How? Unless Congress adapts the Senate Bill without change, it is never going to be a national issue.
"It is worth noting that the three of the four Dems up for reelection this year voted against the bill."
Except 2 of those 3 (Byrd and Nelson) aren't even remotely vulnerable to losing their re-election. And Dorgan is from North Dakota, which is very conservative state despite electing a Democrat for the Senate (kind of like Maine electing a Republican Senator). And 3 Republicans who voted for it are also up for re-election including Dewine of OH who is very vulnerable.
"The House bill was passed with a sizeable majority including many Dems."
The bill passed with a 55% majority and 82% percent of Democrats voted against it.
If no bill comes out, it will still be an issue in many Congressional campaigns. Those who voted against the House bill, Reps and Dems, will have to defend their decisions. Likewise, so will the Senators who are running for reelection. And challengers will be asked for their position. It is already a national issue. The illegals' demonstrating in the streets of many of our major cities has changed the dynamic. IMO, the Senate wants a bill far more than the House, hence they will be more willing to compromise.
Except 2 of those 3 (Byrd and Nelson) aren't even remotely vulnerable to losing their re-election. And Dorgan is from North Dakota, which is very conservative state despite electing a Democrat for the Senate (kind of like Maine electing a Republican Senator). And 3 Republicans who voted for it are also up for re-election including Dewine of OH who is very vulnerable.
Ben Nelson isn't necessarily a sure thing. Stabenow realizes that in a state like Michigan with high unemployment, support of guest worker programs is a liability. Dorgan always tries to appear more conservative around election time. He also has some Abramoff connections.
DeWine may well regret his vote. I would also note that more Reps who are up for election voted against the bill.
The bill passed with a 55% majority and 82% percent of Democrats voted against it.
Getting almost 20% of the Democrats to vote for it with the felony language in it is significant. Also please note that 17 Reps voted against it, including Hayworth and the Cuban-American Reps from FL, presumably because of that language. The Senate bill won't fly in the House.