Exactly. Futures prices are by definition speculations on what might happen, given current circumstances. Its not 'manipulation' in the sense of collusion by speculators. These speculations are not irrational, they may in fact become real problems in supply, given all the circumstances that you mentioned. When current conditions change the outlook, the futures prices will change.
I think some discussion of the hedge funds and their plunging headlong into the futures market has something to do with the speculative pricing problem of crude. The real estate market has cooled and from the data I have seen institutional investors are bailing from residential mortgages and going into the even more risky futures market. We all bemoaned the OPEC cartel but we have an even nastier problem on our hands with the futures market. What is happening is foreign governments (Iran, Venezuela) are trying to influence our political system. My bet is Bush’s sleepwalking to 2008 will lead to a Democratic presidency and then the futures market will crash as these governments mysteriously start playing nice with the US again. We need to suspend the stupid and useless seasonal reformulation of gasoline, suspend the gas tax, like the US stock market create more stringent trading curbs in on commodities and the most shocking is keep an eye on the whole gasoline supply chain so that the scumbags in the energy distribution system don’t decide to raise the price to take up the slack of money saved by tax cuts. I for one distrust the international oil oligopolies as much as our Federal government. I see a lot of people here defend the energy business, my family was in the oil business so I know first hand it’s a dishonest business right up there with sports betting, boxing and payday loan companies.