Posted on 12/20/2005 11:58:10 PM PST by NZerFromHK
Don't believe pessimistic pundits and politicians--this is no replay of the last election. In fact, it may go down as one of the most significant in Canadian history
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It's only been 18 months since the last federal election, and if you believe the spin coming from the Prime Minister's Office, nothing's changed since last time around, ensuring a similar result. At least, that was the story when the federal Liberals were trying to stave off a winter election call--or at least trying to paint their opponents as forcing voters to take part in a superfluous exercise. It didn't work: thanks to the Nov. 28 non-confidence vote, Canadians will now be going to the polls Jan. 23. We asked the country's savviest political observers what they expect will come out of this race. Their answers? Far from being the same-old, same-old, this election is shaping up to be the most distinct in a generation--and the dramatic fallout could change the Canadian political landscape forever. Here are the Top 25 reasons why.
1. THE TIMING IS NOT THE LIBERALS' PREFERENCE Strategically timing when to go to the polls is usually one of the biggest advantages for a prime minister. "It's one of the tools you have as a prime minister," says Warren Kinsella, a former Liberal strategist and Toronto-based lawyer. "We're really in leadership politics, so the leader has to get himself ready." He notes that Prime Minister Paul Martin has been looking tired of late, and he's heard rumours the PM is drinking up to 15 cups of coffee a day. The polls aren't looking too great, either. Given his druthers, you can be sure that Martin would have preferred putting this election off for some time.
2. ADSCAM HAS STARTED TO STICK It's only taken, oh, about a dozen or so federal Liberal scandals, but it seems they've finally found one that they may not be able to shake. Despite Martin's attempt to spin the sponsorship mess as the fault of that other Liberal government, a Nov. 16 poll by Sun Media and SES Research found 43 per cent of Canadians blame the entire Liberal cast and 54 per cent of Canadians say Martin and his predecessor, Jean Chrétien, share responsibility for the scandal. "It's been a long time since the public has been asked to pass judgment on ethical conduct," says Preston Manning, the founder of Reform and Canadian Alliance parties. "This [election] is going to send a signal to every politician in the country--either you can get away with murder or you can't." David Kilgour, the retiring independent MP from Edmonton, says that if Canadians don't turf the Liberals now, they probably never will. "Can anybody do worse?" the former Liberal MP asks. "Canadians are going to have to answer that question."
3. ETHICS HAVE FINALLY BECOME AN ISSUE Thanks to the Gomery report, which exposed the seamiest type of corruption in the ranks of the federal Liberal party, Canadians are looking for someone to sweep Ottawa clean. The Liberals say they'll handle it, but who believes them? Meanwhile, "the Conservative party has presented the most comprehensive package of ethics reforms in the history of Confederation," notes Duff Conacher, co-coordinator with Democracy Watch, a non-partisan ethics advocacy group in Ottawa. "If I were writing it, there would be 65 changes I would make [to government], but they've got 52, so that's 80 per cent." Conacher ranks the NDP reform package a distant second, with only seven changes, and he says the Liberals have by far the weakest ethics reforms.
4. A BATTLE OF SEASONED LEADERS Almost every election features some newly pressed party leader making rookie mistakes, but not this one. The fact that all four party leaders have fought an election before means a more professional race with fewer goofs. NDP Leader Jack Layton has clearly matured, notes Kinsella: "You haven't seen him lately talking about Paul Martin killing people" as he did last election, blaming Martin for the deaths of homeless people. "And Harper has definitely grown--he looks prime ministerial," says Kinsella. "He also looks presidential and that gets played against him. Whereas with Martin all that's happened in the intervening period is that he looks older."
5. RELATIVE PARTY STABILITY FOR A CHANGE In the '93 and '97 elections, the right was split between Reformers and Progressive Conservatives. In 2000 it was the PCs and the Canadian Alliance. And last year, the united Conservatives went to the polls before they had a chance to formally set policy. This time, "all the major parties, at least on the surface, are fairly well organized," says University of Calgary political science professor Barry Cooper, which portends a tougher race for the incumbent Liberals. But the stability may be temporary, he adds. "If Canadians say enough is enough and the Liberals are toast . . . this could cause a major meltdown. We could be looking at a realignment of the major parties."
