Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Smokin' Joe

128 deaths since 2003. That's just terrible. What are we gonna do? It might get here by the year 3000...


8 posted on 06/08/2006 11:30:50 AM PDT by Mrs. Darla Ruth Schwerin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: Mrs. Darla Ruth Schwerin
Granted, not that many people have apparently succumbed to the disease.

If you look at the mortality rate for confirmed cases, though, it is running at over 50%.

If these things moved in a linear progression, it could take a long time to get here, provided of course, that the disease becomes readily transmissable from human to human, which so far, it has not.

Unfortunately, readily transmissable diseases do not expand linearly, but geometrically.

It is the difference between starting work for a penny a day and getting paid another penny per day each successive day, or starting work for a penny per day and doubling your wages each day.

At the end of 30 days, one person is making 30 cents per day, the other is making $5,368,709.12 (just on day 30).

The cumulative effect, similarly, is that one has made a total of $3.60, the other $10,737,418.23

Imagine for a moment each penny is a person with a lethal disease, and realize that with no constraints, a pandemic could be even more efficient, especially spread simultaneously to multiple areas through the modern convenience of air travel.

For now, thankfully, there is only cause for concern, reason to watch the progress of the disease, and try to develop the means to stop it before it becomes a threat--or contain it if it does.

If it does develop the ability to be readily transmitted from one human to another, there will not be time to do anything about it in terms of developing vaccines or pharmacologies to combat it, and actually, there would not be time to ramp up production of existing drugs to have enough to go around.

Certainly, this is not cause for panic, (there will be plenty of time for that later, if appropriate--it is never too late to panic), only concern.

As migratory birds have already spread this disease from Indochina through southern Asia and into Africa and Europe, monitoring the progress of the disease among migratory birds is a rational and prudent means of identifying the spread of the virus in the wild, both for the protection of domestic fowl and humans as well.

9 posted on 06/08/2006 10:37:15 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson