[liliesgrandpa]

The smallest living organism requires a minimum of 239 individual protein molecules.
Protein molecules are made from amino acids.
Amino acids are made of carbon, hydrogen nitrogen and oxygen.
Amino acids joined together in a long twisted string form a protein molecule.
Each protein molecule requires a minimum of 410 amino acids. All formed in left handed spirals. (Protein molecules do not have right handed spirals for some unknown reason.)
The chances of at least 410 amino acids accidentally forming a chain to produce one protein molecule is 10123.
The odds against this happening in at least 239 protein molecules to form the smallest living organism are 1029345.
The odds of that one organism surviving long enough to learn to eat, breathe and reproduce are beyond calculation.
You have better odds of having an explosion in a sand pile and getting a fully operating computer with a copy of XP with no bugs! Good luck

[Rudder]

You should be thankful that evolution is not the game of chance as you have falsely implied, or you wouldn't be here.

[TheGhostOfTomPaine]

The smallest living organism . . .

All true, which means "chance" can't be the explanation; on that, all sides are agreed.

Of course, the odds against Avogadro's number of sodium chloride molecules "just happening" to arrange itself into a cubic crystal are also so astronomically huge as to make the event a practical impossibility.

The conclusion we draw there is that some sort of physical law is at work -- a conclusion that would be justified even if we couldn't yet state the law precisely, as long as there was no compelling reason to the contrary.

What we need from the ID crowd, and haven't seen (and in my opinion aren't going to see), is just such a compelling reason to the contrary.

[DaGman]

"The chances of at least 410 amino acids accidentally forming a chain to produce one protein molecule is 10123.
The odds against this happening in at least 239 protein molecules to form the smallest living organism are 1029345.
The odds of that one organism surviving long enough to learn to eat, breathe and reproduce are beyond calculation."

I don't know from where you get your probability calculations, but assuming they are correct, if these processes occured millions and millions of times, one would get 410 amino acids forming a protein molecule fairly quickly and easily. Same with forming the smallest organism.

[KeepUSfree]

And if these things occured on a second or so worldwide, in the 6 BILLION years they earth has been around that means that this could have occurred 6,000,000 x 365 x 24 x 60 x 60 = 1,892,160,000,000,000 times so far (at a minimum)...so those "1 in a billion" odds don't look so bad when you do something 1 quadrillion times....

[RogueIsland]

I'm curious. If you deal every card in a deck of playing cards out in front of you, what are the odds of you dealing the exact sequence of cards you end up with? Funny thing, those probabilities.

[CarolinaGuitarman]

" The chances of at least 410 amino acids accidentally forming a chain to produce one protein molecule is 10123."

10123 is not a probability.

BTW, there is no reason at all to think that abiogenesis would work that way. The rules of chemistry are no random.

[Right Wing Professor]

Each protein molecule requires a minimum of 410 amino acids. All formed in left handed spirals. (Protein molecules do not have right handed spirals for some unknown reason.)

Human myoglobin has 153 amino acids. Human cytochrome c has 104 amino acids. Hen egg lysozyme has 129 amino acids. Where do you dig up this rubbish?

[doc30]

All formed in left handed spirals. (Protein molecules do not have right handed spirals for some unknown reason.)

It's all based on the stereochemistry involved.

Simple chemistry dictates that amino acids can condense and that a chain containing 410 amino acids units will form via condensation quite readily. It's freshamn chemistry.

[VadeRetro]

You can't compute odds without a model of the event. You evidently think complex structures jump together all at once from amino acids. At any rate, that's what you modeled. There's very little evidence for this ever happening.

The closest analogy I can find to your model is the Genesis creation story. A man is formed from dust in one afternoon. Yes, it's pretty ridiculous. I doubt even God would do it that way.

[Rifleman]

The odds against being dealt any particular hand of bridge are astronomical. Mars could occupy billions of orbits different from the one it does. The arrangement of the sand grains in this pile is absolutely unique. Every snowflake is unique....therefore each of these examples is a proof of intelligent action.


Sorry...that does not follow.

Most of the ID enthusiasts are just trying to wedge creationism into the domain of science. Those that are not should produce some testable predictions.

[shuckmaster]

The odds against this happening in at least 239 protein molecules to form the smallest living organism are 1029345.

That's way less that the odds of shuffled deck of cards coming up in their exact order and you can shuffle a deck of cards all day long.

[antiRepublicrat]

The odds of that one organism surviving long enough to learn to eat, breathe and reproduce are beyond calculation.

Such calculation of odds assumes that life as we know it today is the desired end point. I'd have extremely bad odds on predicting right now what movie will win the 2020 Academy Award for best picture (especially since it hasn't been made yet), but it's pretty good odds that one will. After the 2010 ceremony, do we say "This movie couldn't have won because the odds against it winning were beyond calculation."

[MHalblaub]

"Each protein molecule requires a minimum of 410 amino acids. All formed in left handed spirals. (Protein molecules do not have right handed spirals for some unknown reason.)"

I read somewhere that left handed molecules are more stable against ultraviolet light than right handed ones. Can anybody provide a source for that statement. I can't remember my source.