[rhombus]

If he does start out as a front runner for the Republicans, all I can do is pray that he gets beat really bad after NH (all over again).

Watch out. NH supported him over Bush in 2000.

[saveliberty]

Yes. But remember that W was supposed to be a weak candidate and even his own brother (hard to forgive Jeb for that) commented that he didn't think that W was ready to be President.

Also, I do see that NH is no longer the bellwether of mainstream America. It's a different place than it was 20 years ago.

[Verginius Rufus]

McCain won the NH primary in 2000 with the votes of non-Republicans who were allowed to vote in the Republican primary. If Bill Bradley had been a more plausible alternative to Gore, they might have voted in the Democrat primary instead and then Bush would have won the Republican primary.

I don't think McCain won any states in 2000 where the primary was restricted to the actual members of the party in question. He would have the same problem in 2008, only more so--he might win some primaries with the help of Democrats and Independents, but would have no chance in the closed-primary states.