Pressure Grows on al Zarqawi and al Qaeda in Iraq

ABC News ^ | Jan. 30, 2006

[jmc1969]

There is increasing evidence that the fault lines between local Sunni Iraqi insurgents and the mostly foreign fighters of Abu Musaab al Zarqawi's al Qaeda in Iraq are deepening, according to a number of press reports.

If the trend continues, it can act to complete the integration of the Sunni minority into the political process, weaken the violent insurgency, and reduce attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces. The Sunnis are chasing the al Zarqawi men from all over the al Anbar Province. The implications are tremendous for Iraq, the American military presence in Iraq, and the war against al Qaeda. The tide has seemed to turn against the al Zarqawi network in Iraq.

Reports over the last week suggest that local tribes in Iraq's troubled western province of al Anbar have turned against al Zarqawi and his foreign militants and appear determined to expel them. The pan-Arab al Hayat newspaper reported on Friday that the campaign against the group had so far resulted in the arrest of 270 Arab and foreign "infiltrators" and a number of Iraqis, according to the leader of Al Karabla tribes in al Qa'em. An army officer told the paper that most of those arrested were Jordanians, Saudis and Syrians.

Al Hayat also reported on a series of armed clashes between local groups and al Qaeda in al Ramadi and other Sunni areas last week. "Security committees" were formed in coordination with the Iraqi defense minister to stop the militants who had killed a number of moderate religious and tribal figures. The paper also reported that six groups that had decided to stop all forms of cooperation with al Qaeda in Iraq had formed what they called "The People's Cells" in al Anbar to overlook security in the area.

While both al Zarqawi and the Iraqi militant groups were fighting a common enemy — the U.S. and coalition forces — Iraqi opposition to al Zarqawi and his brutal tactics had been building with the increasing death toll of civilians killed in al Qaeda's suicide attacks. Zarqawi's assassination of local tribal leaders also contributed to the building resentment. A split began to appear before the Dec. 15 elections. Many Sunni militants and tribes participated in the political process and voted in the elections, while al Qaeda in Iraq strongly opposed any form of political participation and threatened to kill those who did.

The growing split between Iraqi militant groups and tribes on one side and al Qaeda in Iraq on the other may provide an important window of opportunity for the U.S. diplomats and the Iraqi government. The Sunni campaign against al Zarqawi may represent the only way to eject al Zarqawi and his violent jihadists from Iraq since combat operations against the group by U.S. forces have failed to stop the terrorist attacks. Al Hayat reported that tribal leaders in al Anbar were already preparing for a dialogue with the government and the multicoalition forces this week. The paper had also reported that Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al Jaafari had agreed to replace the U.S. forces in Ramadi with local Iraqi forces as part of a deal in which the tribes promised to tighten the noose on foreign fighters. The deal was reached during a meeting between the prime minister, tribal leaders, and U.S. ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, according to the newspaper. The pressure on al Zarqawi occurs at a time of delicate negotiations between Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni parties to form a new government and underline the importance of fully including the Sunni minority in the political process.

[Coop]

Ping

[TravisBickle]

Sooner or later, the Sunni's will figure out that the US is not leaving as long as the insurgents are there. I think that their new strategy will be to go along with the US until we leave. And then they'll go back to fighting the Shi'ites.

[SCHROLL]

The Iraqi Sunnis are slowly beginning to realize that those claiming to be on their side aren't. It's about them gaining power and not getting it back for the Sunnis. These guys ALWAYS bite the hand that feed them when it comes down to it. Now if we can get them to come to the conclusion Iran is running the same game on them we can shut them out also.

[wvobiwan]

I've heard this before, I think it could also just be Sunnis using Al Queda for political cover.

When I see all of Al Queda in Iraq, and for that matter all of Iran's agents, arrested and/or executed by the legal Iraqi government/military, then I'll pay attention. Sunnis know who and where they are, I guarrantee it.

