Russia quadruples Belarus gas prices; crisis fears grow

The Irish Times ^ | Tue, Apr 04, 06 | Chris Stephen

[x5452]

The Ukraine constitution would be after the fact, Russia has every right within international law to forclose if Ukraine renegs. They have rock solid defense in court, as well as in terms of fire power.

[A. Pole]

Freedom for other human beings is something we silly westerners actually desire for its own sake.

You regurgitate slogans. Most of people both in the West and East prefer money, comfort and security over freedom.

[ExSES]

Most of people both in the West and East prefer money, comfort and security over freedom.

That is about as succinct an observation as can be stated!

Reminds me of my long-departed Father-in-Law's distillation of human economic history: "The strong take it away from the weak and the smart take it away from the strong"....

[JasonC]

Won't need to. Ukraine will have its own nukes.

[JasonC]

Actually, most people in "the east" seem to prefer drinking themselves to death by age 60 and never having children, because their future is so sunny and bright. But expect when they give nutjobs nuclear weapons, we love 'em just the same. When they do, though, we are implacable.

[JasonC]

err, except. Fingers always type that one the other way...

[Atlantic Bridge]

It seems to me you are advocating price fixing, in favor of Lukashenko.

You are wrong in this point. I do not advocate price fixing and it makes sense that the eastern Europeans will pay market prices. It is in the interest of us all that they reduce their massive wasting of energy and this will only happen if the prices are rising. The problem is, that the transition to the market realities has to be made smooth without leaving them out in the cold winter. They need -let's say- 4 or 5 years to change their economies and technical requirements to market prices. Since Russia is the most important inheritor of the USSR they have to take over this responsibility. Not for ever but for a while. Ukraine and Belarus were also parts of the USSR. So they have a right to a passable solution.

With Lukashenko out of the way the Belarussian people will prosper and choose a leader of THEIR design, not the one that best pleases Poland or the EU.

Agreed. It is not Poland, Putin or the EU who has the right ro choose the leader of Belarus. It will be the Belorussian people.

The German situation seems quite different and mostly unrelated.

Things have to be seen in an overview. Gasprom has a strategy. The most important part of this strategy is Germany since there comes the money from. The "new" Europeans play only a underpart in this play. The pay too little to be important. Therefore the only one who has the possibility to change something to the better in the recent gas crisis is Mrs. Merkel and her gouvernment. That are simply the facts.

[x5452]

Ha, the Ukraine couldn't build a full nuke if it wanted to, and even if they could the Russians would have the dirt on it before one rolled off the line.

You should really lookup on the Ukraine military prowess.

80 years of someone else looking after your ass doesn't exactly becme the mother of invention.

[x5452]

The transition was never smooth.

I personally know folks who lost everything they had when the ruble went from 5 to a dollar to 40 to a dollar.

You don't like price fixing and don't like Lukashenko, I don't see a reason to cry.

As for Germany I was under the impresson there's a new pipe line going strait to them, they've got the best energy garuntee in the EU, I don't know much more than that.

[spanalot]

Are you saying that the Russians do not now own the pipeline is Belorus?



and what "market " price are you talking about? Russia pays only $50 for it in Kazakstan and when Ukraine did the same thing, Putin shut off the valve.

[spanalot]

"which will be returned to Russia if you negate the treaty"

What about the treaty that obligated Russia to allow the transport of the $50 gas that Ukraine bought from Turkmanistan.

[spanalot]

"the Russians would have the dirt on it before one rolled off the line. "

Then what happened to your invincible Russian army in Afghanistan?

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

Putin knows the EU wont do anyhting...hell, the EU doesnt even have a army

[Romanov]

That would be SOVIET army. How many Ukrainians were involved in the decision to invade Afghanistan? You don't want that secret out do you?

Or, what the heck. Straight from the declassified archives the following Ukrainians were on the Politburo and made the decision to invade:

Brezhnev: a lad from Dnepropetrovsk, UKRAINE.

Chernenko: while born in Russia, his father was Ukrainian - making him UKRAINIAN.

