Posted on 06/15/2006 7:02:00 AM PDT by strategofr
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Iraqi PM is preparing major announcement Thursday night of full amnesty to all Iraqi armed groups which lay down arms
This offer was agreed in Nouri al-Mailiki’s talks with US President George W. Bush in Baghdad Tuesday, June 13. Some of the smaller guerrilla groups are already committed to the deal.
DEBKAfile reports from Baghdad: Iraqi National Security Adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie issued his assessment of al Qaeda’s fading prospects Thursday in order to persuade more insurgent groups to come forward and take up the government’s offer.
Ansar al Sunna, the largest Iraqi group federated with al Qaeda, has already struck back by murdering the prime minister’s cousin, Sabah al-Maliki, commander of the Shiite Badr Force Organization in western Iraq.
http://www.loc.gov/rr/hispanic/1898/aguinaldo.html ~ stuff about when such an effort worked.
May not "work", but it will also serve as a way of showing that he gave them a chance before he went in and killed a bunch of them...
Hmm, isn't Debka Jason Leopold's "secret source"?
A good strategy, he gave them the chance. There will be some that accept it and the ones that don't can't come back later and whine when they're getting blown away.
Anything from Debka should be posted under humor.
There has to be a lot of fence sitters out there who were waiting to see which way the tide goes. Good move.
I agree with that. I don't think this is aimed so much at hard core al Qaida as Iraqi's that have taken up their cause and Iraqi's that belong to the tribal militias.
A ploy to seperate the desperate from the hard core.
Worked for Lincoln after the Civil War. Even if it works for half of the militant groups, it's worth it. If someone picks up arms after this offer, death should be imminant. No more chances or lines in the sand.
Not so sure.
Will have a tremendous psychological impact.
While I will be the first to argue that Iraq and Vietnam are NOT the same, it did work successfully, to a considerable degree, in Vietnam.
"Chieu Hoi" (Open Arms Program)
Extensive psy ops program which netted valuable info and got lots of non-hard core (and even a sprinkling of upper echelon) troops to give themselves up.
For the most part, they were treated well by RVN Gov't and every Chieu Hoi, was one less VC and (yes, many) NVA we had to contend with.
I know from personal experience as an Interrogator that we got a lot of valuable (strategic) Intel.--especially those from North Vietnam--from "Returnees" and while Islamofacist from other countries will NOT be candidates for this program, indigenous Iraqis who may be tired of the fight and be willing to take a chance on new Gov't, just might decide that enough is enough and will accept this offer.
IMO, there are two reasons gubmints offer amnesty: 1) they can't beat the enemy, so they're looking for a compromise to stay in power; 2) they're kicking the sh** out of the enemy and want to close out the war and start living large.
Judging from the Iraqi NSA's bold statements today, it seems like 2) might - God willing! - be the case here.
It's also a good way to get across the idea that we are winning, not them.
Thanks rear well-considered replies. I'll admit my initial comment was somewhat flippant and not connected with too much thought. There are indeed a number of ways this might be effective.
Having said that, I must add that I tend not to interpret the events occurring in Iraq at "face value". I see the Russians having tremendous influence on both of the major factions in Iraq.
The Iranians are largely a Russian client at this time. That means, in my opinion, the Russians have a good pipeline of information about what is happening in the Shi'ite factions in Iraq and a lot of influence about what goes on in them---albeit without knowledge of the Iraqi Shi'ites themselves.
Saddam's intelligence and secret police and military infrastructures were largely constructed by the Russians when Saddam was a Russian client. I believe the Russians maintain a strong connection to these groups and significant control---probably partly exercised through terrorist intermediaries that the Russians maintain contact with an exercise significant control over.
I know, I've heard all about Beslan and the Chechnyans and how the Russians are as committed to the war against terrorism as we are. And I realize that what Wahhibism is 300 years old.
