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Here are my predictions about the winners. Note that I'm not saying that who I think will win actually deserves to win, and, for that matter, the one most deserving of the recognition might not even be nominated in the first place.

Performance by an actor in a leading role
At least they didn't put Felicity Hoffman in this category. It's between Hoffman (Capote) and Ledger (Brokeback). I was thinking it would be a Brokeback sweep to give it the big push that it needs for DVD sales, but I think they'll share the wealth and give it to Hoffman. "Walk the Line" is being snubbed totally.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
George Clooney's politics beats out Gyllenhaal's homosexuality.

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Felicity Huffman wins by default because "Walk the Line" is being snubbed. The rationale will be "Hello? It's Reese Witherspoon." (So they'll go with a Desperate Housewife). (sidenote: the movie probably would have been more interesting if the lead was a male actor.)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Didn't see any of them. (Actually, I haven't seen anything from any of the categories, so far, but you really don't need to to know how the voting will go. You only need to see them to know how they should go.) The women in Brokeback are an afterthought, but the actors won't win, so Michelle Williams will win. Rachel Weisz, however, will be the hottest one of the five there that night.

Best animated feature film of the year
I only saw "Corpse Bride" but I'm thinking "Howl's Moving Castle" wins. I don't know why, but I am. (I have to rent W&G.)

Achievement in art direction
Achievement in cinematography
Achievement in costume design
Achievement in makeup
Achievement in sound editing
Achievement in sound mixing
Achievement in visual effects
I have come to believe that the technical folks actually value their craft more than their politics, so I won't hazard many guesses because I've seen few of the films involved. King Kong will probably be tossed one and Geisha, which had been an Oscar contender not long ago, will probably get the costumes. Makeup will go to Star Wars or Narnia (which had nice period costumes, too, but wasn't nominated).

Achievement in directing
Ang Lee, straight off his directing of "The Hulk" is a shoe-in. ("Straigh off", heh heh, I crack me up.)

Best documentary feature
“March of the Penguins” was such a wonderful little picture that it probably won't win. At least there isn't a Moore film in the category. I don't really know the other movies in the category, so no further info.

Best documentary short subject
Based on the title alone, the winner is “God Sleeps in Rwanda”.

Achievement in film editing
Brokeback isn't nominated, so they'll toss this one to Munich. Walk the Line will be snubbed.

Best foreign language film of the year
Italy usually does well in this category, so that's “Don’t Tell”, but don't count out “Tsotsi” from South Africa.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
Another “Brokeback Mountain” win

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
For once, I haven't been hearing the songs on the radio, so I know little about them individually. Gut-check tells me to go with the pair of Dolly Parton and Transamerica.

Best motion picture of the year
Duh. “Brokeback Mountain” will repeat from the Director category.

Best animated short film
No information. Not political.

Best live action short film
No information. Not political.

Adapted screenplay
“Brokeback Mountain”. Granted, there's a lot of PC crap to spread the manure around, which might allow for a surprise.

Original screenplay
"Good Night, and Good Luck.” Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov is just about a lock. It'll be funny if Clooney loses out to Syriana, but they wouldn't do that to him.

And that's the way it'll be, Oscar Night 2006.