6. MORE TELEVISED DEBATES Canadians usually have two televised debates to get acquainted with the party leaders--a big leg-up for the incumbents. This time there could be four. While that means some added risk for leaders who aren't good on their feet, "it does allow a leader more opportunity to recover," says Nelson Wiseman, political science professor at the University of Toronto. "And it's just more exposure." But in this case, he still sees the Liberals as the beneficiary, since they're relying on the appeal of their leader, rather than their tarnished party brand.
7. THE CHRISTMAS EFFECT This will be Canada's first Noel election campaign in 25 years and communication strategies will have to be adjusted accordingly. The days before and following Christmas may be full of mirth and merrymaking, but will be devoid of campaign advertising. "What's the point of doing your big ad buy in that period between [December] 21 and 25?" says Kinsella. "Nobody's watching TV." As a result, watch for the television blitz to take off after the New Year, when the campaign will be in its final days. Planning around the Christmas season has also meant that Martin has extended the campaign to 56 days, one of the longest in Canadian history. That will give the underdog parties--the Tories and NDP--longer to turn the polls around and get on top. Though, it also gives them more opportunity to screw up. Either way, it will be a more tiring and intense campaign than most politicians have seen.
8. THE LIBERALS NO LONGER STAND FOR NATIONAL UNITY Thanks to their sponsorship scandal, the Liberals have made Quebecers more jaded about federalism than they've been in a decade, with polls showing the Bloc set to conquer the province. "Perhaps people in Ontario and Atlantic Canada don't understand this, but I think we're headed for a full-blown unity crisis if the Liberals are elected because you're going to have an explosion in Quebec," says Manning. "The separatists will capitalize on that, saying these guys have humiliated us and yet the rest of Canada sends them back as the government. And there will be a semi-separatist explosion out here [in the West]. It'll be a greater crisis than in '93 because the Liberal capacity to deal with this would be virtually zero [if they have a] minority parliament and because they're part of the problem."
9. QUEBEC SEPARATISM IS ON A COMEBACK The Clarity Act cooled Quebec separatism for the last couple of elections, but it's back with a vengeance. "This will be the first time in history that Quebecers will vote over 50 per cent in favour of a separatist party," says Eric Duhaime, an adviser to the leader of the Action démocratique du Québec provincial party. Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau's repatriation of the Constitution in 1982 turned Quebecers off the Liberal party for a generation. With the sponsorship scandal, Duhaime says, "they've burned another generation of Quebecers." Meanwhile, the Liberals' attempts to use the threat of separatism to scare voters into voting for their party will flop, Duhaime predicts. "It's like the story 'Never cry wolf.' They've been saying it for so long, it's like the hidden agenda used against the Conservatives. It works once, twice, three times, but there's a limit. Voters are not idiots and you can't push the envelope too far."
10. THE CONSERVATIVES HAVE SHED THEIR POPULISM One of the strengths of the Reform party and the Canadian Alliance were their populist bona fides, says Manning. "The seats that [the Reform party] took away from the NDP both in Saskatchewan and B.C., we did that very much on the strength of democratic reform, giving the little guy the tools to represent himself, citizens' initiative, referendum, recall, free votes, that whole bundle." That enabled the right-wing party to appeal to soft social democrats. "The democratic deficit is supposed to be an issue, but it appears to be just a slogan" for the major parties, says Manning. "Whoever can recapture that theme will do well in those seats where it is important."
