Despite the Iranian President's evil insane rhetoric to the contrary, it is hard for me to imagine that they would be so insane as to actually launch a nuclear attack against Israel. To do so would mean near instant national extinction. Unless we believe that it's religious extremism would take them so far, it seems an irrational act to me.
Giving the weapons to a terrorist is more possible, I suppose. But if a bomb goes off in Israel, it won't take much deduction to narrow it down to two suspects - Al Qaeda or Iran. So Iran wouldn't be safe even then.
I've read that Iran is sending arms and men into Iraq as well as agitating the Shiites. I also hear that Russia is selling the weapon systems to Iran to help make war inevitable so they can gain in economic and political power.
German subs have been sold to Israel and I read or heard, that the subs are hanging out in the Indian Ocean parked outside of Iran.
I don't think it will be a nuclear exchange. I think it will be an inevitable regional conflict. And that groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood will continue to gain power.
It's hard to imagine that 14 guys would fly jets into tall buildings knowing that to do so would mean near instant extinction.
Betting on a Muslim's rationality is a fool's game.
I would say the converse is true, and that any Muslim should be presumed willing to destroy every vestige of Western civilization until proven otherwise.
-ccm
There are two ways for Iran to "save face":
1) Demand that Israel give up its nuclear weapons and engage the U.N. in a drawn out campaign to pressure Israel into doing so while they continue to enrich uranium.
2) Drag all of its choice components into the open and dare Israel to do something about it. This will take away any justification for using tactical nuclear weapons to destroy their program. It will also be an act of war which will allow Iran (and Syria) to retaliate in kind without being labeled as "aggressors". The question on everyone's mind will be, "does Iran still have a nuclear weapon somewhere?" and what will happen to all that oil if a nuclear exchange occurs?
The way I see it, Israel may have room for a conventional strike, with a hair-trigger on the nuclear option if it's not successful and Iran moves to retaliate with a nuclear weapon. I don't believe Iran will pre-emptively strike with a nuclear weapon. Not in a million years. But if Israel pre-emptively tries to destroy their facilities... well, all I can say is, they'd better finish the job.