Posted on 01/22/2006 12:46:59 AM PST by conservative in nyc
With voting day on Monday, stagnant national poll numbers mask some interesting movement among voters in parts of B.C., Ontario and Quebec, says a new poll.
The latest poll by the Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail again finds a 10-point gap nationally between the Conservatives and Liberals (percentage point change from a Jan. 17-19 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 37 per cent (-1)
* Liberals: 27 per cent (-1)
* NDP: 18 per cent (+1)
* Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (unchanged)
* Greens: 6 per cent (-1)
For the question of a majority or minority government, "this leaves the Conservatives short," Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca on Saturday, adding the Tories would have to be in the 42 per cent range or higher to be able to win enough seats to form a majority.
In Canada excluding Quebec, the Conservatives have a 42-31 lead over the Liberals.
The Conservatives in Quebec have fallen seven points from their post-holiday high of 31 per cent (percentage point change from a Jan. 14-16 poll in brackets):
* Bloc Quebecois: 47 per cent (unchanged)
* Conservatives: 24 per cent (-7)
* Liberals: 11 per cent (+4)
* NDP: 8 per cent (+1)
* Greens: 7 per cent (+4)
The Conservatives lost seven points in Montreal, where they now have 16 per cent support, compared to 18 per cent for the Liberals and 47 per cent for the Bloc.
Outside Montreal, the Bloc's lead over the Tories has widened to 16 points -- 47-31. In the Jan. 14-16 poll, the gap was down to five points -- 43-38.
Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe has been strongly attacking the Tories in recent days. On Saturday, the Bloc ran newspaper ads warning Quebecers against placing their faith in a party controlled in Calgary.
Woolstencroft said it's hard to estimate how many seats the Quebec Tories' current support will generate because they don't have the "ground forces" to get their vote out in tight races.
He did suspect that unless the Bloc's support level jumps substantially, Duceppe won't reach his goal of more than 50 per cent support for his party at the polls.
"Separatist party support tends to be overestimated by two or three points in polls," because the Bloc has a great deal of support among very young francophones, but they tend not to vote, Woolstencroft said.
In Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are again tied (percentage point change from a Jan. 17-19 poll in brackets):
* Liberals: 37 per cent (-3)
* Conservatives: 37 per cent (+4)
* NDP: 21 per cent (-1)
* Greens: 6 per cent (-1)
The Greater Toronto area remains largely immune to Conservative momentum, although Woolstencroft said the party should make gains in the '905' suburbs. While the Liberals have dropped from a high of 50 per cent support earlier this week to 45 per cent in this poll, the Tories remain mired at 30 per cent. However, in the same period, the NDP has moved from 16 per cent to 20 per cent support.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper started his campaign day on Saturday working a Toronto phone bank. Liberal Leader Paul Martin also campaigned in the GTA and southwest Ontario on Saturday before flying to Winnipeg.
In British Columbia, Conservative support has subsided somewhat while the NDP has moved into second place (percentage point change from a Jan. 14-16 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 36 per cent (-8)
* NDP: 31 per cent (+5)
* Liberals: 28 per cent (+2)
* Greens: 5 per cent (+1)
Woolstencroft said NDP Leader Jack Layton has been campaigning in B.C. for the last few days, and that tends to push a party's poll numbers up.
Both Martin and Harper will be campaigning in B.C. on Sunday, while Layton finishes off in Toronto.
The Tories remain overwhelmingly dominant in the Prairies, with about twice the support of the NDP and Liberals combined.
Technical information
Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
Interviews were conducted on January 18th, 19th and 21th. Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three day period.
Here are sample sizes and the margin of error:
* Canada: 2,000; 2.2
* Quebec: 494, 4.4
* Montreal: 238, 6.4
* Rest of Quebec: 256 , 6.1
* Rest of Canada: 1,506; 2.5
* Ontario: 758, 3.6
* GTA (416 and 905): 326, 5.4
* Outside GTA: 432, 4.7
* Prairies: 328, 5.4
* B.C.: 266, 6.0
Q. If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
Q. In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.
|
Recent Poll Results |
||||||
|
CPC |
36.2% |
37% |
37.1% |
38% |
38% |
37% |
|
LIB |
29.4% |
27% |
26.9% |
26% |
29% |
27% |
|
NDP |
17.3% |
18% |
19.5% |
19% |
17% |
18% |
|
BQ |
11.0% |
11% |
11.5% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
|
GRN |
6.1% |
6% |
4.6% |
5% |
- |
- |
|
Other |
- |
- |
0.5% |
- |
- |
- |
|
MOE/Dates |
+/-3.1% |
+/- 2.2% |
+/- 2.0% |
+/- 2.2% |
+/- 2.1% |
+/- 3.1% |
|
Dates |
1/18-20 |
1/18-19, 21 |
1/18-20 |
1/17-19 |
1/12-17 |
1/12-15 |
Ping!