[Liberty Valance]

+

[FlipWilson]

Quote from ABC (dino news):

"If the trend continues, it can act to complete the integration of the Sunni minority into the political process, weaken the violent insurgency, and reduce attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces."

Left off of the quote but easily read to the end of it: "Damn It!!!!"

[Maceman]

Personally, I expect that the Sunnis will rat Zarqawi out to the coalition, if not whack him themselves.

[SaxxonWoods]

I agree with the thrust of the article, we reached the tipping point about 6 weeks ago. However, this quote:

"The pan-Arab al Hayat newspaper reported on Friday that the campaign against the group had so far resulted in the arrest of 270 Arab and foreign "infiltrators" and a number of Iraqis, according to the leader of Al Karabla tribes in al Qa'em. An army officer told the paper that most of those arrested were Jordanians, Saudis and Syrians."

...is suspect, according to Bill Roggio, who has been pretty dependable on these matters. The report may be propaganda by Iraqi media, which is just fine with me, but the US military is not confirming the report as late as yesterday.

www.billroggio.com

[WOSG]

Liberating Iraq BUMP!

Very good news. The end of the road for Zarqawi in Anbar,
and the 'light at the end of the tunnel' for Iraqi peace.

[bnelson44]

Agreed. We are not that far along.

Also note that the attacks in the Baqubah region have dramatically increased.

[IronJack]

Sounds like resistance to these vermin is paying dividends. Unlike the appeasement proposed by certain parties from the other side of the aisle ...

[adorno]

The Sunnis are chasing the al Zarqawi men from all over the al Anbar Province.

If true, that would be good news for the Iraqi people as a whole and their new government. But, it would be bad news for al-Zarqawi, al-Qaeda, and the democratic party in the U.S.

[50sDad]

Sooner or later, the Sunni's will figure out that the US is not leaving as long as the insurgents are there.

Dead on. My thoughts exactly. "Toughing it out," despite turn and run Dems, is beginning to pay off.

Post-Clinton's-Sumalia disaster, and after W's Dad promised support to toss out Saddam (and we left), these people are waiting to see if America has a backbone and some nards. We are proving that we mean what we say, and we say we aren't bailing, we aren't leaving, we aren't "issuing a printed withdrawal schedule" until there's some kind of peace that can sustain itself after we go. Take that, Hillary!

[Southack]

"Sooner or later, the Sunni's will figure out that the US is not leaving as long as the insurgents are there. I think that their new strategy will be to go along with the US until we leave. And then they'll go back to fighting the Shi'ites."

No, the military option is the "Beggar's Choice" for the Sunni's. Sunni's are only 20% of the Iraqi populace, whereas Shi'ites are 60%. Moreover, the Shi'ites control half of Iraq's oil (the Kurds control the other half)...and in addition, the Shi'ites and Kurds have foreign backing from various nearby states.

What the Sunnis did was to make an extremely bad choice for their long-term survival...probably because they feared losing their positions of wealth and influence that they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein...which made them see the U.S. as their enemy.

But that unintellectual thought process has got them fighting Kurds and Shi'ites (i.e. 80% of the Iraqi population) as well as the U.S. military...it's got them missing out on the level of U.S. funded reconstruction that the rest of Iraq is enjoying...it's locked them out of the new Iraqi government's power hierarchy...and it's stuck them fighting and dying along the very Al Qaeda fanatics who **hate** the less radical Iraqi Sunni's. So it's hardly surprising that the Sunnis came around to participate in the most recent election in Iraq...that they are signing on, tribe after tribe, with either the new Iraqi government, the U.S. military coalition, or both...and that they resent the foreign military presence of Al Qaeda in their midst.

Eventually, they will figure out that the Shi'ites and Kurds (80% of Iraq) aren't simply wiping out the remaining troublesome Sunni tribes (far less than 20% of Iraq by now) **only**BECAUSE**OF**THE**US**PRESENCE**IN**IRAQ.

Now there's irony for you.

