If Willis does this as a "traditional" war movie, then you probably will be right about the movie receipts -- Will probably do better in rentals. What we need to see in a movie is how successful the Coalition has been and how much they have accomplished in such a short time all things considered. The movie should also allow the Iraqi people to show their gratitude to us in this movie, something the MSM ignores. Our troops have rebuilt a country, destroyed not just by War, but first and foremost by Saddam who only cares about his palaces and rebuilding his vision of Babylon.
Too hard to do in under 2 hours and with a likely cost of $120 million in production and marketing costs. The movie would have to do about $200 million (I read studios get $.55/$1 of ticket sales) to break even. The movie will likely be dismissed as propaganda.
I'd be interested in watching it but it's a huge risk to undertake.