[Strategerist]

Most likely a Pinatubo scale eruption is all we should expect, at most.

It's exceedingly unlikely to even remotely approach Pinatubo, or even Mt. St. Helens...Merapi erupts a lot, in fairly small eruptions; the only reason it's so dangerous is the immediate vicinity is so densely populatated.

I wouldn't expect the slightest global climate effects at all.

[NormsRevenge]

You see the Ecuador volcano acting up? Tungurahua

Ecuador Volcano Shows Signs of Activity

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1631831/posts

[Atlantic Bridge]

It's exceedingly unlikely to even remotely approach Pinatubo, or even Mt. St. Helens...Merapi erupts a lot, in fairly small eruptions; the only reason it's so dangerous is the immediate vicinity is so densely populatated. I wouldn't expect the slightest global climate effects at all.

Yep! This is the point. There are simply too many people in the danger zone of this volcano. It doesn't matter that its eruptions are more moderate than Pinatubo, Krakatau or Tambora for those who live on the slopes of Merapi. The "moderate" powers of nature are still dangerous enough to kill them all.

[mewzilla]

It's Pelean not Plinean, right? Something to do with the dome collapsing sideways a bit, but not going up like or sideways like St. Helens?

[SauronOfMordor]

Merapi erupts a lot, in fairly small eruptions; the only reason it's so dangerous is the immediate vicinity is so densely populatated.

And it's so densely populated because the soil is so fertile because of all the volcanic ash acting as fertilizer