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To: Ohioan from Florida
1.6 million children are estimated to run away from home each year....

There are between 4 and 4.5 million births in the U.S. each year. If 1.6 million children run away each year, that works out to more than one child in three running away. Does that strike you as credible? Does it make you wonder about the definition of "running away"? Does it make you wonder how many come back home? There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, and we need to be skeptical of statistical claims, especially when they originate from someone with an agenda.

70 posted on 02/10/2006 10:45:44 AM PST by Sarastro
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To: Sarastro

Children remain children for 18 years- so if they are 4 to 4.5 million births each year, then that means there are 72-81 million children in U.S. (not even counting those both elsewhere who immigrate to the U.S. as children). So about 2.2% of children run away (which could include anything from children leaving home for a few hours after arguing with parents to living on the streets for years). That isn't unreasonable.


73 posted on 02/10/2006 10:57:57 AM PST by LWalk18
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To: Sarastro
If 1.6 million children run away each year, that works out to more than one child in three running away. Does that strike you as credible?

Not arguing with your overall suspiciousness of the numbers, but your math is off and would only make sense if 1.6 million children of each age ran away. Think of it this way. 4 million kids of each age between 10 and 16 (the running-away years) makes 28 million kids. 1.4 million kids is only about 6% of that total

75 posted on 02/10/2006 11:06:54 AM PST by Heyworth ("More weight!"--Giles Corey)
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To: Sarastro

Look, I understand about lying with statistics just fine. You're doing it, too. The statistics aren't saying that there are 1.6 million babies running away, it says children. Not the same. (You should probably multiply the 4-4.5 million births each year by the number of years there are children available to run away. Let's say that kids that could conceivably *run away* would be from ages, say for example, six or seven to age 18. That's 11 or 12 years times the 4-4.5 million babies born each year. What's that, roughly 500 million children of running away age? If my math is right, and I know it could be wrong, that's more like one in 300 or more kids run away, a more credible number). In other words, anyone can make the *statistic* say whatever they want it to, including you and me.

I understand your point. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, and we don't have all the *definitions* the officials use for running away. They don't explain how many come back home. The point I'm making is that despite the numbers that are really involved, it would be wise for parents to go over the safety rules with their children. It is a good thing to be aware that this happens.


76 posted on 02/10/2006 11:07:47 AM PST by Ohioan from Florida (The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.- Edmund Burke)
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