[Kuksool]

{The way Taylor wins tough elections is he waits until the last six weeks and then dumps however much money into his campaign that he needs to win, and to date it's worked.}

This MO is standard for all GOP candidates. President Bush didn't begin his 2004 re-election campaign until the GOP convention in NYC. Also Richard Burr didn't start campaigning until October 2004.

I would attribute the low turnout in IN to the GOP hording all their resources until Labor Day weekend.

[AntiGuv]

Maybe my previous post was unclear, but what I mean is that Taylor waits until the last six weeks then dumps however much of his own money he thinks he needs to win. Then he just pays himself back with campaign funds raised afterward. That's why Taylor is reporting $806,974 raised but only $99,510 cash on hand. He hardly spent all that to win the primary (actually he didn't spend anything expressly to win the primary). What he did was pay back about $700,000 in secured loans to his campaigns.

IOW, do not be deceived by Taylor's cash numbers - there is no doubt he will have enough to compete, and more. What's more important to watch, moneywise, is the opponent's number, to get a sense of whether Shuler can survive the Taylor money infusion in the last six weeks.

PS. One of the many reasons why Taylor is extremely unlikely to drop out, BTW, is because, unlike TX-22 or OH-18, NC-11 may very well be more likely to flip parties if Taylor drops out, notwithstanding his ethics problems. The district is far more marginal than TX-22 and OH-18, and both the Taylor numbers and the Bush numbers are deceptive in terms of GOP strength. In most statewide races, NC-11 is either about 50/50 or the Dems win it. That is not at all the case with TX-22 or OH-18 in those states.

The district is more marginal to begin with, and the Asheville area is steadily drifting leftward, and a GOP replacement nominee would be at a distinct money disadvantage for at least some while.