Defcon one... and rising

04-January-2006 | Ron Pickrell

[manglor]

Mutual Assured Destruction doesn't work when 1 side is a bunch of suicidal fanatical religious zealots.

The Soviets were still human enough to have the desire to stay alive.

[Semper Paratus]

Chilling. I wish I could say he's overstating the situation. But I'm not so sure now.

[frogjerk]

Fortunately no people were hurt- only soldiers

Where does this quote come from?

[Mr. Mojo]

Israel .....lack of survivability of its retaliatory systems.

Not true. Israel has nukes on cruise missiles on (Dolphin class) submarines, nukes on ballistic missiles in hardened silos, and nukes on bombers. No way could a country like Iran eliminate the threats from this "nuclear triangle." In fact, it's extremely doubtful they'd be able to take out even one leg.

[frogjerk]

Israel has nukes on cruise missiles on (Dolphin class) submarines

I don't know if this one item is true because I was reading up on this and found this on Israel Defense Forces

It has also been speculated that the Israeli Navy's three 1,925 ton Type 800 Dolphin class submarines may be capable of carrying nuclear-armed specially-modified Popeye Turbo cruise missiles. These missiles are purported to have a 1,500 km range and are supposedly fired out of what are suspected to be unusually-sized additional torpedo tubes that were allegedly installed on the Dolphin submarine and are otherwise larger than what is required to accommodate any currently known western torpedo design in existence. A test of such a missile is alleged to have taken place off the coast of Sri Lanka in May 2000. Nevertheless, some military analysts have labeled such rumors to be highly unlikely and impossible given the logistics of the submarines. Furthermore, there is no factual basis for the origins of the alleged test firing.

[Little Pig]

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[JamesP81]

The Soviets were still human enough to have the desire to stay alive.

I was trying to make this same point during the Tancredo 'nuke mecca' political firestorm.

Deterrence worked with the Soviet because, despite everything, they all wanted to live too. They also wanted a better tomorrow for their children and, at the end of the day, it turns out most of them were regular people, just like you and me trying to do their best day to day.

The Mad Mullahs in Iran are not like this. They don't care if the apocalypse comes tomorrow, so long as it comes for everyone.

And this is why we should be bombing their nuke facilities NOW. Right now, they can't retaliate with nukes. They can't send any more guerillas and terorrists into Iraq because I imagine they're probably already running flat out on that strategy. They can't launch a conventional attack because that's just suicidal. Right now, we hold all the cards. We should start playing some of them. Cruise missile and bomb anything that looks like nuke research or has a communications antenna on it. Do this 24/7 until they've had enough or, at least, their nuke program is a shambles.

[Publius6961]

Guess how much hesitation the Iranians have bought for themselves, in their collossal stupidity? Those persians who wish for a life for their grandchildren may have only days to throw down the theocracy in their country and avoid immolation. The real ballot will be the actions of those who don't relish the coming return of the 12th Imam, and the end of their world. They have the first veto. The Israelis have the second. And we have the third.

What a great and brief summary!

I reject the suggestion that Iranians are "helpless" against their clerics. Sow the wind reap the whirlwind...

[arthurus]

Fortunately no people were hurt- only soldiers Where does this quote come from?

I don't ythink it is a quote. It is a paraphrase of many MSM and liberal pronouncements after such incidents.

[okie01]

Nevertheless, some military analysts have labeled such rumors to be highly unlikely and impossible given the logistics of the submarines.

This is one of those cases when you ask yourself, "Why else would Israel have a fleet of submarines, if not for a second-strike capability?"

Israel has no need of submarines to interdict enemy shipping. Nor for a remote early-warning mission. Nor are they going to find themselves at war with a country relying on a surface fleet.

There is one reason, and one reason only, for Israel to maintain a submarine fleet: nuclear response.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

The lesson of the holocaust: if someone says they are going to kill you, pay attention.