11. THE LIBERALS ARE LOSING TORONTO Canada's biggest city has a long relationship with the Liberals, but lately, it's been lusting for local boy Jack Layton. His high-profile power brokering in the minority government has made him a Hogtown celebrity. Currently, the Liberals control all but four of the Greater Toronto Area's 44 ridings, but if Layton can pick enough strong candidates (he's got former Ontario cabinet minister Marilyn Churley already, and his wife, the highly visible Toronto city councillor Olivia Chow, is trying again after last year's failed shot) he could break the monopoly--at least for one election. Cooper acknowledges that most Torontonians would never consider voting for Harper, so "if they reject the Liberals, then they only have one place to go. It would be a protest vote for a betrayal of everything they hold near and dear by the Liberals, and it probably wouldn't last very long."
12. THE NDP SHORES UP THE LEFT For years, a lot of lefties have held their nose and voted Liberal as a way to fend off the spectre of a victory from the right. But with the Liberals looking more corrupt than ever, and Jack Layton's NDP enjoying renewed relevancy, that may be about to end. "I think that vote will return to where it has more naturally been expressed and we'll see more MPs from the New Democratic Party," says Lorne Calvert, the NDP premier of Saskatchewan. Speaking for his province in particular, Calvert says: "The Saskatchewan voter is always pragmatic, and if we end up with a similar kind of parliament, we'll have a stronger voice working on a minority government."
13. THE GREEN FACTOR Thanks to recent changes in the election funding rules, which give $1.75 to party campaigns for every vote they received in the last election, the fledgling Green party is about to become a bigger force in Canadian politics. Last time around, the Greens managed to gather four per cent of the popular vote, earning them more than $1 million for this campaign, on top of supporter contributions. "They certainly won't win any seats," says Wiseman. "But they could potentially be spoilers."
14. THE MEDICARE BOGEYMAN'S NOT SO SCARY The Supreme Court's decision this summer that Canadians have a right to seek private health insurance, combined with Martin's refusal to agree to the NDP's public medicine guarantees have backed the Liberals into a corner. "The Supreme Court has actually put the Liberal party on the defensive by saying it's unconstitutional to make people wait for health care, that it's a denial of human rights to suffer on waiting lists," says Guy Giorno, former chief of staff to ex-Ontario premier Mike Harris, and a Toronto lawyer. Last election, Martin presented himself as the country's staunchest defender of public medicine. The fact that waiting lists have doubled since the Liberals took office, and that most Canadians have since learned that Martin's personal physician is one of the biggest private clinic operators in the country will make it hard for Martin to make any self-righteous claims this time, without sounding like a hypocrite.
15. THE HIDDEN AGENDA REVERSES COURSE The Liberals have been effective at convincing Canadians that their opponents have had a secret platform. In part, that's because the parties hadn't developed a platform--as was the case with the greenhorn Tories last year--or were quick to back away from anything controversial. "Hidden agenda isn't something you push on somebody; it's something they put on themselves," says Kinsella. He recalls former Alliance leader Stockwell Day loudly touting his proposal for a flat income tax, but when the election platform was cast, it had been taken out. "I said, now we can say 'hidden agenda,'" he says. Harper, says Kinsella, is a sharper politician than that, while Martin has left himself open to the charge of having a hidden agenda by careening wildly on issues of foreign aid, the democratic deficit and deficit control. A Strategic Counsel poll, released Nov. 29, shows that a third of voters believe the Liberals have a hidden agenda. Only a quarter say that of the Tories.
16. NO MORE WAFFLING ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE The groundbreaking legalization of gay marriage may be over, but there are still plenty of aftershocks to come. All of those Liberal MPs who left constituents with the impression that they would fight same-sex marriage, but went on to vote in favour of it, will be facing some unfriendly faces when they go door knocking in the coming weeks. The lines have been clearly drawn, says Jason Kenney, the Calgary MP and Opposition deputy House leader. "Something like two thirds of Canadians support the traditional definition of marriage, and we've committed to a free vote on this should there be a Conservative government," he says. Whether voters are looking to reopen the issue, or just punish the MPs who betrayed them, same-sex marriage is something that they'll be taking to the ballot box.
