I agree with your analysis, but I also think that Republicans have become too complacent. Republicans need to run the coming campaign as if they want to EXTEND and strengthen their control of Congress.
I think that part of the dissatisfaction that we have with Congress stems directly from the fact that there are still far too many Demopcrats there. Especially in the Senate.
The American people can't afford to have more than about 26 to 28 of these nincompoops in the Senate, considering that we have to endure a half dozen or so Republicans who can't seem to bring themselves to get with the program.
Yup, I am very unhappy with congress, but my Rep is doing a fine job.
That isnt true accross all 435 congressional districts. Many have 90% approval of their conservative or liberal congress critter. Only about fifty districts are even up for grabs even assuming a wave similar to 94. These are districts where there is no incumbent running, where the incumbent won with less than 55% of the vote two years ago, and where Kerry carried the district in 2004. In those districts, the ones that really count, approval is obviously not 70%. It's much less. All the Dems have to do is get a net gain of fifteen seats out of these fifty or so seats. Hard work but not not impossible. Very clearly could happen if every ass on FR who claims they are going to sit out the election if Bush or Congress doesnt do this or does do that, actually sits it out.
Politics is local and why I always laugh at nationwide polls on the Congress. For example, I think the two CA/NY/MA Senators are worthless but I don't live there and love my two -- Inhofe and Coburn. That makes me disatisfied with part of the Senate -- the DemocRAT side.