I believe you're correct Rparr.
Nasa has become so risk averse that a single pessimist could derail any forward progress. While I don't encourage risk to the point of negligence, I do think that risk is unavoidable and the Shuttle Program has hit the point of refusal.
It's time for a redesign, rather than a patch that nobody will sign-off on, for fear of killing another 8 or 9 astronauts. Space travel is risky business, it's not for lawyers. We need innovation that can take the whole ST program to a new level. The shuttle was a great engineering marvel, but it's still late 70's - early 80's technology in many ways.
Already happening. Just not ready for several years.