17. THE RISE OF ATLANTIC PRIDE When Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams squeezed a new energy accord out of the federal government early in the year, he reawakened feelings among Newfoundlanders that they've generally been getting a raw deal from Confederation. The renewed sense of self-reliance spreading through the Atlantic provinces will make it harder for the Liberals to buy the region off with promises of handouts, says Brian Lee Crowley, president of the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies. "In the major urban centres there is a tremendous optimism, a belief in our ability to make our way in the world and break out of the old habits and culture that was associated with Atlantic Canada," Crowley says.
18. THE PROVINCES ARE GETTING GRUMPY Now that Newfoundland has rewritten the equalization formula in its favour, both Ontario and Saskatchewan have begun complaining that Ottawa has been screwing them too. Saskatchewan Premier Lorne Calvert says his citizens are ticked they can't get the same deal Newfoundland did for their energy revenues. "We've been at this for longer than two years," says Calvert. "We find out with a recent communication with the finance department that nothing has been done and the panel on equalization has been put off. So this will be, for Saskatchewan, a pretty significant election issue." And the guy with the tight wallet just happens to be Saskatchewan's own Ralph Goodale, the federal finance minister. If Saskatchewanians are angry enough, he could end up paying for it personally.
19. CLASS WARFARE LOOMS IN ALBERTA Alberta's debt free and looking at a surplus big enough to dwarf Ottawa's, while the rest of the country is struggling with high energy costs and central Canada's manufacturing sector is dealing with layoffs and intensifying competition from China. All the ingredients are there for the Liberals to fall back on a wealth redistribution strategy reminiscent of the National Energy Program. "With gasoline prices and home heating prices being at an all-time high in Ontario and Quebec, particularly in January, the coldest month of the year, I would be surprised if there isn't some kind of cash transfer proposal from oil and gas-producing provinces to consuming provinces," says Ted Morton, an Alberta MLA and contender for the leadership of the province's Progressive Conservatives. One of the Liberal's campaign executives is none other than Marc Lalonde, the principal architect of the NEP. Things could get ugly.
20. THE END OF THE LINE FOR ALBERTA LIBERALS Paul Martin managed to hang on to two seats in Alberta in 2004, but the Wild Rose Province has only become more hostile in the 18 months since the last election. Edmonton-Beaumont's David Kilgour quit the Liberals in disgust earlier this year over Martin's refusal to take action on the genocide in Sudan, became an independent, and is now retiring. That leaves Liberal orphan Ann McLellan, who eked out a victory in 2004 by just 721 votes--and that was before the Liberals took a licking following the report from the Gomery Commission. "McClellan has hung on by the skin of her teeth in the last two elections, but I don't know if she can do it again," says Morton.
21. SPENDING PROMISES ARE FALLING FLAT In the days leading up to the fall of their minority government, the federal Liberals shovelled out more than 40 spending announcements, topping $24 billion in promised pork. But the silence from Canadian voters has been deafening. According to an Ipsos Reid poll, released Nov. 26, the ploy may be backfiring. "It underscores the fact that people believe the Liberals are willing to spend money to buy votes," Darrell Bricker, president of the pollster, told reporters. Since payoffs-for-patronage was at the core of the sponsorship scandal, Bricker said, the spending splurge only "highlights the character elements of the Liberals that people don't like."
22. TAX CUTS? SO WHAT? If the country's welfare statists were left unmoved by the catalogue Liberal spending announcements, fiscal conservatives were equally blasé about the slapdash tax-cut package. "Paul Martin has been saying for the last two years that it wasn't his priority to cut taxes, and moreover he said it wasn't the priority of Canadians," says John Williamson, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, suggesting that the prime minister's deathbed conversion is too obvious by half. "Now suddenly we have $30 billion in tax cuts, mostly from surpluses, which is just over-taxation. So the idea of thanking the government for returning the money to where it belongs is a bit much," Williamson says. Besides, if voters are truly steamed at Liberal mismanagement and corruption, how likely is it that a two per cent tax cut--half of it deferred till 2010--is going to change your mind?
