| Gore and Giuliani: The Ones to Watch in 2008 |  |
FrontPageMagazine.com | June 7, 2006
Posted on 06/07/2006 5:26:05 AM PDT by areafiftyone
The shape of the 2008 presidential sweepstakes is gradually becoming clearer through the fog of war. There is a surprising and artful symmetry in how each party’s contest is shaping up.Both parties have clear front-runners — Hillary Clinton and John McCain — around whom the race will be formed. In each party there is a looming presence whose entry into the race could change it completely. And there is an assortment of ideologically more extreme contenders who are trying to break through and challenge the front-runner.
In the Republican primaries, McCain runs far ahead of all other contenders. But the specter of Rudy Giuliani hangs over the nominating process. If Rudy runs, his challenge will most directly affect McCain, who then would have to battle for the moderate side of the party. But if Rudy stays out, the contest will polarize around the Arizona senator.
But since McCain is to the left of the GOP — despite his efforts to court the Right — he will inevitably face a runoff in the primaries against the great right hope, a title for which Virginia Sen. George Allen, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist are competing. Gov. George Pataki of New York and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska are considering runs for the nomination, but both would have to battle McCain for the center-Left and neither will be able to get much traction in the face of McCain’s appeal.
The problem is that McCain probably can’t win the Republican nomination. He is too independent, original, creative, and populist for his party. A party that prides itself on regularity and corporate grayness won’t take a chance on a maverick who led the fight for tough corporate governance, against big tobacco, for campaign-finance reform, against CIA torture, and for tough environmental regulation. So the challenger who emerges from the right-wing mini-primary will probably be the nominee.
Interestingly, there is no tall mountain to climb for a challenger in the right-wing alternative-to-McCain derby. Allen is running a narrow first, with Romney slightly behind him. Frist will probably die early from diseases he caught running the Senate. Huckabee, a tremendous speaker with a clerical past and a galvanizing presence, could be a formidable late starter. But none of these candidates is getting many votes, and a good showing by anyone in a debate or a straw poll could begin a miniature landslide. My own bet is that Huckabee is the strongest of the field because of his platform skills. (Disclosure: he’s a former client of mine.)
On the Democratic side, Hillary is under increasing fire for her failure to move to the left on the Iraq war. In a massive miscalculation, she aimed at winning the general election by backing the war before she got the nomination, which will be decided by antiwar Democratic primary voters. Her error opens the door for Al Gore, the figure who is the equivalent of Giuliani’s looming presence over the Republican primary.
If Gore runs, it will be a dogfight to the end between these two veterans of the Clinton administration. Gore, a virgin on the war and the certified owner of the climate/energy/gas price issue, would give Hillary a very tough contest.
If Gore runs, there is no room for anybody else. If Gore doesn’t go for it, Sen. John Kerry and former Sen. John Edwards will assert their claims, but I think they will be easily pushed aside by Hillary. Both backed the war and are seen as losers in the wake of 2004’s disaster.
But that does not mean Hillary will have a cakewalk even if Gore stays out. Voters are antsy about nominating Hillary, worried that she is a polarizing figure who can’t win. That could open the way for a crop of new Democratic contenders like former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
But my bet is that if Gore doesn’t run, Hillary wins the nomination.
As to the election, whoever wins the Democratic nomination in 2008 will get elected president unless:
(A) Either McCain, Giuliani or — my old favorite — Condoleezza Rice gets the GOP nomination, or
(B) McCain runs as an independent, a race he could win, thereby reshaping American politics forever.
Judas McCain will not win as an Independent. He won't win period.
((((PING))))
He's like a Volcano - you never know when he's going to erupt.
LOL. You lost me here, Dick.
I really loved the British Virgin Islands. I wonder what real estate prices are like there.
Of all the plausible dem candidates, Hillary KKKlinton is the only one who has the organization and infrastructure to kill people who get in her way; that makes up for a lot of inadequacies. If you have to bet on who runs as a dem, put your money on Hillary. Second choice if Hillary gets run over or Satan collects her or something prior to the election would be Mark Warner of Virginia.
Oh man. I read on. Geez, Dick, can you crawl any further up McCain's butt?
lol! I don't think Hillary has a chance.
I see Dick has been hitting the toe sucking sauce again.
Hahaha. At least you have better sense than the liberals who all run away to freezing Canada.
If Giuliani Runs against McCain - McCAIN IS TOAST! Al Gore is the #1 with the Leftist Democrats right now but if he doesn't run then they want Clark more than Kerry or Edwards.
If Guiliani runs against McCain, I'm going to skip the presidential line of the November ballot. Hillary! or whoever can have it.
Neither Guiliani nor McCain are qualified to run for President as Republicans.
In 1991 David Shaw (D.E. Shaw) a Wall Street wizard and leftie, was looking for a Dem to back for POTUS. He interviewed the Clintons and decided they were electable. He introduced them to Wall Street money and the rest is history.
In 2000 he met with Gore, declared him 'scary' and refused to support or endorse him. Wall Street followed his lead. You can't win without the Street.
This is true.
If Guiliani runs against McCain, I'm going to skip the presidential line of the November ballot. Hillary! or whoever can have it.
______________________________________________________
Little Ray,
It's better to keep one's mouth closed and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt
McCain will be lucky to win one primary. Has he ever done well in NH? He could maybe win the Iowa caucus, but he won't win a single southern or western state. Hell, even in blue states, the blue ppl will be voting in the other primary. The red ppl will vote red. McCain has NO chance at all.
I mean, as long as he's gettin' paid, might as well, I guess. It's not as if he has to ever get anything right.
Yo Dick - STFU.
[Morris' predictions are almost as bad as Larry 'Karnac' Sabato.]
I was thinking New Zealand myself. I can descend to Middle Earth and never leave.
Yeah, Dick's getting paid to "make" the news. Funny thing though, he used to be considered a political guru. At least we sheeple have finally opened our eyes.
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