Voter data suggest California may be more purple than blue

Sacramento BEE ^ | 2/6/06 | Dan Walters

[SierraWasp]

Dan Walters: Voter data suggest California may be more purple than blue

By Dan Walters -- Bee Columnist Published 2:15 am PST Monday, February 6, 2006

The conventional wisdom these days is that California is a solidly blue state - based on Democrats' near-sweep of major political contests over the last decade and especially George W. Bush's two million-plus-vote losses in the state. More accurately, however, California is a purple state, as new voter registration data indicate.

California's 15.8 million registered voters now divide themselves into 6.7 million Democrats (42.68 percent), 5.9 million Republicans (34.68 percent), 2.9 million independents (18.8 percent) and a smattering of minor party adherents.

Three decades ago, it was an entirely different story. The Democratic Party, buoyed by fallout from the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal, hit a modern high point with 57.4 percent of nearly 10 million registered voters in 1976 while Republicans were, interestingly, almost exactly where they are now at 34.8 percent. Democrats, moreover, had pluralities or majorities in 57 of 58 counties, lacking only Orange County.

(snip)

Since then, there has been a steady erosion of Democratic voter strength in California while Republicans have maintained a consistent share in the mid-30 percent range. Clearly, Democrats' registration losses have not translated into Republican gains, but into a fast-growing independent sector. Indeed, the margin between the two major parties - eight percentage points - is about as small as it's been since the Great Depression.

There's also been a massive redistribution of voter strength. The coastal urban areas have become more Democratic while the faster-growing inland counties - dubbed "Edge Cities" by some - and rural areas have become more Republican. Republicans, in fact, now claim 37 counties, a huge increase from just one in 1976.

[SierraWasp]

This certainly challenges the shaky assumptions of quite a few CA FReepers on the subject of a Conservative getting elected in CA. Reagan did it when it was WAY harder than it is, today!!! Republicans dominated in only one state when he left it for Juvenile Jerry Brown to win with Jimmy Carter in 1976, now Republican dominate in 37 of the 58 Counties? Amazing! Republicans need to get back to their 1996 conservative roots of a decade ago!!!

[Servant of the 9]

Voter data suggest California may be more purple than blue

That would be lavender.

So9

[Ben Mugged]

And every time I see a liberal I show them my purple finger.

[SierraWasp]

Only the San Fransideshow city/county!!!

[SierraWasp]

I love that! I hope it's the right one!!!

[MillerCreek]

I'll DITTO that! Well said.

[presidio9]

That's because most Californians wouldn't know a Republican if he walked up to them and told them to get a job. They have Arnold Schwarzenegger for a benchmark.

[MillerCreek]

I have my (entirely non scientifically determined) opinion about this and that is that a lot of liberals/Demos have moved to mostly Oregon and Washington, some to Canada, and then a lot of Republicans/conservatives departed earlier for Utah, Colorado, Idaho and Montana but those who remained resolutely in the state represent the existing conservative voters in CA (those who have stuck it out and remained there).

The once-higher Democrats have somewhat departed the state while the remainig Republicans have stuck it out and there you go, the current percentages.

The growing illegal alien population in the state is responsible for most among both departing the place.

[RockinRight]

San Francisco is lavender.

[BunnySlippers]

Bookmark

[Battle Hymn of the Republic]

while I would love it if there were a conservative revolution in CA, there won't be.

pick your reason why: illegals, RINOS, the media, arnold, legislature, etc. Everyone is drifting left it seems.

while the liberals keep driving left, so are the republicans, in CA and nationwide for that matter.

I hate to be so negative, but I think it would be much harder for Reagan to get elected now...

[TheZMan]

Since then, there has been a steady erosion of Democratic voter strength in California while Republicans have maintained a consistent share in the mid-30 percent range. Clearly, Democrats' registration losses have not translated into Republican gains, but into a fast-growing independent sector. Indeed, the margin between the two major parties - eight percentage points - is about as small as it's been since the Great Depression.

Tells me that Cali is slowly, year by year, transitioning as the mindset and ideology of the Dims is shown to fail miserably. Give it another 10 years and Cali should be voting conservative.

Remember that for the most part people carry on the political views of their parents. Leaving that pattern behind is a very slow process that takes people like Feingold/Clinton/Reid/Kennedy to push along.

[The Dude Abides]

The California GOP's problem is that the primary system elects the most right-wing politico out there. I know that RINOs and moderates are thin gruel, but I would prefer one of them to a libral democrat.

Case in point: Rosario Marin would have beat the socks off Barbar Boxer.

[jim_trent]

Another reason is because California conservatives insist on repeatedly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Until they can learn to work together, they will continue to lose. It is amazing how many splinters the Californa conservatives can break into rather than uniting on one candidate and backing him/her wholeheartedly.

[FairOpinion]

CALIFORNIA VOTER AND PARTY PROFILES
August 2005

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/JTF_VoterProfilesJTF.pdf


"The Democratic Party currently has an advantage of 1.4 million voters over the Republican Party (7.1 million to 5.7 million) or 9 percentage points (43% to 34%), according to the Secretary of State.

Among those most likely to vote in this year’s elections, Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 7-point margin (44% to 37%), while 15 percent of likely voters are registered as independents.

... the fact that independents are more likely to lean toward Democrats than Republicans (42% to 28%) tends to work to the disadvantage of the GOP in statewide elections."

[Battle Hymn of the Republic]

so much can happen in ten years. I have a bad feeling the chicoms will be running the people's republic of Kalifornia...

[Terabitten]

Give it another 10 years and Cali should be voting conservative.

Then we'll REALLY hear the Dems scream about dissolving the Electoral College. There is *no* reasonable scenario in which the Dems can win the presidency without California's 55 electoral votes.

[The Dude Abides]

If Hillary is the Dem. candidate in 2008, California go GOP.

[FairOpinion]

"Republicans have maintained a consistent share in the mid-30 percent range. "


===

That's what I call a really decisive Republican majority. (/sarcasm)


IOW 65% of the voters are NOT Republicans.

[presidio9]

I am a NY voter. We do the same thing here, and I find it completely unacceptable. As a result we end up with people like Mike Bloomberg.


The guys you think of as right-wing only appear that way in comparison to their opposition. They are typically mainstream Republicans. Ronald Reagan was a conservative, not an extremist.