The key ingredient in avoiding hardship and conflict, either as a result of a collapse or the result of economic clashes giving way to military ones...is for the Chinese people to be free. It is the Chinese people ultimately who must make this happen as I doubt very seriously that the CCP will realistically do it themselves.
Otherwise...I stick by the time table I gace above. Sometime after 2009-2010 if a demo ir rino occupy the White House. But that's just my opinion.
However, even if China is "free" and democratic, do you really think they'll let Taiwan to be independent? That's the key issue. I don't think so. Would we let Texas to be independent if Texans voted for it? I don't think so either (and the same situation has happened - Civil War, where states independently voted for independence, in overwhelming majorities).
The biggest issue for China is Taiwan. Whether it occurs before 2008 or after, if Taiwan declares independence, regardless of teh form of the Chinese government, it will act. It will, or the government would fall because the Chinese will view their government as again, being weak to foreign powers. So whetherit's the CCP, another totalitarian regime, or a democratic one, it will have to act with force to prevent independence.