Posted on 04/17/2006 1:32:48 PM PDT by SLB
CBN.com – (CBN News) - Some believe that the world as we have known it is about to change.
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) is talking about what he thinks could be the biggest challenge in our nation's history.
"The world has never faced a problem like this," Bartlett said.
A huge and sustained increase in the price of oil that would devastate our economy and the world economy, and would force all of us to change the way we live. Why?
It is a phenomenon known as "peak oil." The idea is that oil is a finite resource. There is only so much of it in the ground, and eventually we will start to run out.
One of the leading advocates of this theory is oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons. In his book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Simmons uses reams of hard geological data to argue that the oil fields of Saudi Arabia -- the world's largest producer -- are in serious decline, and prices for oil at some point will skyrocket.
The quantity and price of oil follows a bell curve. When Saudi oil was first discovered and oil production was growing, the amount of Saudi oil on the market kept increasing, assuring low prices. But at the point when Saudi oil production falls and can no longer meet demand, prices go up.
And because energy-hungry nations like China and India are in the midst of economic booms, the demand for energy is increasing daily, while the supply of oil, if it is shrinking, will make oil scarcer, and much more expensive.
Some of us remember gasoline prices of 29 cents a gallon or less. Today, we have gotten used to gas prices that were once unthinkable. But what if gas prices were $7 a gallon, or more?
Bartlett said, "The peaking may have already occurred. If not now, then very soon. So I think we are probably beyond the point where we can avoid the consequences of peaking. I think what we need to do now is to simply minimize the consequences of peaking. I don't think we have a prayer of avoiding the consequences of peaking."
What is the absolute worst-case scenario from peak oil? A world war over oil supplies. But the less dire economic scenarios are not much better. It would most certainly lead to a deep worldwide recession, or even a depression.
Our economy and way of life has been built around affordable oil. Many of us live in the suburbs. We have to drive to work, to grocery stores, to just about everywhere. We enjoy a high standard of living, thanks to affordable goods and services made possible because of cheap energy.
An oil price spike to perhaps $200 dollars a barrel or more could wreck whole sectors of our economy, like the airline industry, which is already hurting from oil at $70 a barrel. Just think what would happen if airline ticket prices tripled from today's levels!
Peak oil prices would also pour a lot more money into the coffers of some regimes around the world who do not like the United States.
But if there is a plus side to peak oil, it is that unaffordable oil would finally force businesses to invest seriously in developing alternative fuel technologies.
Simmons' book has created such a stir in the energy industry that the world's largest oil company, ExxonMobil, created an ad to dispute it. It says that the Earth still has plenty of untapped oil to meet demand for decades to come.
Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a free-market think-tank, said, “At some point, oil production will peak. I think that is a long ways away…In the early 1930s, the Department of Interior estimated that we'd run out of oil by 1940. So there's a long history of predicting these things, and most of the predictions turn out not to be true.”
There is plenty of oil in the ground right here in America, but environmental protection laws prevent us from drilling for it.
Ebell also observed, “There are political obstacles to oil production in many places in the world -- most seriously in the United States.”
But if Simmons is right, America is facing a serious problem that Bartlett warns may now be too late to prepare for. He says we must begin to conserve, and to develop other sources of energy.
“I think this is going to be the overarching problem for the next decade,” Bartlett said. “We will transition from fossil fuels to renewables (renewable energy). Geology will insist on that. It will be a really bumpy ride or a less bumpy ride, depending on how we relate ourselves to it and what we do now.”
And everyone -- from President Bush on down -- knows how much America depends on oil. Bush has said that "America is addicted to oil."
And if the prediction of peak oil is true, America needs to start moving away from oil as an energy source as soon as possible.
That's why I drive an old Eagle Summit for my commute. Gets 36-40 mpg. Yeah, it's got absolutely no amenities (I paid more for my lawnmower than I paid for it), but it runs and saves me over a hundred bucks a month on my commute.
If the enviro-weenies would let us drill for oil, we wouldn't even need to rely on outside oil.
Oh, we don't have enough oil domestically for all our demand (although I do agree more domestic drilling would help), but we have coal out the wazoo and gasification is viable at these prices.
http://www.tomvalentine.com/html/karrick2.html
The process was perfected by Lewis C. Karrick, an oil shale technologist at the U.S. Bureau of Mines in the 1920s. LTC is a pyrolysis process that involves heating coal, shale, lignite, or any other carbonaceous material, including garbage) to about 800o F. in the absence of oxygen. Oil is thus distilled from the material, rather than burning as it would if oxygen were present. After treatment by the Karrick process, a ton of coal will yield up to a barrel of oil, 3000 cu. ft. of rich fuel gas, and 1500 lb. of solid smokeless char (semi-coke). The economics of the process are such that the oil is obtained for free!
The smokeless char is an excellent substitute for coal in utility boilers, and for coking coal in steel smelters. It yields more heat than raw coal, and it can be converted to water gas. That gas can be converted to oil by the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis-process. The coal gas produced by Karrick-LTC yields more BTUs than natural gas because it contains a greater amount of combined carbon, and there is less dilution of the combustion gases with water vapor. The phenolic wastes are used by the chemical industry as feedstock for working up into plastics, etc.. The process produces no pollutants other than carbon dioxide.
See links above for rest of the story! And it's in the United States!
And thanks to the anti-nuke crowd we are way too dependant on natural gas.
Nuclear power plants to give cheap energy needed for the coal gasification process.
What about all the tar-sands up in Canada? I heard that there is enough to run all of our energy needs for the next 100 years.
I'm not too worries about peak oil. I am worried that the rate of increase in demand will be far greater than any production increases. If that is the case, peak oil will be moot.
We have been in one for quite some time. Between a government that does not give a damn about the future of the country or a comprehensive energy policy that satisfies our energy needs, and the outright greed of the oil companies (are we down to just two now?) --- the industrial/government complex is doing quite a job on us. To say nothing of the cost of heating fuels...
Energy crisis -- hell yes.
1) They are already being exploited heavily, and
2) It's in Canada, whereas our coal is here, and we have more coal than any other country in the world. By a long shot.
"I think we are probably beyond the point where we can avoid the consequences of peaking. I think what we need to do now is to simply minimize the consequences of peaking. I don't think we have a prayer of avoiding the consequences of peaking."
I think you just like to say the word "peaking".
The law of supply and demand will continue to function, so long as the government lets it.
If the price of gasoline rises we will each make our individual decisions how to cope with it. Those decisions will add up to a far better set of outcomes than anything government action could provide.
Of course the paid off bastards in our House and Senate could give a flip. Ie: No drilling for oil, no incentive for R and D for Alternative fuels etc. Bought and paid for by the energy companies.
Gawd, I hope so. Otherwise all this gloom and doom handwringing and whining will be for naught. All it takes is one mullah farting to goose up the price of oil these days. Sheesh.
AND.....if they quit all the SPECIAL configurations for gasoline for different areas......gas would be a lot cheaper.....sheesh....it's like ordering a cup of coffee vs a double tall, soy mocha with half the chocolate....the second COSTS LOTS MORE cause it's a SPECIAL ORDER!
Energy crises, hell yes!
Yes and the congress has had 30 years to help prevent the on coming on slot of a depression. In their world of government pay all, they loose touch with the American people, and the struggles they must bare every day to put food on the table.
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