But a couple of other facts seem more important to me. 1) Pre-1991, most of the terrorism in the 20th century can be traced back to the Russians. While we lack a lot of detailed information about how the Russians ran terrorists in the 20th century (at least to my knowledge, and if somebody wants to point me to a book to dispel my ignorance, please do), it would be practically certain that control over terrorist groups would have been primarily exercised by the KGB, that is to say, the same people who run Russia today.
From an article in the Wall Street Journal, page 1, Wednesday, February 23, 2005:
"Mr. Putin him self served more than 15 years in the KGB and later headed its successor, the FSB [actually, the KGB split onto 2 organizations, the SVR (international, like the CIA) and the FSB (national, like the FBI).] Since taking over the Kremlin in 2000, he has presided over an unprecedented influx of ex-KGB men into the upper echelons of power---men whose formative years were spent learning how to undermine the West's interests.
Prominent among the ex-KGB officials who now pace the Kremlin's corridors are Defense minister Sergei Ivanov, Interior Minister Rahid Nurgaliev, and FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev, as well as the heads of Russia's arms-export, defense-procurement, and drug-enforcement agencies. A close Putin aide and former KGB man, Victor Ivano, serves on the board of flagship airline OAO Aeroflot. A favorite parlor game in Russia is to divine which other senior officials and businessmen have suspicious gaps in their resume that suggest a past with the intelligence services."
I do know that the GRU played a major role in training terrorists inside Russia (Spetsnaz, Suvorov (1987), p 93) and I have yet to read any article implying any changes in the GRU since the collapse of the Soviet Union. (Unlike the KGB, renamed the FSB (domestic)/ SVR (foreign), I have never even heard of new and initials being given to the GRU.)
In addition, while Wahibbism may be 300 years old, I find it interesting that until 1991, it was apparently never behind an act of terror (as far as I'm aware of). Since the breakup of the Soviet union however, these people who were quiescent for three centuries have erupted to become the primary terrorists throughout the world.
I find this coincidence to be interesting to say the least. Rather than coincidence, I believe the KGB penetrated the Wahhibists pre-1991 to prepare them for their role of taking over terrorism once the Soviet Union no longer existed and Russia would officially become "anti-terrorist".
Given the way I look at the situation in Iraq (admittedly, if you of a very tiny minority), I feel that the main driver of what is going on there is Russian strategy. I see the main purpose being pursued as the election of Hillary.
As such, I believe we are currently undergoing a period of "honey", drawing us back into a greater ground involvement for our troops in Iraq---the ultimate purpose being a Tet-style offensive in November, 2008 to put Hillary and the White House.
""Won't work."
Not so sure.
Will have a tremendous psychological impact.
While I will be the first to argue that Iraq and Vietnam are NOT the same, it did work successfully, to a considerable degree, in Vietnam.
"Chieu Hoi" (Open Arms Program)
Extensive psy ops program which netted valuable info and got lots of non-hard core (and even a sprinkling of upper echelon) troops to give themselves up.
For the most part, they were treated well by RVN Gov't and every Chieu Hoi, was one less VC and (yes, many) NVA we had to contend with.
I know from personal experience as an Interrogator that we got a lot of valuable (strategic) Intel.--especially those from North Vietnam--from "Returnees" and while Islamofacist from other countries will NOT be candidates for this program, indigenous Iraqis who may be tired of the fight and be willing to take a chance on new Gov't, just might decide that enough is enough and will accept this offer."
Thanks for your interesting feedback. You may well have a point. Please see my general response, just above here.
"Worked for Lincoln after the Civil War."
To my knowledge, no foreign power supported the South after the Civil War. To the credit of the most prestigious Southern leaders, I do not believe any of them opted to continue rebellion once the peace treaty was signed.
"Even if it works for half of the militant groups, it's worth it."
True, if the effects can be "irreversible". Which leads to your next comment...
"If someone picks up arms after this offer, death should be imminant. No more chances or lines in the sand."
Is this realistic? Haven't there been many lines in the sand in the past? I suppose if one buys the view that our enemy is nearly finished in Iraq, this works. Personally, I believe this view is illusion. Please see my general comments, two comments up from this.
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