I have heard that argument before (from the Freakonomics folks, IIRC). But I don't buy it. If it were true, then the places with higher abortion rates would have had greater drops in crime, and all of the statistics I've seen show that not to be the case.
Instead, I believe the drop in crime in the U.S. is based on better policing and more liberal (from a Jeffersonian perspective) concealed carry laws. Ironically, some of the drop in crime was also due to Bill Clinton, whose draconian gun control policies convinced a lot of people who otherwise were apathetic to the gun control debate to go out and buy a firearm for their home. Since the inverse correlation of crime to gun ownership is well established (Kleck, Lott, etc) I think that improved gun ownership had more of a positive effect than abortion ever did, if abortion had any positive effect at all.
Problem is, killing everybody is a pretty big crime in itself and once it starts well it just doesn't seem to stop.
Oh well, waddya gonna do. It's late and I'm going to bed. I'm going to kiss my son once after I make sure he's safe in his bed. When I get to my room I'm going to get down on my knees and thank God for making me a husband and a dad even though I was poor when it happend. Then I'm going to pray for the strength to keep me from going out, hunting the monster who wrote this vile bit of trash down, and.... giving him a piece of my mind.
L
You see the thing is, it is irrelevant what you believe. The only thing that is relevant in the situation is the reality.
the most important factor in the drop in crime was the increased number of prisons and longer prison terms.
There is zero evidence that an increase in the number of people owning weapons lowered crime rates. That is pure conjecture on your part. I could easily say I think it is because more people believe in Santa Claus.
There are some questionable statistics that seem to indicate that states which allowed abortion earlier than RvW actually saw a drop in crime earlier than nationally.
Your comment about higher abortion rates leading to a greater drop in crime has no basis in logic unless you can eliminate other mitigating factors such as poverty levels.
That much said, I will add some conjecture which is that more religion in people's lives will a) reduce crime and b) reduce abortion.
I saw John Stossel interview the guy who did teh study, and from what he said the the places with higher abortion rates DID have greater drops in crime.
He also said, and after seeing the interview I tend to beleive him, that this had nothing to do with supporting or opposing abortion. He was trying to explain what factors entered into the drop in crime, and abortion was one.
The crime rate is inversely relational to the unemployment rate. After all, when people have jobs, they can buy their own cars, milk, big screen tv's, drugs, and what have you, so there is little incentive to steal. People who are working have little time to commite crime.
Technology has developed exponentially since Roe was passed, giving police far greater ability to diagnose a crime and prosecutors better means to obtain a conviction. There are three CSI shows on TV, plus Crossing Jordan, Unsolved Mysteries and many other true-crime offerings that point to a greater interest in, and presence of, the technology of crime-solving. DNA technology is also helping to unravel the cases of many who were wrongly convicted.
It's a win-win; sadly, the media is far behind the curve of actual progress, in favor of flacking "progressive" politics of bygone eras, usually the 60s.