Poland gets caught in Russian-Ukraine gas battle

Radio Polonia ^ | 20.12.2005 | Slawek Szefs

[lizol]

Poland gets caught in Russian-Ukraine gas battle

For the past several weeks Europe has been looking with anxiety at the Russian conflict with Ukraine over natural gas deliveries. And there is plenty to worry about for Poland, as 80% of Russian deliveries run through Ukrainian pipelines.

Report by Slawek Szefs

Poland's situation is even more difficult than of many other European countries. Its dependency on Russian gas runs at one sixth of the total national demand! How could Poland be affected, if deliveries were limited in the middle of the winter season? Richard Mbewe, chief analyst for the Warsaw Investment Group, says that contrary to "good" Belarus and "bad" Ukraine, Poland shares to a great extent its situation with numerous EU countries and must be treated accordingly.

Political commentator Piotr Mroczyk is of the opinion that Russia has developed a new tactical weapon - gas and crude oil instead of nuclear potential - in its return to imperial dreams and Poland must be aware of that.

Richard Mbewe from the Warsaw Investment Group recalls that the Russians have signaled their intention of increasing gas delivery prices already in November. Should this entail an abrupt hike on the Polish market, the process might start a whole chain of negative economic reactions. This could mean rising inflation, greater public and foreign debt and the inability to pay EU obligations, to name but a few of the consequences.

A quick and effective move by the Polish government in search of alternate gas sources is simply a must.

[lizol]

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[Pessimist]

Gas battle? You mean like Terrance & Phillip?

[x5452]

The Middle East has for years used foreign energy dependance as a tool of international relations, Russia doing so as well is no shock. The problem for Poland is they rely on their product to come through a country that the EU is encouraging to be anti-Russia now (someone else is biting the hand that feeds it) they should encourage their Ukranian neighbors to simmer down.

[Buck W.]

It's those EU-approved canned beans.

[sergey1973]

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[sergey1973]

A quick and effective move by the Polish government in search of alternate gas sources is simply a must.

I think the good will come out of it that Poland and the rest of E. Europe will work more actively on diversifying its energy supplies to avoid heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas. Caspian gas and oil come to mind. Norway could also supply E. Europe oil needs. While Russia has a right to sell its oil and gas at the market price, the heavy entanglement between oil and gas corporations and Russian Government, make the Russian energy suppliers unpredictable partners. Russia will work on diversifying its delivery routes of gas and oil to European markets. Eventually, demonopolization of Energy suppliers and transit routes is badly needed for Russia and Eastern and Western Europe. Then rational market--not political whims--will be the main player.

[x5452]

Problem being Russian engergy is going the other way; back to state control.

[lizol]

Do you recall any time when it was different?

Problem is, that Russian authorities started using that "new tactical weapon".

[GarySpFc]

The problem is only a mad person spits in his neighbor's face, when that person is the source of his food.

[lizol]

Maybe they just want to be a free, independent country.

Try to think about it.

[x5452]

Energy isn't an entitlement. It goes to paying customers. Russia has a right to cut off Ukraine from it's heavily subsidized energy. If energy can't get through Ukraine to Poland that'll cost Russia money.

Further it looks like there are other pipelines which could supply Poland:

[lizol]

Actually - as you can see on the map - the pipeline, that goes through Ukraine does not suply Poland.

What Poland is really affraid of is, that the same thing, that Russians are going to do to Ukraine they may - one day - do to us too.

Which is a real threat, as Poland (for today) is almost completely dependant on Russian gas.

[sheik yerbouty]

Beer and kishkes give me gas..

[GarySpFc]

There is nothing wrong with wanting to be a free independent country. Freedom does come at a cost. That said, do not blame your neighbor for your choice. When a couple is first married there is love, but afterward there is hate, but in both cases there is an emotional CONNECTION. If you want to be truly free, then the best action you can take is to always show indifference, NOT HATE.

[lizol]

One of the good solutions would be joining the Nabucco pipeline project, that is suposed to transport methane from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia (including Iran, Adjerbadjan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan) to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

Unfortunately I can't find any map showing this project.

[lizol]

You're probably right, but it's very difficult do do so, when the other party shows you nothing but disdain and hostility - only because you want to divorce.

[GarySpFc]

I'm glad you see it. Furthermore, in the divorce BOTH parties get so wrapped in their emotions BOTH show disdain and hostility. Additionally, emotions blind us to our own irrationality. I say this, because I have been there, done that, and bought the tee-shirt.

[lizol]

?????????? Last sentence?

[GarySpFc]

I went through a divorce 25 years ago.