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The thesis is dependent on the claim that the end of Iran's oil is 20 years away, but Iran has 90 billion barrels of reserves, 9% of the world total, and just discovered what is likely another 38 billion barrels. I can't see Iran running out of oil until the world runs out of oil.

There are number of ways to estimate global consumption. I just threw together a wicked simple linear estimation and it gives Iran about 40 years to pump out and deliver its 2005 proven reserves. I have faith the author spent more than five minutes [as I just did] to come up with the 20 year estimate. Nevertheless, I would like to see how the author did it... "Trust but verify" -RR

" I just threw together a wicked simple linear estimation and it gives Iran about 40 years to pump out and deliver its 2005 proven reserves. I have faith the author spent more than five minutes [as I just did] to come up with the 20 year estimate "

Here’s what I did with 10 minutes to kill:

3.7 mil barrels per day Iranian oil production * 365 = 1.3578 billion barrels/year. Add Iran’s 90 billion known reserves and 38 billion newly discovered and divide it by current production (2002) and you get about 94 years. This of course assumes current production, 100% recovery and no further discoveries.

My guess is the author needed a motive to support his thesis so he either lifted the 20 year field life figure from some environmental publication or he did something like dividing the highest daily production number ever by the lowest reserve estimate. Probably took him at least 20 minutes to pull that one off.