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Posted on 11/24/2005 6:32:58 PM PST by Paleo Conservative
If you want on or off my aerospace ping list, please contact me by Freep mail.
Cool! There's a lot to be thankful for.
Cool. That should help with the trade deficit.
And if that new plastic 787 turns out to be half as good as they say it will be, Boeing will be in fat city for some years to come.
I think they'll be plowing profits into developing a 737 replacement based on the technologies developed for the 787.
Except who needs a 737 composite replacement when the Next Gen is going so strong? Maybe in the year 2020!
If the manufacturing costs of the composite 787 are really significantly lower than for conventional aluminum, Boeing would be in a position to significantly dent Airbus's share of the narrow body market. Sure the 737 line is doing well, but the narrow body market is so large (Boeing builds almost 30 737's per month) there could be room for more than just two manufacturers. Embraer has already launched the E190 which is larger than a regional jet. Canadair is working on an MD-80 sized jet that could compete with part of the 737 line especially the 737-600 which is a bit heavy. Replacing the 737 may be like eating their own children. But hey if Boeing doesn't do it, someone else will.
What if mfg costs are not significantly lower? What if there is a finite supply of composite materials? And how about the BBJ? Interesting concept of Embraer and Canadair competitors. But are they significant?
Bombadier got a loan from the british government to fund part of the development of their new plane.
Look out Boeing, here comes Bombardier
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1374394/posts
Can't find the artcle about the brit loan to them.
But where are they going to get all the proprietary technology to make it successful?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1528180/posts?page=15#15
Worst economy since Herbert Hover...
If the manufacturing costs of the composite 787 are really significantly lower than for conventional aluminum, Boeing would be in a position to significantly dent Airbus's share of the narrow body market.
Another factor is composites might be better suited for the short-haul market. Short haul wear and tear is cause by take-off and landing cycles. Short haulers tend to wear out about twice as fast as long-haulers. Since the composite airplanes are supposed to be considerably stronger, they should last longer.
My guess is the 737 follow-on will focus on the 150 to 225 seat market, and will not go after the 100-125 seat segment. Embraer's jungle jets and the Bombardier CSeries going to take over that market.
Despite the original talk of the 787 being a replacement for both the 757 and 767, it seems now the 787 is clearly a 767 replacement.
I'm still betting for sooner, rather than later, for the 737 replacement.
Even a 777-200ER replacement if the 787-10 is launched.
Why do you say that???
Because the 787-8's and 787-3's seating capacity is just below the seating capacity of the 767-300 (and the 787-9's capacity is greater than the largest 767, the 767-400). And the 787's seating capacity has crept up over the last year as Boeing has refined the design.
Also, the 787 is heavily targeting the long-range market, and the 757 has seen only limited use in the long-range market.
The 787-3, the medium range version of the 787, is 48% bigger than the 757-200, the primary version of the 757.
The 175-225 seat market will be the next big gap Boeing and Airbus need to address.
Which is why I think Boeing will launch the 737 follow-on sooner rather than later. Let Airbus spend a bunch of money on the A380 and the A350. If Boeing can do for the 150-225 seat market what the 787 promises to do for the 250 to 300 seat market, they will clean up.
I almost have to wonder if these Boeing decisions are part of a grand strategic plan to screw Airbus. Boeing has led Airbus to commit large sums of money after limited markets. Boeing has held its own with the derivative 737 in the largest jetliner market, and Boeing has cleaned up where it has developed new airplanes (777 and 787), forcing Airbus to commit significant R&D to the A350, after Boeing already dominated this market with 787 orders. Now Boeing is reducing the market for the A380 by launching a 747 derivative. It's like Boeing's plan is to force Airbus to commit so much money they will not be able to respond to a new 150-175 seat airplane.
Boeing try to screw Airbus? You think!
The 787 was originally planned as a middle of the market replacement. Whether that is 767/757 or 767 is your call.
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