"My dad, who spent many years in China and Asia, always predicted China would not remain Communist for long. The Chinese have been bankers, traders and brokers for generations, unlike the Russians who are suspicious of "profit.""
Excellent point. I believe that!
By 1921 thanks to W.W.I, civil war, and other turmoil Russia was in shambles.
This is from a book review of Russia's Last Capitalists: The Nepmen, 1921-1929 by Alan M. Ball (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
The reviewer is Richard M. Ebeling, August 1991.
"Russia was not ready for a full and immediate leap into either socialism or communism. What Russia needed, at least for a time, was a return to bourgeois capitalism. . .
"In the spring of 1921, Lenin announced the institution of a 'New Economic Policy.' . . . Agricultural land was returned to the ownership and control of the peasants . . . Retail businesses, small companies and medium-sized industries were permitted to be established. Only foreign trade and what the Bolsheviks called the 'commanding heights' of the economy — heavy and large industry — remained in state-owned and state-managed hands. [Sound familiar?]
"The economy boomed. Food supplies, while not particularly cheap, were available in plentiful supply in all the cities. Shops were filled with consumer goods, and service industries abounded. Freed from the dead hand of total and rigid central planning, the entrepreneurial spirit blossomed among the Russian people. The Russians showed themselves to be as industrious and productive as any of the peoples of the West, once they had the opportunity to earn profits on the market, and once they could own private property and feel a degree of security in its possession. . . .
"The party apparatus resented the reestablishment of a 'capitalist class.' . . .
"Russia's limited capitalism was hampered and straight-jacketed at every turn. But what the Nepmen demonstrated is that Russia could be wealthy and prosperous . . .
"[it all ended in 1929] With Stalin's rise to power in the Communist Party, total central planning was reinstituted. Private property was again nationalized. Then, in one of the worst crimes and tragedies of the 20th century, Stalin ordered the collectivization of all farming into state farms; and his plan was effected through planned famines, mass murders and deportations to slave labor camps in Siberia."
[End of excerpts. My emphasis and comment]
Red China is much more likely to follow this pattern. The difference is the Chi-com party cadre are many of the "Nepmen." The Chi-coms have killed off more citizens than Stalin. Their "great leaps" upon the backs of citizens killed tens of millions. A few tens of millions more won't matter.
This has been the Chi-com version of NEP. Deng and the Chi-coms studied NEP even before Mao died, I believe -- Deng even grilled Armand Hammer about his experiences in Russia at the time.