"Our game plan shows that any attempt at imposing an embargo on Iran would push the price of oil to $110 per barrel," Abbasi said. "And if we were to be subjected to military attack the price could top the $400 mark."
Three points. I can afford to pay $5 a gallon for a while. I won't like it, but I can do it. Iran can't survive without selling oil, not even for a week.
Second point is that Iran won't be making the $110 per barrel, her neighbors will, the ones who have allowed us to park our ships in their ports, the ones who have allowed us to stage our jets and men on their soil. Our allies will be making the $110 per barrel while Iran's national income drops to zero.
The third point is that Iran will suddenly find itself awash in independence movements; arab independence in the southwest, kurdish independence in the northwest, baluchi independence in the southeast, azeri independence in the north. If Iran's not careful she could lose both coasts, the Persian Gulf may become the Baluchi Gulf, while her Caspian seacoast becomes the pride of a second Azeri Republic. How much oil will Iran have then?
posted on 12/22/2005 9:43:02 AM PST
You have to dig deeper into their leader's motivation. He WANTS to promote an apocalyptic clash with the West, and does not care one whit if millions of Iranians die.
His aim is to leverage a collapse of the world economy, and throw the world back to the tenth century. Out of these ashes, he believes, Islam will rise and rule the world.
He's totally insane, thinks he has a halo (literally) and is about to announce he's the long awaited Islamic messiah, the "12th Mahdi."
Please don't ascribe Western notions of logic or rationality to his thought processes.
The fact that we can flatten his nation won't matter, he will be cheering, because he hopes and believes the ensuing economic chaos due to the oil disruptions will lead to his goals being accomplished.
posted on 12/22/2005 10:10:11 AM PST
by Travis McGee
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