"but I must say the crude oil charts look bullish enough at the moment."
Pay no attention to the "crude oil charts". We are currently buying Saudi Light Crude Oil and Nigerian Bonny Light Crude Oil at a discount of $10.00 to $14.00 per barrel below Brent pricing. $45.00 to $47.00 bbl delivered is the going rate. Anticipate a slight increase over the holidays (Nigerians celebrate from Dec 12 to Jan 2, 2006 and shut down terminals)then a slow decline in pricing again. Look for unleaded at the pump to be $1.50/gal by March 2006.
politicalwit: Who is "we"?
Unless this crude was purchased for future delivery, it strikes me as wildly improbable that the discount would exceed the cost of transportation by any significant margin... and you have quoted a delivered price.
Why are the Nigerians and / or the Saudis so committed to doing "you" a favor when they could presumably sell into either the cash or the futures markets?
Last but not least, why would any producer shut down their loading facilities for three weeks?
Unless you have some support for you statements I can only conclude that your post is specious.
Question for Dog Gone: Any chance politicalwit's assertions are valid?
Very interesting. That helps explain recent gas prices.