Hopefully, you're right and this won't make the final jump to a human to human mode. But this possibility is giving the CDC a lot of sleepless nights...
"We are dealing with a highly lethal virus that no one has natural immunity to." Dr Gerberding, CDC
Alarm bells are going off all over the world in the medical community. Our government has already produced around 7 million vaccine doses for an earlier bird flu strain (from Vietnam) and has just announced a crash program to develop a new vaccine for the latest variant, which is even more deadly to humans (over 70% mortality rate in Indonesia). The CDC goal is to get enough vaccine to hopefully protect the military, government functions and first responders. It will take much longer (years?) to produce enough vaccine for use by the general population and in any event it is unlikely a final vaccine can be developed until the final variant is known - which means it is spreading like wildfire (if it ever gets to this stage) and it won't do the average Joe much good.
It appears inevitable a highly pathogenic version of this virus will spread to the USA in migrating birds this year just as it is rapidly doing in the rest of the world. Probably the "best" we can hope for is economic havoc in our poultry industries - as is happening in already infected regions.
If this rapidly mutating virus jumps the species barrier into humans things could get really bad. Recent reports have government officials now advising individuals stock up their households to prepare for a widespread quarantine of at least 6 weeks. However, modeling based on previous experience indicates several 3-5 month waves of a pandemic disease are more realistic so 6 weeks would seem minimal. If I recall, New Zealand is already telling it's populace to prepare for a 6 month seige.
A lot of people pooh-pooh this, equating it to the Y2K scare. The medical community isn't thinking that way. One can only hope if it breaks out it can be contained. Both possibilities are open questions and one shouldn't lightly dismiss either one, IMHO.
-A lot of people pooh-pooh this, equating it to the Y2K scare. The medical community isn't thinking that way.
I've been hearing about this for a long time now. How long before we can safely say it was much ado about nothing? You know I am not a very superstitious person but sometimes I think the last great epidemic was an almost biblical thing related to the Great War.
I've read about "the government" telling people to stock up for longer terms here on FR but not in the general news.
Why are these reports not more common place in the news?
I agree but you cannot tell people who wish to scoff how serious this is. They won't believe it till they see it.
Luckily, we won't have to make any vaccine for people who truly believe in intelligent design and know that the avian flu virus cannot evolve into something that can be passed from human to human