Birds Return To Europe Without Virus (Avian Flu)

International Herald Tribune ^ | 10 May 2006 | Staff

[Lurker]

Birds return to Europe without virus.

The flocks of migratory birds that winged their way south to Africa last autumn and then back over Europe in recent weeks did not carry the H5N1 bird flu virus or spread it during their annual journey, scientists have concluded, defying health officials' dire predictions.

International health officials had feared that the disease was likely to spread to Africa during the winter migration and return to Europe with a vengeance during the reverse migration this spring. That has not happened a significant finding for Europe, because it is far easier to monitor a virus that exists domestically on farms, but not in nature.

In thousands of samples collected in Africa this winter, H5N1 was not detected in a single wild bird, officials and scientists said.

In Europe, there have been only a handful of cases detected in wild birds since April 1, at the height of the northward migration. The number of cases in Europe has decreased so dramatically compared to February, when dozens of new cases were found daily, that experts believe the northward spring migration played no role.

[Lurker]

This is from the DHS Daily Report. It says the source is the International Herald Tribune, but the link goes to the NY Times. I got it from the DIR, not the times.

I thought I'd post it for the 'we're all going to die' crowd.

L

[TomGuy]

did not carry the H5N1 bird flu virus or spread it

It is mostly being spread by the Administration and Hollywood, which has a movie of the week and the program Numb3rs both having bird flu as the topic this week.

[Dallas59]

This information does not serve the Blameamericabushesfaultcapitalismimperialismglobalwarmingsavethewhalessavethebeetlessavetheanimalsingeneralnowariniraqenowariniranuroweenies...*takes breath*...we'reallgonnadiebecauseofoilandcorporateprofitsandsuvssocialistdemocrat group.

[TomGuy]

On November 1, 2005, the day the President announced the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza, the Administration also submitted a $7.1 billion emergency budget supplemental request to Congress for pandemic preparedness funding.
source: The White House

$7.1 billion for a maybe???? That's a heck of allot of money when there still is little evidence that bird flu actually transmutates into humans.

[Dallas59]

$7.1 billion for a maybe???? That's a heck of allot of money when there still is little evidence that bird flu actually transmutates into humans.

[TomGuy]

Uhhhh, that isn't a bird. Maybe you got confused with that adage, when pigs fly, and that created your misconception.

Chirp! Chirp!

[ItsForTheChildren]

What happens in Africa stays in Africa.

[MedicalMess]

OH MY GOD! The bird flu has mutated into swine flu!

[Lurker]

Don't get me wrong Tom. I'm in the Emergency Preparedness business. I think it's great to be prepared. I think having a plan and taking reasonable precautions is just basic common sense.

But this bird flu thing is getting silly IMO. It's a disease that to date has killed less than 300 people on the entire planet. That's 300 out of a population of nearly 7 billion people. Contrast that with the fact, fact mind you, that regular flus kill over 30,000 Americans every year.

Are there things we should be doing to mitigate and prepare for the extremely remote possibility this thing makes the jump not just from birds to humans, but from human to human (while still retaining it's current lethality; something which is by no means certain btw)? Sure there are.

A vibrant domestic vaccine producing infrastructure might be nice for one. I'd make that a top 3 thing priority if it were up to me.

But one has to do some serious risk and hazard analysis here. All the information I've seen and experts we've consulted say that the probability of this disease mutating into a form that's passed easily from human to human while still retaining it's full lethality is remote in the extreme.

I'm convinced there are some folks who want us to build spare hospitals or something and then just leave them waiting empty except for staffing on the off chance we'll need them. That would be a ridiculous waste of very limited resources.

So I just thought I'd post some good news on the subject.

L

[MPJackal]

Somewhat selective reading on your part. From your article, just a bit farther down:

"Still, this means that the cycle could start again this summer, if the virus — which can live for long periods in water — has persisted in those breeding areas. Many bird specialists contend that a small number of wetland lakes in Central Asia and Russia may harbor the virus all the time, serving as the origin of European and Central Asian infections.

Scientists still do not know which birds carry the virus silently and which die from it quickly, or how it typically spreads from wild bird to wild bird, or between wild birds and poultry.

Farm-based outbreaks of bird flu still occur constantly in a number of countries, although not in Europe. Ivory Coast had its first outbreak of bird flu, on a farm, last week.

And from the WHO 3 days ago:

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION
Avian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 11
8 May 2006

The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed the country’s 33rd case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case, which was fatal, occurred in a 30-year-old man from Greater Jakarta. He developed symptoms on 17 April, was hospitalized on 21 April, and died on 26 April.

An investigation to determine the source of his infection is continuing. He lived in close proximity to pens where animals, including poultry, were kept.

Of the 33 laboratory-confirmed cases in Indonesia, 25 have been fatal.

I hope it does not ever happen and part of the reason it has been contained so far is due in large part to aggressive action taken in areas where infected birds have been found. If officials in those areas took the attitude of those that think this flu is nothing, we would already be in the middle of a crisis.

[Lurker]

If officials in those areas took the attitude of those that think this flu is nothing,

When you find one of those officials who think this is 'nothing' you let me know, because I haven't met any who think it's 'nothing'.

L

[MPJackal]

We went through this the other night. I don't know what you do nor how well you do it. I do know that you think this is a non issue. So do many of the others on this thread. So if you really are in OEM, I have concerns about how much effort you put into something you do not believe is a concern. Spare me the "I give 100% on everything no matter my personal opinion". Consciously or sub consciously you would me masterminding the response to the next great alien invasion or planning for the next quake to alter the course on the Mississippi that is due sometime between now and...............50,000 years from now.

How is it that you can be so damn sure a disaster like that will occur, but can't believe in one that really could be just around the corner and kills 55% of those infected.