is politically less relevant today than at any time since the second world war. This decline in power is to a large extent the result of his catastrophic foreign policy.

Against this backdrop, what can we expect Ms Merkel to achieve? She is a committed Atlanticist. She will seek good relations with President George W. Bush, and she will try do so without sacrificing the Franco-German alliance. Her relations with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will not be quite as close as Mr Schröder's.

Ms Merkel's stance on European integration is not quite so obvious. We know that she is in favour of closer European integration in principle. She supported the now defunct European constitution.

Like many continental European integrationists, she opposes Turkish membership of the EU. She is said to be keen to re-establish a close working relationship with some of the smaller EU countries.

Yet her rhetoric on Europe is less passionate and more rehearsed than Mr Kohl's. One has the sense that Europe is not her main priority. I would expect Wolfgang Schäuble, Ms Merkel's future interior minister and an indefatigable proponent of integration, to play a prominent role in the future European debate.

What about Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the new foreign minister and a Social Democrat? Mr Steinmeier spent most of his political career as Mr Schröder's chief of staff in Berlin and previously in Hanover, when Mr Schröder was premier of Lower Saxony. According to diplomats, he is not comfortable conversing in English, nor is he considered to be particularly expert in foreign policy. He also lacks front-line political experience, having operated behind the scenes most of his career. US officials still remember Mr Steinmeier as the co-architect of Mr Schröder's policy on Iraq.

However, in Germany foreign policy is usually determined by the chancellor, not the foreign minister. In the past, there were some notable exceptions to this rule. One was the 1966-1969 grand coalition, when the job of foreign minister was held by Willy Brandt, who later became the first SPD chancellor. But in this case, I would expect the rule to hold. Ms Merkel is clearly the senior figure. She will set the policy. Mr Steinmeier will be the chief diplomat.

All in all, the style of German foreign policy will probably change for the better. The real question is whether this matters. There are four reasons to think that it might not.

First, during the Schröder years, public opinion in Germany has turned progressively more anti-American. Iraq may have been the trigger for this development but the trend had already set in before September 11. The change in sentiment towards the US was probably more pronounced in Germany than in any other European country. Turning back the clock on transatlantic relations would have to involve more than subtle diplomacy.

Second, there will be just as many substantive disagreements with Washington, if not more, under the new government. Germany will still not be sending troops to Iraq. Ms Merkel and Mr Bush disagree on a whole range of issues, from climate change to Turkish EU membership.

Third, the German political class has become far more inward-looking since unification. Domestic politicians such as Mr Schröder have often portrayed the European Commission as an institution infested with Anglo-Saxon libertarian zealots who are out to destroy German industry.

Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, Germany's persistently disappointing economic performance will act as an over-arching constraint on the effectiveness of any foreign policy. An economically feeble Germany is going to be politically feeble. In the long run, the best foreign policy would be to sort out the economy. Yet this is not what the grand coalition will do.

In spite of all this, a new style of foreign policy may still achieve something. But it would be a mistake to expect too much of Germany's new chancellor.

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From the article:

Ms Merkel intends to return to the foreign policy doctrine that prevailed under Helmut Kohl, the last Christian Democrat chancellor. Mr Kohl managed to combine unwavering support for European integration - often in seeming contradiction to the national interest - with a firm commitment to transatlantic relations. It was this policy that made Germany, more than Britain, a diplomatic bridge between the US and the EU during his chancellorship.

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Yep, she'll do her best to repair the damage done by that Sauerkraut Schroder.

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Schroeder on his way out. Farewell Parade by Bundeswehr.

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Thanks for posting these pics.