Kirilenko: Ukrainian and prior to joining the Politburo was the Ukrainian Communist Party boss in Dnepropetrovsk, UKRAINE.

Gromyko - Belarus/Ukrainian

That's a lot of oppressed Ukrainians making those weighty decisions...

Personally, I just call them Soviets, but since you continue to spin things based on ethnicities I thought I'd point the Ukrainians running the show out to you.

[A. Pole]

Then what happened to your invincible Russian army in Afghanistan?

How do you explain the fact that the same Soviet (as much Russian as Ukrainian) army could not defeat tiny Finland in 1940 but was able to stand ground against German army one/two years later?

History is full of paradoxes and the failed Finnish campaign could be responsible for derailing Hitler's calculations.

[Atlantic Bridge]

The transition was never smooth. I personally know folks who lost everything they had when the ruble went from 5 to a dollar to 40 to a dollar.

There are always reasons to make it better than in the past.

As for Germany I was under the impresson there's a new pipe line going strait to them, they've got the best energy garuntee in the EU, I don't know much more than that.

Well - for us Germans it does not matter through which pipe our gas is coming. The pipes through Ukraine and Poland were also sure for us since we are the most important and reliable clients of Russia. The Russians can not afford to stop the deliveries to Ukraine and Poland since they would stop the deliveries to us then. It is more a problem of Russia if the Ukrainians are siphoning (stealing) gas since they have to pump more gas than they sell then. The Poles are for sure reliable clients (in difference to their neighbours in the east) and steal no gas, but they also have enough reasons to mistrust Russia. We all know that there is no warm friendship between Moscow and Warsaw. Well I think that Gasprom theoretically could deliver cheaper gas to Germany when the "black holes" in Belarus and Ukraine are closed. In reality we Germans will pay even more. Have you ever heared that energy prices were lowered??! The offshore-pipeline will cost millions and bazillions more than a conventional one. This has also be paid by German consumers.

Therefore we Germans have no benefit from the this offshore-pipeline. The security of our energy deliveries from Russia was never in danger since we are the ones to pay good cold cash for it. This pipeline makes only sense to Russia and Gasprom because they will soon be able to shut the lines through Ukraine and Belarus. Furthermore they can press the Poles to be more submissive to the Kremlin. Nothing of this is in our (German) interest. There is only one German who will cash in because of this new pipeline:

This guy is a traitor and Judas who sold his own people.

[A. Pole]

They need -let's say- 4 or 5 years to change their economies and technical requirements to market prices. Since Russia is the most important inheritor of the USSR they have to take over this responsibility. Not for ever but for a while.

Soviet Union ended FIFTEEN years ago.

[A. Pole]

The Russians can not afford to stop the deliveries to Ukraine and Poland since they would stop the deliveries to us then. It is more a problem of Russia if the Ukrainians are siphoning (stealing) gas since they have to pump more gas than they sell then. [...] Therefore we Germans have no benefit from the this offshore-pipeline.

At the same time the pipeline to China is being built.

[GarySpFc]

Are you saying that the Russians do not now own the pipeline is Belorus?

No, neither Gazprom or the Russians own the pipeline.

and what "market " price are you talking about? Russia pays only $50 for it in Kazakstan and when Ukraine did the same thing, Putin shut off the valve.

Firstly, $50 was the old subsidized price CIS coutrys paid. Previously, Ukraine bought gas from both Turkmenistan and Russia at a price of $50 per 1,000 cubic metres. However, that does not cover production cost, and does not include transit. To expect gas for $50 today would be INSANE.
Secondly, Turkestan has decided to raise the price of gas to the it sells to $85 in the second half of 2006, which will increase the Ukraine's price.
Thirdly, Gazprom sells it's gas to the Ukraine for $230, but also allows gas from Turkestan to be transported and mixed in giving a delivered price to the Ukraine of $95 total.
Finally, you don't have a clue what you are discussing.

[Grzegorz 246]

They definitely want to take over the pipeline, but I think that a more important question is If Kremlin still wants to support Luka (then even with the "world prices" they will find one or another way to subsidize him) or not - then they will probably try to replace Luka with their own "democrats".