23. THE ECONOMY IS BACK ON THE RADAR Not since the 1988 election, fought largely over free trade, has Canada's economic sovereignty been a campaign issue. But America's refusal to play by NAFTA rules on the softwood lumber issue has put it front and centre again. Martin has threatened to retaliate by diverting Canadian energy exports away from the U.S., but truth be told, Canada's trade strategy is quickly falling apart on several fronts. "It's become more and more evident over the years that our productivity is in the tank," says Manning, noting that last year, Canada was ousted by China as the No. 1 exporter to the U.S. "I think we're at a watershed moment in the performance of the economy," Manning says, "where even people who don't think about this much realize we're going to have to do something different."
24. THE FIRST INTERNET ELECTION The World Wide Web has been influencing U.S. elections since 2000, but made a huge impact in 2004, as bloggers outflanked the mainstream media on pivotal stories, such as John Kerry's Swift Boat stories and the fake 60 Minutes memos. Kinsella notes that U.S. politicians, such as John McCain, Jesse Ventura and Trent Lott, have all seen their political careers devastated by the blogosphere. "They were Goliaths and were felled by Internet Davids," he says. "In Canada, we haven't seen this yet. Maybe this is the one," says Kinsella. If mainstream media outlets lose their monopoly on the news spin, it could have a big impact on the way Canadians perceive the campaign--and future ones. "Canadian media--with the exception of you guys [the Western Standard], because you have a blog on your site--are much more arrogant than their American counterparts," says Kinsella. "They can't conceive that they are losing their power, but the fact is, they are."
25. ROCK-BOTTOM VOTER TURNOUT In any election, you're virtually guaranteed to see fewer people going to the polls: voter turnout has been sliding steadily, with just 60.5 per cent of eligible Canadians turning up for last summer's election--compared to turnout rates nearing 80 per cent range in the sixties. This time of year, with snowbirds in the south, millions of Canadians visiting kin and kith for the holidays, and millions more subdued by eggnog or wintry weather, the show-ups will be lower than ever. "This makes it even more non-representative of the Canadian public, which disturbs me," says outgoing independent Mississauga, Ont., MP Carolyn Parrish. "If you get a 50 or 40 per cent turnout, you get one person casting votes for every two Canadians." Those voters that do trudge to the polls through snow and ice will surely be among the most motivated. Care to guess what it might be that'll have them so worked up?
A winning issue--for those who dare
Seventeen years ago, on Nov. 21, 1988, Canadian voters re-elected a majority Conservative government. Every single election and almost every opinion poll since has gone the Liberal way. But if today's Tories draw a lesson from the 1988 victory and the subsequent 17 years of darkness, they may discover the secret to their future success. And it may be in the last place they are willing to look.
When former prime minister Brian Mulroney fought the 1988 election, he did so largely on a single, principled issue: the Free Trade Agreement. His party was in favour of it. The Liberals and NDP, were against it. And it was primarily the support of Quebec and Alberta voters that propelled Mulroney to a second term--the only provinces where a majority supported the free-trade party (52.7 per cent in Quebec and 51.8 per cent in Alberta).
It may be no coincidence that 1988 was not only the last election the Liberals lost and also the last time there has been a truly policy-driven campaign in this country. Tories seem unable to beat the Liberals when it comes to campaigning on pure demagoguery and vote buying. So will Conservative Leader Stephen Harper take a page from Mulroney's playbook and offer voters a stimulating, ambitious project they can get behind? If he does, there's a big, glaring initiative out there that's his for the taking. It's the same one that conservatives in this country have been running from for 17 years. Perhaps it's time Harper switched directions and became Canada's official champion of a two-tier health care system.
Health care is undeniably the most pressing issue in a country with a rapidly ageing population, where it already represents the fastest growing government expense--while waiting lists grow. Nor are most Canadians blinded by pro-medicare propaganda: a recent Léger Marketing poll conducted for the Montreal Economic Institute showed that 52 per cent of Canadians want to permit more rapid access to health care for those willing to pay for it, reaching an even higher percentage among Conservative voters (67 per cent) and Bloc Québécois voters (64 per cent). Meanwhile, Quebec's Liberal government plans to comply with the Supreme Court's Chaoulli decision from the summer, which found bans on private insurance to be unconstitutional. It will present legislation within the next few weeks that proposes an openly parallel private health care system in that province. Coming out strongly in favour of a private-public health care mix might not only be a good opportunity for Harper to gain support in la belle province and rebuild Mulroney's bridge between the West and Quebec that was burned after 1988--a coalition of people fighting not just for power but for freedom of choice.