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
The media was all over the conservatives today.
The media is throwing itself into the story. A reporter was screaming she was assaulted by the big bad tories in quebec and the media is speculating how much it will hurt them.
The media is also making a big deal that harper wanted to focus on the campaign and didn't want anymore press conferences.
The media is throwing everything at harper to keep Paul Martin in power.
Polls were off 6-7 points last time and the media is going all out after harper.
The conservatives will be under 120 seats. The election will be decided in 905 in ontario and how many bloc voters vote conservative in ontario.
Looking at the races I have the liberals getting at least 103 seats. If the liberals can tip over 12 more close seats they put Paul Martin back in a minority govt.
Harper needs 115 seats to win. Right now it looks about
119 conservative 34 percent
103 liberal 31 percent
58 bloc
28 ndp
Harper needs to stop the bleeding from yesterday
A majority is totally out of the question.
It takes 155 seats to get a majority.
Looking at every race it would take a miracle for the conservatives to get over 125 seats.
125 seats is there highwater mark. There low water mark is about 105 seats. The conservatives need to stop the bleeding in ontario.
These national polls are meaningless. In canada they always seem to skew right.
Also Martin could lose the popular vote and still get more seats.
If you look at the races there is not too much separating the two parties. The liberals will lose over a dozen seats in quebec and slip some in ontario. The key is how much they slip. As it looks right now it looks like they are surging in ontario. They won't get the 75 seats they got last time. But they will also crush the tories in the seat brakedown in ontario.
Very close election with a slight tory minority govt
Are you up in quebec.
I heard the media up there made a huge deal that some conservative security guy grabbed a female french reporter.
The worst people in politics are the ones that always find a way to do something stupid right before an election. Real smart to make a scene in front of the cameras.
That's hard to do when the media is so downright biased.
The front page of every newspaper is full of negative atricles. Harper needs to stay the course. People can see through the liberal media B.S. It's the exact same crap they did in 2004. Quebec is better than the media is reporting, and some poles show Harper in the 40% range.
With a shift towards the NDP for some die-hard liberal voters, That may just split the vote enough to give Harper a seat as well. So while a poll may say the seat is going NDP or Liberal, it may actually go to the Harper's PC's.
Last election Harper would have won many more seats if the NDP would have siphoned off a few more liberal votes.
A hard rain is coming!
Just saw the headline on CBC that the Bloc is running last minute ads saying don't let calgary control.
It seems like they want martin back in power to further their separatist goals.
How will this play up there. Are the voters that loyal to the Bloc party?
Harper needs to make some inroads in quebec to offset the Martin machine in ontario.
Hard Rain?
"Are you up in quebec?"
No I'm from the part of Canada closest to Japan.
I'd advise everyone watching this election to ignore the polls. From here on in it's a crapshoot.
I am a dual citizen, but I live in ND. I don't think that it will go over very well in Quebec If the Bloc is saying vote Liberal!! That will drive the federalists nuts and show them that the Bloc and Liberals really are in bed, Plus it will anger the West coast even more to have it confirmed that they are being screwed over by a liberal/bloc scam. That just may swing a few more seats over to the PC in the west, and maybe in the eastern most provences as well.
That's dirty business.
Can someone post a link to free domain,freerepulic's sister site?
Thanks
I've heard a few stories oon the radio about schools using real ballots for mock voting in school classes. I wonder if they were discarded after? Or saved to stuff a box by a lefty!!
School gymasiums are used for poling stations in Canada, it wouldn't be hard to do. It would be easy to stuff a ballot box there, they are a little to relaxed about those things.
Canadians might also hate those in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick if Washington had sent aid in 1775. Better that we didn't get the 14th colony. That would have really f***ed up our flag, 50 stars fit nicely.
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