No. That is true of the counts respecting Russert, but not the counts involving Miller and Cooper. As to the odds, ruch to Tradesports and place your money. Last I checked the odds were at 48%.(Odds of Rove indictment by March 31 were 16%).
Without returning to a detailed review, I can't say you are incorrect on that. But the general point I have been trying to make is to show that the indictment does NOT reduce to a "reporter said - Libby said" dispute, or to a question of "who knew first, Libby or some reporter(s)?"
The indictment asks this. At the time in interest, was Libby "informed only as well as every other guy in the rumor mill," or was he "well aware that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA?"
The core charge of the indictment is that Libby tried to lead investigators to the conclusion that he was just another guy in the rumor mill.
The charge of Libby hiding his actual awareness from investigators is the same whether or not Plame worked for the CIA. It is the same if reporters knew Plame worked for the CIA before Libby did. The charge in the indictment remains if Plame is covert or if she is not. The charge in the indictment remains if the reporters knew of Plame before Libby did, even if every reporter in town knew before Libby did.
The charge is that Libby withheld his "actual awareness" in testimony to investigators.
33. It was further part of the corrupt endeavor that at the time defendant LIBBY made each of the above-described materially false and intentionally misleading statements and representations to the grand jury, LIBBY was aware that they were false, in that: ...At the time of this conversation [Russert], LIBBY was well aware that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA; in fact, LIBBY had participated in multiple prior conversations concerning this topic, including on the following occasions: ...
[list of June contacts with VP, CIA, State Dept. deleted]
Count 2
4. As defendant LIBBY well knew when he made it [to agents of the FBI], this statement was false in that when LIBBY spoke with Russert on or about July 10 or 11, 2003: ...
b. At the time of this conversation, LIBBY was well aware that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA
Count 4
3. In truth and fact, as LIBBY well knew when he gave this testimony [to the grand jury], it was false in that: ...
b. At the time of this conversation [with Russert], LIBBY was well aware that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA
Count 5
3. In truth and fact, as LIBBY well knew when he gave this testimony, it was false in that LIBBY did not advise Matthew Cooper or other reporters that LIBBY had heard other reporters were saying that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA, nor did LIBBY advise Cooper or other reporters that LIBBY did not know whether this assertion was true.
Count 3 involves the conversation with Cooper, and the language of the indictment is ambiguous. It could wash out as a non-count, or it could be the same "lie" described in the counts above.
... in response to questions posed to him by agents of the FBI, [Libby] stated that:
During a conversation with Matthew Cooper of Time magazine on July 12, 2003, LIBBY told Cooper that reporters were telling the administration that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA, but LIBBY did not know if this was true.3. As defendant LIBBY well knew when he made it, this statement was false in that:
LIBBY did not advise Cooper ... that reporters were telling the administration that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA, nor did LIBBY advise him that LIBBY did not know whether this was true; rather, LIBBY confirmed for Cooper, without qualification, that LIBBY had heard that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA.
The ambiguity is in the direction of the indictment's phrase "but LIBBY did not know if this was true," where the word "this" represents the fact that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA.
One resolution of the ambiguity is that Libby testified to investigators that he told Cooper that he didn't know if it was true that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA. Lying to Cooper is legal.
The other resolution is that Libby testified to investigators that at the time of the conversation with Cooper, he personally and in fact didn't know if it was true that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA. Lying to investigators is not legal.
Comparing Libby's and Cooper's recollection, Libby comes off as just another person in the rumor mill no matter which of those two is taken as true. Either way, the investigator would conclude that Libby was not well aware that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA.
Libby: I told Cooper that we were hearing from other reporters that Wilson's wife works at the CIA from other reporters, but that I didn't know it that's true. Cooper: I asked if he'd heard that Wilson's wife worked at the CIA, and Libby said he had heard that.