Posted on 04/27/2006 6:37:36 PM PDT by blam
Fears that chicken farm's 'safe' bird flu virus could mutate
By David Sapsted
(Filed: 28/04/2006)
As ministry vets prepared to gas 35,000 chickens to curb an outbreak of bird flu, a prominent virologist warned the government not to be sanguine over this supposedly "safe" strain of the disease.
Prof Albert Osterhaus, a Dutch virologist, said that the H7 strain found in the flock just outside Dereham, Norfolk, had the potential to mutate into a form just as hazardous as the H5N1 strain, which has killed more than 100 people in Asia.
The farm in Hockering, Norfolk, where 35,000 chickens are to be slaughtered
He said he believed that an H7N7 outbreak in Holland in 2003 could have resulted in more fatalities had the Dutch authorities not acted swiftly to cull 30 million birds.
As it was, a Dutch vet, who was not given anti-viral drugs, died of the N7 strain after examining a flock of birds.
Dr Debby Reynolds, the chief veterinary officer, is waiting for the results of laboratory tests to learn how pathogenic the Norfolk strain of avian influenza is.
"This is most likely to be the H7 virus. It has a very low probability of infecting humans," she said in London. "Clearly, avian influenza and the H5N1 strain has generated a lot of concern and a lot of comment. There is no evidence that this is H5N1. This is most likely to be the H7 strain, which is potentially very serious for poultry."
However, Prof Osterhaus, who identified the virus behind the Sars disease, said from his research centre in Rotterdam: "You can't say the H7 virus is less dangerous than H5 until we know how pathogenic it has become. The H7 strain could become as dangerous as the H5N1 strain as it could mutate in a similar way. I do not know how highly pathogenic the strain on the Norfolk farm is. If you are lucky and it is a low pathogenic virus, culling the birds will suffice but if it is highly pathogenic any transfer of faeces on clothing, crates or even the wheels or vehicles will need to be traced.
"After the avian flu on the Dutch farm, we did screenings of wild birds and found the ancestors of the H7 virus in wild mallards. They carried a low pathogenic virus but when it got into flocks of poultry it was able to replicate and mutated quickly. It eventually became deadly. It does not mutate in wild birds so quickly because they do not live in such large flocks."
The chickens at Witford Lodge Farm in North Tuddenham, near Dereham, are expected to be gassed and then incinerated on the premises today.
Dennis Foreman, a director of Banham Poultry Ltd, which owns the farm, said that the number of chickens to have died from bird flu was "minimal".
"As a company we don't want this but, at the end of the day, it happened and we have got to deal with it professionally," he said. A one kilometre exclusion zone has been imposed around the farm, which is used to produce eggs for hatching elsewhere.
The infected chickens were brought from France in February. Dr Reynolds said there was a three-week incubation period of the virus and it was probable that the hens became infected after they arrived in Britain
You might want to check your state dept of health website.
They can give you all your local updates. Also the kids here are starting to bring information home from their schools about this.
I have a concern that the first h2h2h2h mutations will take place in Africa. Many rural people die of the odd disease all the time, without being seen by anyone except the village healer...
If the feared mutation(s) take place in rural Africa, it could get a foothold there, and move outward.
I'm in hurricane alley, Mobile. So, preparing for everything else is just an extension of my annual hurricane stockpiling which is very deep. I have my own supply of water, gasoline, electrical generators and stand alone propane and assorted utensils for cooking outside, etc.
After hurricane Katrina we were without electricity for seven days, when the Red Cross (from Nebraska) arrived handing out MRE's, we were on the back patio eating spaghetti, salad and garlic bread, lol. My neighbors lost all or parts of their roofs, not me. I have four dogs (click on my name to see them) and keep 6 months to a year of supplies on hand for them, also.
My plan is to be able to 'manage' a cat-5 hurricane during a Bird Flu pandemic while at war with Iran...and, maybe, a small asteroid impact.
I had a dream last night that a cat-4 hurricane was hitting Houston and as the eye crossed the city, terrorists decided to explode a dirty bomb in the eye and the hurricane dragged the radiation all across the eastern US. (I don't know what the life or lethality is of a dirty bomb so, another silly dream/idea?) I'm not prepared for a dirty bomb!
Are you burying your head in the chicken coop?
My plan is to totally isolate and when I'm convinced the H2H mutaion has occurred, I'm going 'underground' (so to speak).
You aren't the only one, by any means.
This is a good move if it gives people details in simples terms that can be understood by an eight year old. If they spell out that it may not happen but, if it does, you'd better be prepared.
I just don't know if I'm prepared to turn away hungry people...I'm a soft touch in this area.
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