The left chart, shows the dramatic negative trends of the U.S dollar vs. currencies of several industrial trading partners - - a drop up to 74% in the dollar's international power - past 35 years.
Posted on 03/14/2006 1:48:55 PM PST by LM_Guy
In his annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett acknowledged that his bet against U.S. currency had collectively cost them almost $1 billion. Buffet wrote, "My views on America’s long-term problem in respect to trade imbalances, which I have laid out in previous reports, remain unchanged. My conviction, however, cost Berkshire $955 million pre-tax in 2005. ..."
In recent years, Buffett has increasingly used his platform as an extraordinarily skillful mutual fund manger to criticize the economic performance of the country under President Bush. In last year's letter he announced that he had been significantly increasing his position against the dollar, citing a growing trade deficit as the reason. Buffett's statement that America was moving from being an ownership society to a "sharecropper’s society" and other criticisms received quite a bit of media attention.
As the chart shows, rising trade deficits cannot be presumed to cause a falling dollar. The data show the dollar strengthening against the euro at a time when trade deficits are rising. This also happened during the Reagan Administration. It is consistent with supply side economics, which sees the value of the dollar determined by the tightness or looseness of our central bank. A free flow of goods, services and capital across borders does not seem to have had any negative impact on the value of the dollar.
http://www.humaneventsonline.com/images/2006-03-14_Bowyer_Chart_lg.jpg
The trade "deficit" is a phony measurement that exists for liberals to have some reason to say the economy is bad during boomtimes because the trade deficit number is always high in a good and improving economy. Foreigners invest their money in a good American economy because it is the safest place for their money.All that investment improves the economy and provides the money with which Americans buy foreign goods. The trade "balance" measures only half of that transaction and will always show more money going out than coming in in a boom because it simply does not measure the money coming in. It torques me to no end when conservatives, otherwise apparently intelligent conservatives, insist on getting all wrought up as a result of a contrived liberal "measurment" for trashing a booming economy.
You're entitled to you opinion, but the trade deficit is not a phony stat, nor was it invented by "liberals".
Without supporting clarification, your graphs are pretty much worthless to me.
For instance: the dollar's value went up and down in comparison to which currency?
It is half a stat. When the trade deficit number is "good" the economy is bad and vice very much versa. It's ONLY fucntion is to make a good economy look bad.
LOL!
And in the long run, we are all dead. ;~))
Buffet is a fine business man but every time he tries to play economist, he gets burnt. You would think he would have learned the difference between business and economics by now.
You don't know, and you're not interested in searching (clusty, answers, or atheweb) your way through it. I'm guessing, but it sure seems to me that either this kind of independent thinking is beyond you, or your specialty is complaining, not doing. Either way, this means that you have no supporting data of your own because you never needed any --that your position is based on emotions, not facts.
I'll know I'm right if you come back at me with a bunch of name-calling. I'll know I'm wrong if you double check my plots by finding/making your own numbers and you then prove me wrong by showing me how you're making money on some trend I didn't know about.
I'd really prefer being proved wrong.
--and it doesn't stop there:
What about our labor shortage-- employers are even hiring illegals because they can't get any applicants. Then there's also the fact that every time somebody makes a bigger fortune we have greater income disparity between the richest of the rich and the poorest of the poor.
No wait --I'm just getting started!
We go from $20 trill net worth ($25T assets - 4$T debt) to $50 trillion ($61T-$10T) ---that's bad because we have more debt now! Interest rates up? -- we're being gouged by the evil bank lenders. Rates down? Miserly bankers won't pay us for what our savings are worth!
Face it-- anyone who never believed the conjecture about the infinite number of monkeys at an infinite number of keyboards, has never visited the freerepublic.
That's because UW fans actually know where Gonzaga is, so it loses its mystique. I call it the Notre Dame Effect. Nobody knows where you're from, so they just start rooting for you and call it good.
Bottom line. Buffett was dead wrong and lost his share holders a billion dollars.
If you think its my job to do background research on your shoddy graphs, you're wrong.
You were trying to make a point, so the onus is on you to provide the info.
My "supporting data" is a working knowledge of simple economics. There's no emotion in it, and I'm not trying to talk down the economy.
As for making money on some trend you don't know about: Hey, if you're so certain Buffet is wrong, why not just go out today and short the daylights out of every foreign currency you can find? By your "research", that ougtha make you a millionaire soon enough.
The left chart, shows the dramatic negative trends of the U.S dollar vs. currencies of several industrial trading partners - - a drop up to 74% in the dollar's international power - past 35 years.
My favorite conundrum is the poor Katrina refugees that have to get their unemployment periods lengthened because they just can't find work now. Meanwhile the illegals are flooding NO for the work which is well paid because the rebuilders can't even get enough illegals to keep the wages down.
Insults -- I was right, you have no idea what you're talking about. I'd really hoped that I was about to learn something. It does happen here sometimes. Tell you what-- since I'm such a nice guy, here're the data and here's a source link (free registration req'd) just in case you want more numbers to crunch.
Enjoy --don't say I never gave ya' nottin'!
|
Leftist charts usually give off lots of drama, to mention plenty of leftist bias for their loopy political agendas.
Numbers from the Fed aren't dramatic at all; in fact, they're down right boring, like the one on the right.
Yawn.
zzzzzzzzzzz OH golly sorry-- or any of the other plots from the St. Louis Fed Economic Research site or data from the Federal Reserve Board Statistics: Releases and Historical Data.
This also explains why econ majors never suffer from insomnia.
"Insults -- I was right"
Really? What insults?
...you think its my job to do background research on your shoddy graphs
"Insults -- I was right"
...Really? What insults?
LOL! Like I always say anyone who can't stand being sniped at has no business on the Freerepublic! Seriously, this is an important topic and you're right to be passionate about it; and anyway by now you've compared my graph to the Fed's graph.
Cheers.
Unlike your graph, the fed graph shows exactly what it is a graph of (ie. dollar value vs trade weighted major currencies).
So now, on to the point: The graph shows the dollar falling aginst major currencies since about 2002.
Wasn't that Buffet's point? It may not be happening soon or severely enough for his position to pay off, but its happening nonetheless.
But nothing.
Buffet's goofy ideas don't make sense and they fooled his dupes into losing a billion dollars. You're never going to convince me either that I should invest in Buffet's snake-oil or that my taxes need to go back up.
Let's cut a deal. I say my graph was bad, and you stop pushing Buffet's goofy tax hike schemes. I mean, you don't trust him with your money, why should I have to trust him with mine?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
