No they are not "thinking" as it is normally practiced in a free society and that is the problem.
One of the real problems that dictatorships have is something called "group think." This is where the dictator says I think that "A" will cause "B" to one subordinate. The subordinate will tell another peer, and that person will tell it to another peer. Then pretty soon they all get together in a single meeting and the last person on the chain says out loud that "A" will cause "B." The dictator and his first subordinate look at each other and say they suspected but didn't completely know that was true, so if this intelligent guy is saying it, it must be true.
That is how tight groups that have limited communications and don't actively question their own information sources, end up doing really stupid things.
People with nuclear weapons doing really stupid things is not good for society. Luckily, we are a long way from Iran. I am sure that concern within the middle east is much higher, just as concern near the North Korean boarders is much higher with that country's wacko leader on the nuclear button.
I hope that someday, the MSM reexamines W's speech were he called N. Korea, Iran and Iraq the axis of evil. The MSM is too busy portraying Bush as the village idiot to give him credit for the insights he has publicly made that were profound.