Posted on 05/27/2006 7:10:31 PM PDT by Graybeard58
HOUSTON -- The 14-hour traffic jams and gasoline shortages that accompanied last year's killer hurricanes led to improved evacuation plans for some hurricane-prone states. But that does not mean the next evacuation will go smoothly.
On the eve of hurricane season, emergency experts are worried that many large metropolitan areas simply cannot clear out quickly without problems, even those cites that are used to evacuating for storms.
"I'm happy to see they're pulling out all the stops this time," said Brian Wolshon, a Louisiana State University engineer.
But he asks: "Is it possible to smoothly evacuate? I don't see it. It just overwhelms what we can realistically expect to provide."
Communities in Texas and Louisiana have rewritten their evacuation plans to add fleets of buses, improve traffic management and ensure a large supply of gas.
Still, when the winds begin to howl, Wolshon and other experts worry that any plans -- no matter how specific -- will not be enough.
Hurricane Katrina killed more than 1,500 people, many of whom could not leave because they did not have cars, or who did not want to endure snarled traffic. A few weeks later, 3 million people fled Hurricane Rita when it appeared the storm would slam into Galveston and swamp Houston.
The storm turned east, sparing the most populated areas, but 137 people died in the evacuation, many succumbing to heat exhaustion along choked highways.
Evacuation nightmares are nothing new in Florida, where 1.3 million people were told to leave the state's Atlantic coast when Hurricane Floyd threatened in 1999, backing up traffic 30 miles or more.
The problem has worsened in recent years as coastal populations have grown.
Florida authorities now plan to advise residents in areas vulnerable to storm surges to go to nearby higher ground, to a friend or relative's home, or to a shelter. Those who are not in storm surge zones or mobile homes should just hunker down, as most newer homes can withstand hurricane-force winds.
Emergency managers also stress that each family needs a plan for evacuations. Larry Gispert, emergency management director for Hillsborough County, marveled that a study of people who hit the road before Floyd indicated that most did not know where they were going.
"How dumb is that?" he said.
The new evacuation plans in Louisiana and Texas acknowledge that millions will flee when only thousands are in danger. So planners have to expect more traffic and encourage many scared residents to stay home.
After Floyd, officials in Florida developed "contraflow" plans for six major highways in which traffic runs in one direction to accommodate a mass evacuation.
Texas has adopted a similar practice and now plans to open contraflow lanes 45 hours before tropical storm-force winds hit the coast. Last year, Houston waited several days before turning the highway lanes around, bearing much of the blame for clogged roads.
Texas authorities had forecast about 700,000 evacuees in a hurricane. During Rita, nearly three times that number packed up and fled.
"It's a simple equation: if you have too much demand, you're going to overwhelm your capacity," Wolshon said. "There's a limit, and we're stretching it about as far as we can go using contraflow."
During a hurricane drill in Texas last month, emergency officials planned for everyone to leave and for some families to evacuate in two or more cars.
"We did behavioral studies and found that people are not going to leave $30,000 cars behind," said Jack Colley, chief of the governor's Division of Emergency Management.
To improve evacuations, Texas focused on fuel shortages and evacuating the elderly and those without cars. Plans are now in place to put external, rubber fuel bladders at gas stations to double fuel capacity. Officials say they have also lined up trains, each capable of transporting 1,600 people.
New Orleans is adopting a similar reliance on trains and buses. In Georgia, many coastal counties are also doubling up on the number of buses on standby.
Natalie O'Neill, mayor of the coastal Texas suburb Taylor Lake Village, spent 18 hours driving 150 miles from Houston to Austin during the Rita evacuation. In a hurricane, the 4,000 residents in her town are the first to leave.
Whatever happens, she just wants it to be quicker next time.
"It can't possibly be any worse," O'Neill said. "As long as I'm not sitting in traffic again all day, it will be better."
L
If everyone leaves at once, it will suck. No surprise there. If everyone tries to take the exact same roads, never looking into the possiblitiy of potential alternate routes, it will suck. In other words, it will suck.
The problems in Texas were manifold. Two unexpected ones were people who had not been asked to evacuate, eavacuating. Another was something like 100% of the folks who fled took every car in the household. Instead of Ma, Pa, Jr. and Little Suzie all in the family Suburban, Ma took the Subarban, Pa his Ford F-150, Jr. his Ford Ranger, and Little Suzie her Kia Spectra. Four vehciles when one, the Suburban, would have evacuated the whole family.
A good lesson to everyone in the area - Study the map. Get to know all the alternate routes in your area. I've just relocated to south Austin from California in January and I've learned many of the back roads around here.
Evacuating hundred of thousand of people for a hurricane that last several hours is stupid. Cities need hurricane shelters.
Then the help must come from OUTSIDE, from the areas that are not affected.
Also a disaster can affect communication infrastructure so the policeman who is "heroic" enough to abandon his small children or disabled mother and came to work might not contact anybody. In N.O. they did not have portable radios.
Undoubtedly, the mayor evacuated on the Thursday (9/22/2005) before Hurricane Rita made landfall early the following Saturday (9/24/2005). The traffic leaving the Houston area was insane on that Thursday.
Twenty four hours made all the difference in the evacuation for Rita. We evacuated only 24 hours earlier on Wednesday morning and made the 265-mile trip from the Texas coast (actually near Taylor Lake Village) to Dallas in 6.5 hours. Our goal for future evacuations will be an early departure lead time of 36 hours.
Makes me glad I live in "the sticks".
I guess that makes me an expert because I figured this out a long time ago
Run from the water, hide from the wind.
If you are in an area that might flood - you must leave.
If you are not in danger of flooding - evaluate the wind danger. If your home cannot survive the wind or if you have nearby trees or other objects that the wind could bring crashing down on your home - then you should seek safe shelter nearby. This could be churches, schools, shopping malls, etc.
If you're not in one of these situations - stay home.
Prepare now to make sure you have supplies & provisions packed and ready to go. Make sure you have materials to secure your property. See Ready.GOV for other preparedness information.
They'd double them.
L
It's available at no cost and as a bonus you get some CEUs for it.
L
My wife and I left Picayune, MS, towing a fifth wheel trailer about a day and a half before Katrina hit. We had mapped out a plan in advance and that plan used secondary roads and not major roads such as I-59 and US 49 which would ideally have been our escape route. Those major thoroughfares become parking lots in a pinch.
The route that we chose added some 35 miles and about an hour of travel time but we arrived at an RV park just east of Vicksburg safe and sound and everything turned out well. My advice to anyone so affected and who can do so, is get out early and stay off the main thoroughfares.
I'm sure that someone is just chomping at the bit to point out that Picayune is not a major city and, indeed, it is not. It is, however, directly in the evacuation path of New Orleans, LA.
My advice? Plan ahead, maintain an ample pantry, extra fuel and don't get yourselves into a panic situation. If you do this, you'll likely be OK.
I've been doing an 'informal' poll since last September when Rita hit. I can now verify that, should a Cat3+ hurricane draw a bead on the Texas coast this year:
Everyone who evacuated last year will now stay home, and...
Everyone who stayed home last year will now evacuate.
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