Volcano's lava dome partially collapses - Mount Merapi

AP on Yahoo ^ | 6/12/06 | Robert Kennedy - ap

[Strategerist]

There's a book called "Volcano Cowboys" about the USGS and Mt. St. Helens, Pinatubo, and I think Nevado del Ruiz in Columbia, and about their prediction attempts, etc.

They had the easiest time at Pinatubo because it was easy to get the Air Force leadership to understand the science involved, because of their educational background.

[Strategerist]

http://www.drgeorgepc.com/TsunamiMegaEvaluation.html

A good article about the collapse megatsunami threat....

There are some serious problems with the modeling of the La Palma waves...and this guy isn't the only guy that has pointed this out...

But the media (And crappy cable science documentaries) consistently ignore the doubters and present a sensationalized one-sided story.

[metmom]

I recall from the video that one of the real concerns they had was if their prediction didn't pan out. The locals who evacuated would not the next time and there would be a tremendous loss of life. The volcano blew just at the end of the warning period, just before people would have been going back to their villages.

Probably, the military bases had some impact because if they were moving out, it would cause the locals to think twice. It's been a long time since I've watched it; I'll have to plug it in again. It was so good that a college geology professor friend of mine borrowed it to show his classes.

[BIGLOOK]

Since Merapi is steep the danger to the population below is increased. If Merapi's cone collapses and forms a caldera, things might settle down but there'd sure be a big shake locally.

Obviously Merapi isn't a dome volcano, but do you know if it's Andesite or Basaltic?

[MHGinTN]

As with most 'good science' the offering of counter theories is useful and generally leads to better understanding. I read the link ... thanks for the alternate view. The Lituya Bay collapse was from an altitude and of a mass capable of transferring a huge amount of energy directly to wave propagation. It appears the La Palma mass isn't arranged so precariously, but I'll keep reading up on it.