Posted on 12/09/2005 5:15:45 PM PST by Shermy
Abkhazia official fears Georgia is preparing new war
MOSCOW. Dec 9 (Interfax) - Sukhumi believes a renewal of Georgian- Abkhaz fighting is a possibility and is sure that Tbilisi is preparing for it. "The Georgian authorities lack time. They failed to settle the conflict politically, because we defined our course long ago, and that is independence and Abkhazia can accept neither extended autonomy nor special status. Tbilisi has begun a buildup," Abkhaz Defense Minister, Lt. Gen. Sultan Sosnaliyev said in an interview published by in the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper on Friday. The Georgian army has qualitatively changed recently, he said. "The Georgian military budget is the largest in the Transcaucasus. It has reached the level of $300 million and is equal to the entire annual Georgian budget in the times of Eduard Shevardnadze. U.S. experts train Georgian soldiers and officers study abroad. Modern arms and equipment are delivered to the country. Military training is carried out constantly. They are creating this army for a reason," Sosnaliyev said. In his opinion, Georgian-Abkhaz war will break out when the Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline begins full operation. For details, see the Interfax - Military News Agency newswire.
Baku: Armenian recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh may mean war
MOSCOW. Dec 7 (Interfax) -Yerevan's recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's independence may lead to war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry press service told Interfax on Wednesday.
Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev told as much to U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense James MacDougal on December 5 in Baku.
"The Armenian authorities say that they may recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Should this happen, military actions would be renewed," the press service cited Abiyev.
At a meeting with representatives of the Pentagon, Abiyev said that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a real threat to regional energy projects, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the press service said.
Earlier, Armenian President Robert Kocharian did not exclude the possibility that Yerevan may recognize the self-proclaimed republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Baku lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts as a result of a bloody Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict in the 1990s.
Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan pipeline almost full now.
Now talk of war from Russian puppets Abkhazia and Iranian puppet Armenia.
Another supply-side oil war coming up? Russians have blamed the Saudis for starting the Second Chechen War when Dagestani pipelines were turned on.
I might have to revive my "Caucasus Oil War" ping list.
Iranian puppet armenia?
Jus' arguin'.
:)
But really, they are allies be fact of having common for Azerbaijan.
The far shorter route for the pipeline was through Armenia, BTW.
I was very surprised when it didn't happen.
U.S. experts train Georgian soldiers and officers study abroad. Modern arms and equipment are delivered to the country. Military training is carried out constantly. They are creating this army for a reason,"
The stated reason was to shut off terrorist traffic through the Pankisi Gorge; another obvious guess would be to build a force capable of protecting the pipeline.
In his opinion, Georgian-Abkhaz war will break out when the Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline begins full operation.
Why wait until then? The Abkhaz officer's paranoia makes some sense, the Georgians may have their own issues besides ours. But Georgians aren't likely to launch a war purposely to cut their own pipeline that is paying royalties to the national treasury. The Abkhaz might, depending on who is pulling their chain. Who, besides Russia? The Saudis, maybe? Under Sheverdnaze, I thought Georgia was a Saudi ally, since they never manage to close the Pankisi, I assume they still are. I would lean toward Russia.
Yerevan's recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's independence may lead to war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry press service told Interfax on Wednesday.
The Azeris have chafed at having to give up Nagorno Karabakh right from the beginning. They stopped the war in order to convince the oil companies to get busy. They would go back to war in an instant if they thought they could win.
But why would they launch a war that would endanger the pipeline that carries Azeri oil? The Armenians, acting on behalf of Russia or Iran might have reason to act against the pipeline, but they aren't going to invade Azerbaijan, Baku would have to renew war against them. It would be much easier to skip all that and send Chechens to blow up the line, or send some of the Al Qaeda nutballs currently hiding out in Iran... Those are tools at Iran's disposal.
Russia's tools might be a renewal of war all along the line, Georgia and Abkhazia, Armenia and Baku. General warfare might open the door for Russia to pull the entire region back into their orbit, which would be a bigger prize than the pipeline. That's a long game.
A very long game would have Iran and Russia cooperating to push the US out, which would put them back into the driver's seat in their former back yard. I don't know if that's what is happening. But that is what I would watch for.
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