Posted on 5/10/2006, 8:14:06 PM by Dave Burns
The mainstream media and the chattering class have long hawked a theory that has caused serious confusion and a wide-spread misconception: that Republicans must appeal to Democrats to win the White House.
In order to ‘explain’ the election of Ronald Reagan, many attributed his success to his ability to attract crossover votes from Democrats. Therefore, this concept holds, it is essential that Republicans court the mythical "Reagan Democrats” in order to win the Presidency.
While this theory seems sound on its face, its continued acceptance has caused Republicans to lose their way - as well as the last two elections – because they don’t know the Dirty Little Secrets:
1. Democrats ALWAYS get the same turnout
2. The Republican vote VARIES GREATLY based on the turnout of conservative base voters
Democrats have gotten virtually identical turnouts in each of the last five presidential elections. The following chart dramatically illustrates this startling fact:
----------------------------------1980 1984 1988 1992 1996
Voting age population in millions 157.6 172.8 180.7 185.6 194.8
Democrat votes in millions-------35.5-- 37.5- 41.8- 44.8 --45.6
Percent of Democrat votes---------23% 22% 23% 24% 23%
Regardless of the Republican candidate or his message, Democrat performance is consistent from election to election.
It is the Republican message -- and its effect on the conservative base -- that determines Republican success in presidential elections.
The fundamental reason for the victories of Ronald Reagan (1980 and 1984) and George H.W. Bush (1988) is that they ran on a solid conservative agenda that was easily understood, and believed, by conservative base voters.
Both President Bush (1992) and Bob Dole (1996) lost because their campaigns lacked conservative credibility, resulting in fewer Republican votes as the conservative base abandoned them by either staying home or registering a protest vote for Ross Perot.
The mainstream media and the chattering class, knowing these Dirty Little Secrets, continue to use the "Reagan Democrat” argument to get Republicans off their game by insisting that Republicans must appeal to moderates to win. To do so is fatal.
Republicans must present an easily-understood, credible conservative agenda. When we do, we win; when we do not, we lose. Now that the secret is out we should heed this simple truth.
Mega dittos.
Reagan Democrat = CONSERVATIVE
Reagan Republican = CONSERVATIVE
Bush Democrat = Nonexistant
Bush Republican = Diminishing
The Reagan Dems are generally social conservatives, one thing the liberal GOP establishment forgets.
Liberal Republicans lose elections.
Ooh.. I left one out.
Pro-Choice Republicans = Democrats in Republican Clothing
Repeat after me "Aaaahhhnulld"
Repeat after me "Olympia"
Repeat after me "Specter"
Repeat after me "losers"
Both President Bush (1992) and Bob Dole (1996) lost because their campaigns lacked conservative credibility
Wrong.
There was no ross perot in 1980,84,88. There was in 92, 96
I guess history would prove that wrong.
If you think the gop is too liberal, then you need to leave the republicans and go sign up somewhere else.
Right on target, Pal.
The effort to include RINO's, Reagan Dims, and Hispanics has abandoned Conservatives.
Loosly described (IMO), conservatives are most famailies - regardless of color.
Blacks are feeling abandoned by Dims for Hispanics. Now is the time to make a huge effort to reach those families and bring them in as they also become more and more middle class.
Once again you are either woefully ignorant or deliberately misstating things printed in front of your very eyes.
The conservative "base" of the GOP is most of us here at FR; the 1 percenters are the extreme right wing who are once again trying to drive this party over a cliff by handing the goverment back over to the Democrats.
Phil Gramm was a Reagan Dem. when he first became president. :)
There were a large number of union voters who voted for Reagan in both 1980 and 1984. How else do you explain Reagan carrying liberal Democratic Massachusetts in 1980 and 1984, not to mention heavily union Pennsylvania?
Not sure about that. How many electoral votes were lost by republicans because of Perot?
Repeat after me. All you mentioned will be in office for as long as they desire or unless term limited.
That would mean WINNERS.
Stop blaming RINOs. To key to winning is to win additional seats from Democrats in Conservative districts. Guys like Rudy can only do so much running in NYC but it should be noted that he did raised a lot of money for conservative candidates down south.
All I need to do is look at the prescription drug policies, which no true conservative should support or the huge non-defense spending sprees of the GOP Congress since Bush came to power.
The Jacob Javits/Rockefeller wing of the GOP is what we have running the RNC these days. Conservatives are once again on the outside looking in.
I've suspected for quite some time now that conservative voters are the ones who really hold the key to national elections. It's good to see that my belief verified. It also explains why the party poohbahs hate our guts so much.
You mad at everything, hate everyone, Whine all the Timers are NOT the base. You are merely a fantatical, feverish fringe who demand EVERYONE do ONLY what YOU want done and NOTHING that you don't want. You merely wander form issue to issue looking for the next thing to squeal like pigs about.
You merely SCREAM you are the base in the vain hopes someone will take you seriously. That sort of 100%erism makes you all politically irrelevant.
Your "my way or the high way" mindset simply alienates everyone who MIGHT otherwise listen to your view point and reduces your political pull to that of the small fringe of always angry types that haunt all political parties.
No matter what anyone does, the Perpetual Whiners bitch and moan and cry. Spare me the fraudlent Reagan claims. I was there. You all spent most of the 1980s bitching at Reagan for talking to the Commies and raising taxes. Why bother doing anything FOR you when all you people ever do is BITCH about it?
My opinion is
The effort to include the buchanan ludites, single issue border closers, and rino bashers has abandoned normal people Conservatives.
It is time we forget about these nuts and bring back the people who find republicans indulging these moonbats, repulsive.
But for your belief that it is conservatives who don't always turn out one has to believe that Conservatives came out to vote for Richard Nixon in 1968 and 1972 but didn't turn out for Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Did the conservatives come out to Vote for Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996?
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