The Shi'ites and Kurds aren't engaging in wholesale genocide of Sunni's in Iraq for the simple reason that the U.S. won't permit it. Which is to say, the Sunni's have a de facto ally in the U.S. presence in Iraq...and therefor that the Sunni's have only a limited time window in which to make amends with the Shi'ites and Kurds prior to the inevitable U.S. military drawdown there.

[Southack]

"I agree with the thrust of the article, we reached the tipping point about 6 weeks ago."

Earlier. The insurgents were unable to stop the last 3 free elections in Iraq. After the October 15th election (which had 63+% national Iraqi voter turnout, up from 60% in the previous election), our fatalities in Iraq have been on a declining trend.

October 96
November 83
December 66
January 59 *to date

[strategofr]

"An army officer told the paper that most of those arrested were Jordanians, Saudis and Syrians."

Perhaps I'm naïve, but wouldn't it be worth it for the U. S. to provide the equipment, expertise, and personnel to provide every Iraqi citizen with a biometric ID card? I realize this would have to be approved by the Iraqi government.

[strategofr]

"The Sunni campaign against al Zarqawi may represent the only way to eject al Zarqawi and his violent jihadists from Iraq since combat operations against the group by U.S. forces have failed to stop the terrorist attacks."

This is an incomplete view. U. S. forces have been kicking the crap out of the Anwahr province. Surely this is part of the motivation the Sunnis have for getting rid of al Qaeda there. ABC is making it sound like we should stop operations and just let the Sunnis take over. Seems to me like it's just the opposite. Increase the tempo of the operations to get more of the successful indirect effect.

Presumably, some of the Al Qaeda are being moved to other provinces from Anwhar. Maybe we can hit some of them before they settle in. It seems like there would be a period of high vulnerability right after such a move. Sort of like the first few seconds when a chameleon moves to a new spot.

[strategofr]

"Sooner or later, the Sunni's will figure out that the US is not leaving as long as the insurgents are there.

Dead on. My thoughts exactly. "Toughing it out," despite turn and run Dems, is beginning to pay off.

Post-Clinton's-Sumalia disaster, and after W's Dad promised support to toss out Saddam (and we left), these people are waiting to see if America has a backbone and some nards. We are proving that we mean what we say, and we say we aren't bailing, we aren't leaving, we aren't "issuing a printed withdrawal schedule" until there's some kind of peace that can sustain itself after we go. Take that, Hillary!"

You have more confidence that I do that Hillary will lose in '08. If she wins, we're out.

[strategofr]

"But that unintellectual thought process has got them fighting Kurds and Shi'ites (i.e. 80% of the Iraqi population) as well as the U.S. military.."

This whole post is a good analysis with a lot of truth in it.

In my opinion, you are missing one significant thread. The Sunnis used to be clients of the Soviet Union. I believe they are currently functioning as clients of Russia. it should be clear by now to most people that the Iranians are clients of Russia.

As we know, the ruling Iranians and 60% of Iraqis are both Shi'ites. I believe Iraqi Shi'ites trust the Iranians, to a large extent and that many of them are secretly allying with them in anticipation of the US pullout.

This puts the Iranians in a position to betray the Shi'ites which in my opinion they are already doing. Here's how I figure this. Al Qaeda has to kill somebody in Iraq to do their thing. otherwise, a strong democratic Iraqi government forms, becomes relatively prosperous, military strong, the U. S. withdraws in triumph.

The easiest people for Al Qaeda to kill were Sunnis which they were doing at one point. That backfired since it is only the Sunnis who will shield them and the Sunnis didn't like being killed. So Al Qaeda quickly stopped that.


Instead, they now kill Shi'ites.

Consider this: why don't they ever kill any Kurds? Answer: they can't. Kurdish security works and Shi'ite security does not work. I think the reason is that the Shi'ites trust the Iranians and the Iranians betray them to the Russians and the Russians betray them to the Sunnis and Al Qaeda---Al Qaeda being another Russian client, in my opinion.

If my analysis is correct, it is possible that when the US withdraws, the Iranians and Russians will be in position to effectively take over, in a large part via subversion.