How would the Liberals react? Martin would be forced to spend valuable campaign time trying to explain why private health care is bad for average Canadians, but it's OK for him to use the services of the physician at the head of the biggest private medical operation in Quebec. The Bloc would be forced to explain to nationalists why it supports Ottawa's intrusion, with the Canada Health Act, into a matter of provincial jurisdiction.
Mulroney decided to campaign on the issue of free trade in 1988 at the last minute, and he did it reluctantly. If Harper can overcome his reluctance to challenge the Liberal medicare orthodoxy, he might have the same success Mulroney brought the Conservative party, nearly two decades ago.
Ping!
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
Despite Canadians receiving travel warnings about dangerous conditions in Sydney, apparently Canadians are coming downunder in droves. I just hope that if there are any Conservatives amongst them, they get back to Canada in time to vote. If they are Martin supporters, best they spend voting day on the Birdsville Track.
I know! I know! I know!....it's a polar bear in a blizzard :)
If mainstream media outlets lose their monopoly on the news spin, it could have a big impact on the way Canadians perceive the campaign--and future ones. "Canadian media--with the exception of you guys [the Western Standard], because you have a blog on your site--are much more arrogant than their American counterparts," says Kinsella. "They can't conceive that they are losing their power, but the fact is, they are."
Very nice.
Good article NZerFromHK ... thanks for posting it!
There's a different feeling in the air this time around.
For these types of mobile light infantry units, a better choice than the Humvee even though the Humvee has heavier armour.
For these types of mobile light infantry units, a better choice than the Humvee even though the Humvee has heavier armour.
As one who follows Canadian politics to some extent, I grasp most of the points listed esxcept #15. Could someone eplease explain/expound? I don't get the "Hidden Agenda" thingee, let alone the reversal....Thanks..
Will it change the Plank constant? Will the value change from 6625·10-34 J·s?
I THINK NOT!
For some weird reason the liberal PM Marin wrapped himself in the flag and said he would battle the separatists in Quebec on every street corner. Then, when challenged to a one on one debate by the separatist leader, Duceppte, Mr. Martin declined. That left an opening for Harper, the Conservative, to step in and say the he would debate Duceppte one on one.
Also the Liberals are slowing the campaign down during the Holidays and allowing those campaign workers who took a leave of absence from their government jobs to work and be paid by the liberal party during the campaign, to go back to their original jobs in the civil service. This has allowed the conservatives an opening to say that the Liberals are allowing the taxpayers to pay for liberal workers during the election campaign.
This is getting real interesting. If the NDP and liberals split the vote, the Conservatives could come up the middle. Also Harper's comments on Quebec and the endorsement of Quebec's leader for the conservative leader, Harper will start to move him in that part of the country to at least get a few seats.
I also note that where I live in Eastern Ontario and in Western Ontario, its turning a lot conservative compared to years past.
My big concern is in British Columbia. For some weird reason, likely good organization, the liberals and NDP are playing well and it likely means the conservatives will lose seats compared as years gone by. I really never understood B.C. at times.
There is no way the New Democrats would form a coalition with the Liberals - that would make them look like absolute idiots.
Afterall, it was the New Democrats who withdrew their support in Parliament for the Liberals, which initially triggered this election. Why would they then do a 1-80 and support the Libs? That would make them look like buffoons, not to mention they would be blamed for the millions spent on a pointless election.
I hope this is all going to come to pass.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
You are absolutely correct. The NDP will support a minority Harper government.
In my not-so-humble opinion.
FWIW, I live in a Tory riding that will most likely go NDP this election, as will several others in B.C. and Saskatchewan.
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