The people apparently think differently and would reunite with a free mainland.
I expect if the mainland were to become truly free...that the free people on the island would force their politicians to move towards unification (or elect new ones who would) because they would all benefit tremndously...at least that was the feeling when I was there amongst the managers and executives I consulted with.
If the CCP stays in power and is successful in their moves towards ardent nationalism based on a totalitarian system...then reunification will only occur at the point of a gun IMHO. It is this danger that Chen is buttressing and trying to prepare against IMHO.
We shall have to wait and see...and all pray for the true liberty and freedom of the Chinese people and the attendant avoidance of conflict.
Hi Jeff,
I agree with your points. I grew up in Taiwan until the age of 11, and while I was there, the KMT was still in charge and the education is mainly a Chinese-history based education + reunification as the ultimate goal. Of course, KMT also talks about freedom (even though de-facto freedom is still prohibited in the KMT as they're the sole party in charge), etc. which sows the seed for the later reforms. In other words, even though KMT was the sole party in charge, it still educated the young with philosphies from Sun Yatsen, the founder of the modern China republic (until 1949).
The problem in Taiwan today is that they're teaching their young that Taiwanese is a separate race (i am not kidding here), and that unification with the mainland is pointless. ONce the DPP got control, they threw out everything that KMT shows. So i am not sure DPP is helping the tension there.
The thing is, I think it's pretty clear that US will intervene if Taiwan is attacked, unprovoked, by the mainland. The real question is that if the DPP/Chen Shui Bian declares independence outright, and that draws military action from China (whether China is democratic or not, a declaration of independence from Taiwan would draw them into a conflict), whether US will still support them. Bush seems to indicate that his support for Taiwan isn't infinite, and that any moves toward independence from Taiwan is not what he wanted, but who knows.
I am hopeful that China will change at least into some form of Singapore-style government, which is really an autocracy (or even dictatorship if you will, because though it has a parlimentary system, a single party is still in charge over 98% of the seats). I am not sure that it can reach this, however, as it will definitely require strengtheninng rule of law (good luck) first of all. Personally, if they change into Singapore or local level democracy (villagers get to elect their own mayor, etc. so that they can better control corruption themselves which is happening 90% in the local level), I think it'll help a lot.