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To: Jeff Head

I doubt it.

The only real issue is Taiwan and Chen Shui Bian's decision to pursue independence. If they're going to do it, Chen will have to do it before 2008 or during the Olympics. The current fiscal estimate shows that Taiwan will be totally dependent on mainland for economics after 2007-2008. All China had to do then is cut off the economics (and iwthout using force) and it can control Taiwan. Chen knows this -- so if he declares independence, China will act. The only reason China hasn't used force to settle the issue is that they think they can have Taiwan tied up with the mainland economically, then eventually they'll move to unification (similar to Hong Kong which is dependent on the mainland).


37 posted on 01/13/2006 9:26:11 AM PST by pganini
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To: pganini

China doesn't have to attack Taiwan. They can simply increase to round-the-clock naval maneouvres near Taiwan's shipping lanes and insurance carriers will pull coverage for cargo ships supplying Free China.


38 posted on 01/13/2006 9:29:51 AM PST by Semper Paratus
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