[Little Pig]

Given that the Koran is pretty much a plagiarized OT, I wonder what Sura corresponds to Hosea 8:7?

[conservativecorner]

GREAT POST BUMP!

[PigRigger]

George Bush's gamble that "rather than kill all of them, we might be able to turn them towards democracy and co-existence", like we mastered in the cold war until the Soviets finally collapsed, might even have worked. It was the wisest, most compassionate, and least destructive gamble we have taken since the Marshall Plan rebuilt post-WW2 europe.

That, IMHO, is what Iraq is all about. It is our best hope in avoiding all out war in the Middle East.

Those that wish us to go into Iraq now, without understanding the consequences, should stop to think about the costs both economic and in human lives. The costs will be high. The question remains; will they be higher if we wait?

I have not given up hope that by freeing Iraq, we may have unleashed a chain of events that will free Iran. Unfortunately, such optimism is waning....time is running out.

[humint]

most likely will extinguish all remaining options.

I don’t see a connection between your posts opening paragraph and the reality of the situation. Antagonists don’t exist without latent conflict. The Iranian regime is an anathema to the modern world and the showdown between the modern and the medieval looms. Do the fathers in this scenario not see what the purge of sane Iranians from Iran has done? They’ve had more than a quarter century to open their eyes. The sane children of Iran have been warning these so called fathers of the days to come for years, yet the fathers have made no significant preparations besides building bigger fences. What difference does a fence make when your enemies are inside your walls? But like any parent, ignorant of the threats that face their children, they will either learn or suffer the most devastating of human experiences, the loss of a child.

There is but one constant and that constant is change. Even the will of the mightiest father is disarmed in the face of it.

[quant5]

"The lesson of the holocaust: if someone says they are going to kill you, pay attention."

Yes indeed. While diplomats were arriving in Washington from Japan in the 30's and we began heavy trade, the Japanese generals were saying that they were going to annihalate us. Well they sure did try, didn't they? China is repeating the above mentioned history. Iran is stating their intentions to the world. When we invaded Iraq, North Korea really ramped up their "we will turn LA into cinders" rehtoric. We deployed a dozen nuclear armed B2 bombers.

It is too late for Iran to take back this message of nuclear annihalation for Israel. They have made their intentions quite clear. Israel is our closest global ally, second to Britain. I feel we must act also, but am discouraged that we have not sent Iran the same kind of message we sent the Kim Jong-ill.

[ericthecurdog]

Bump and ping. Great read.

[MajorityOfOne]

Glad the author feels better. But all this assumes that Israel can wipe out all Iranian assets first, that Iran has nothing to shoot back with, and they don't have any nukes yet -- a lot of assumptions when just one lucky shot with a surviving Iranian warhead can turn all of Israel into a desert. People who yak on about the Samson Option forget that Samson still ended up dead.

[rip033]

You are right. You can never be 100% accurate about anyones intentions so you have to interpret the actions and what they mean and what will be the consequences. All we have is history to go by. The Soviets in the beginning of the Cold War did not act rational. I feel after WWII till close to the late 50s the Soviets felt that the West didn't have the stomach nor will for conflict. Kennedy seemed to call the Soviets bluff during the Cuban Missile Crisis or kick them back to reality. Suddenly after that nuclear test ban and other nuke treaties were started. The Western world has not pushed back at all Iran since their revolution in the late 70's. I don't see Iran backing down. This last offer by the Russians looked to be a group idea. It seems that the West was getting anxious about what Iran was doing and saying and came up with the idea of calling Iran's hand. Basically if Iran is so into getting nuke technology for electric power then the Russians can do part of the process and you can still benefit. Now one can say that Iran just want it's own "nuclear independence" like the many other nations. The only problem is Iran has lost the privilege due to it's actions in the past. I always ask anyone who brings this subject up "Are you willing to let Iran have a nuclear weapon?" Plain and simple. I never hear anyone say a clear and definite "Yes."