Firebrand politics of Iranian leader resonate on the streets (Interesting, but consider the source)

The nuclear issue has provided fertile ground for the president to try to cultivate a new political class, one that is ideologically driven to provide a new, and at the same time reactionary, face to Iran. After years of reformers controlling the government, Ahmadinejad is doing exactly what he promised, resurrecting the priorities of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini - founder of Iran's Islamic revolution, who called for Israel "to be wiped off the map" - chastising the West at every turn, and striving to forge a distinctly anti-Western national identity while re-establishing Iran's revolutionary influence across the Muslim world.

At a conference in October titled "The World Without Zionism," he effectively called for wiping not just Israel, but America, too, off the map.

"Many have tried to disperse disappointment in this struggle between the Islamic world and the infidels," he said. "They say it is not possible to have a world without the United States and Zionism. But you know that this is a possible goal and slogan."

While sprinkling like-minded people into positions of power across the country, Ahmadinejad and his allies have demonstrated that they are undeterred by complaints of the establishment, whether liberal or conservative. They have instead taken their appeal directly to the poor and middle class masses generally disgusted with a system widely viewed as corrupt and uncaring.

For the time being, they also have the quiet support of the nation's ultimate ruler, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Even those members of Parliament who charge that the president's foreign and domestic policies are sending the nation hurtling toward disaster find there is little to do but watch from the sidelines.

ARTICLE: Abdullah Momenie, a leader within the student movement that called for a boycott of the presidential election, said: "We see the sensitivity of the world community as a positive thing. Although we think it is an unwise action of power which may take the country to destruction, this might produce an opportunity for a democratic movement."

I liked this paragraph very much. I’ll explain why after developing my analysis of Ahmadinejad’s latest maneuvers, beyond the nuclear crisis…

The West is undoubtedly engaged in a serious conflict with Iran. Who is going to win? We should try to answer this question but we are going to have to make some pretty big assumptions. From this article you posted it seems like a question that depends on audience and influence. If the West is hard on Ahmadinejad, his audience feeds on it because it makes his point. He repeats to them that the West is not interested in peace but is instead interested in subjugating the people of the ME. He then reaches for snippets of history to affirm and legitimize his point. At his core Ahmadinejad is an isolationist as is Khamenei, as was Khomeini. But the scope of his isolation is Islam and that gives his administration considerable maneuverability in the region. The more progress he makes isolating Muslims from the West, the more ideological leverage he has in the region.

Reaching out to Muslims in Mecca increased Iran’s visibility and prestige regionally but was a political move that simultaneously reduced the authority of regional governments from which those Muslims came. This is an important point. It’s as though Tehran is the new Moscow and it is slowly acquiring the muscle to bring its neighbor governments to heel by hijacking their populations. Hajj fits perfectly into Iran’s plans to become the regional hegemon. The downside of this however is a systematic breakdown of solidarity among regional governments. Case in point, OPEC recently rejected Iran’s call to cut petroleum production/deliveries.

Considering these dynamics, we should be asking ourselves, what does Tehran get for its efforts? For one, the ME stage will be set for fulfilling Khomeini’s plan to export Islamic revolution. As Muslims turn their attention to Iran, the Valeyat of Tehran, currently Khamenei, will reign over a vast Islamic empire. Tehran’s empire will not be explicitly defined by geo-political borders but will hold 55% of the world’s proven oil reserves. That’s power! With that kind of power Iran will not need to tolerate freedom of expression in the West. Trivial threats [such as FR for example] to the regime anywhere in the world could be stopped in cold blood simply by picking up the phone. A call from an Iranian agent to a trusted Muslim could carry out the deed. If not, he could provide safe haven for the Iranian agent to do it himself. As this article implies, the Hajj is ideal recruiting ground for Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence Services (MOIS).

Alternatively, what does the West get for challenging Tehran? It doesn’t sound like much… The West gets to champion civil society in the midst of globalization. Sure it’s going to be expensive but the West cannot afford to drop the ball on the core freedoms that have come to define it. The incredible success the West enjoys leads me to believe tolerance triumphs over intolerance and therefore the open societies of the West will prevail over ME isolationists. Whether we like it or not, the West has to win this struggle, no matter what the cost.

No one ever said it was going to be easy. Actually Western leaders keep telling their citizens that propagating civil society is going to be very hard indeed! How hard? Palestinians electing Hamas circumstantially suggests the West’s audience in the ME is smaller than democratizers estimate. This finally brings us back to Abdullah Momenie comment.

Abdullah is the West’s audience. Informed and interested in what the entire world has to offer, Abdullah is our ally. The West has influence with Abdullah because his statement suggests he’s tolerant of Western culture and values. But instead of calling him up to ask him to eliminate trivial threats to the West, I believe the West should provide support and protection for Abdullah to express his views. I think the West should look at the threats to Abdullah’s core freedoms and recognize that Abdullah’s enemies are the worst enemies of the West. I would even take this logic a step further and recommend special ops teams be tasked to extract Iranian political prisoners – in other words rescue political prisoners in Iran. I think tolerance-operations such as rescuing Iranian political prisoners would clarify the role of the West in the ME and play a key role in wining the greater war against ME isolationists. I think operations like this would speak directly to the West’s audience as well as Ahmadinejad’s audience. Now I’m going to try to answer the question that sparked my commentary, bring up a few more questions and answer those as well. Who is going to win? The West! --- How will they win? Tolerance Operations! --- How long is it going to take? It does not Matter!

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