Posted on 01/10/2006 8:19:29 PM PST by LdSentinal
I think whether or not they are conservative is important but I was really thinking more of the implications to the Democrat party. The polarization of the parties is creating a situation where only one party will be viable in the future because it is becoming increasingly the case that to be a conservative to moderate Democrat means you have no place in what has become Howard Dean's party. Republicans need to be more polarized by fiscal responsibility and conservative principles and eventually we are going to have to clean house on the right in order to more forward into the future with a real conservative agenda.
While you are correct to point out the absurdity of the Senator's statement to the effect that voters don't support party-switchers, I think Democrats are probably right that McInvale will have a very, very difficult time winning reelection as a Republican. This is why:
"The Florida Democratic party also pointed out that her district has consistently voted for Democrats in statewide elections, including John Kerry with 58 percent of the vote over President Bush in the 2004 election and Bill McBride and Betty Castor with 57 percent of the vote over Sen. Mel Martinez the same year."
Assuming that the Bill McBride thing should be either deleted or changed so that it says that he ran against Jeb in 2002, the fact that Kerry got 58% and Castor got 57% (in Mel Martinez's hometown, mind you) makes me think that the Democrat nominee will win.
What I don't understand is what McInvale means about the Democrat Party supporting her primary opponent in 2004, and that she won the election by only 51 votes. Was it the primary she won by only 51 votes? If it was the general, then I guess that her primary opponent ran as an independent.
BTW, I checked out House District 36 (McInvale's CD), and it is 49% non-Hispanic, 25% non-Hispanic black, 21% non-black Hispanic and 1% black Hispanic. http://www.leg.state.fl.us/redistricting/House/Statistics/H406H020_census.pdf
And the district gave Gore 59% and Bill Nelson 63% in 2000. http://www.leg.state.fl.us/redistricting/House/Statistics/H406H020_major.pdf
It's nice to have some good news for a change.
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